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VA/WVA/MD/DC CHRISTMAS 2010 OBS THREAD


Midlo Snow Maker

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When can we expect a JEBWALK!!!

Already been on TWO jebwalks this morning. The thin snowpack looks great; wet roads are breaking my heart.

One of the greatest features of a good snowstorm is the image of me walking fast on an epic jebwalk in a frigid, 8 inch per hour blizzard at 4.6 miles per hour whilst motorists are at a standstill for hours. It's the evergreen image of the Jebman walking faster than traffic in a snowstorm, all while strong NE winds pile up drifts on the roadways and I effortlessly stroll through the drifts, earnestly praying for more snow and a faster phase.

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Just noticed something later this week - That is, towards new years - Please don't look now but I'd suggest - get out in this snow tomorrow and enjoy it to the full, because bad news lurks on the horizon. Thursday and Friday Dec 30-31 a LOT milder, maybe even milder than climo avgs lurks - and I don't even want to think about what we might face if overnight lows in that timeframe get well above frzg, which they likely shall, between snowpack and additional moisture...........

I tremble at what one may find - or not find - up near Greenland on all of the models - in that timeframe.

Yeah.

I live in the SOUTHERN Mid Atl.

This aint New England.

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Just noticed something later this week - That is, towards new years - Please don't look now but I'd suggest - get out in this snow tomorrow and enjoy it to the full, because bad news lurks on the horizon. Thursday and Friday Dec 30-31 a LOT milder, maybe even milder than climo avgs lurks - and I don't even want to think about what we might face if overnight lows in that timeframe get well above frzg, which they likely shall, between snowpack and additional moisture...........

I tremble at what one may find - or not find - up near Greenland on all of the models - in that timeframe.

Yeah.

I live in the SOUTHERN Mid Atl.

This aint New England.

All of the eastern seaboard is in the same boat event (even SNE); but, it looks to reload the block after.

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I think we're mostly in nowcast mode. I don't know how much more insight guidance can give us at this point in... well, maybe the RUC.

It all depends on where she bombs... if the bomb occurs as its approaching our latitude, look out. If further north, it's probably no worse than modeled this morning.

I also think we can get some bonus snows on the overrunning. Hopefully the convection is undermodeled and that helps to wind the upper energy up sooner near the GOM.

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I think we're mostly in nowcast mode. I don't know how much more insight guidance can give us at this point in... well, maybe the RUC.

It all depends on where she bombs... if the bomb occurs as its approaching our latitude, look out. If further north, it's probably no worse than modeled this morning.

I also think we can get some bonus snows on the overrunning. Hopefully the convection is undermodeled and that helps to wind the upper energy up sooner near the GOM.

Mesoanalysis is going to be pretty useful too. Take a look at some current maps. -

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Anyone got any insight on ratios with this beastie? FWIW I'm NE of Balt near the M/D line--guessing better here than closer to/below the fall line (but don't really have a clue).

If we can get into the good omegas, I think we have a shot at great ratios as the temps around 600-650mb will be near -15C. I'd say maybe 10-12:1 as it stands, but if we get the omegas maybe 15-17:1?

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