VA/WVA/MD/DC CHRISTMAS 2010 OBS THREAD

[mitchnick]

Seems to me slow should be good.. More time for the low to develop and trough to turn. I'm kinda limited by iPhone viewing for now tho. I would like the bands a bit more west but others should develop. 850s are good .. Kinda marginal still at the sfc but that should resolve with precip.

no, I agree that slower is good

as the storm moves up the coast, the precip shield is pivoting to the NW

one would think the slower the storm moves north the better the chance for the area of precip to get further west since it has more time to pivot

we'll see

mother nature is surely making us work for this one

[Ian]

i would think slow would bre good, Shows its intensifying and not going to fast. This should be a good snowfall for cent md and I-95. Just waiting for it to start>

The very best solutions were all a bit later here.. Euro Blizz didn't happen till evening/night

[mdsnowlover]

The RUC is gut-wrenching for the weenies. It'll look like its going to shut off before the storm really ramps up, slows to stops the 700 low, and keeps us in the wraparound for a while longer. That looks like the best case scenario for us. The NMM and ARW show something similar, but with the slowdown occurring further north. We have to hope for the RUC description at this point.

ah we get what we get. That looks good to me but I,m no met. Not going to worry about it.

[MN Transplant]

I can't get into the HRRR site. Down for anyone else?

[aldie 22]

The very best solutions were all a bit later here.. Euro Blizz didn't happen till evening/night

I was surprised at how far south the moisture still was this morning when I woke up. I honestly expected to see a huge slug off to the east moving due north by now. Weenie hope especially for back here but I would imagine this is a positive and any positive at this point is a good thing.

[CAPE]

Just because you doesn't have the heavy heavy banding doesn't mean you can't get a 4-8/6-10 inch snow. The areas where those mesoscale bands are to set up are looking at over a ft easy.

Sure anything is possible, but. good luck getting anywhere near 8-10 for I-95 or west with a fast moving low tracking a couple hundred miles east of the coast.

[aldie 22]

12ruc has 996 low just east of obx...shouldn't that be a good spot most times?

[mitchnick]

I know its accuwx, but I find when it has return over you, you are usually snowing

it looks pretty good with decent return heading due north

http://www.accuweather.com/us/radar/r1h/kwbc/radar.asp?play=true

also, this really shows the capture of the SLP is in process

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/na-wv-loop.html

[mitchnick]

12ruc has 996 low just east of obx...shouldn't that be a good spot most times?

with the capture of the SLP as displayed in my post above, absolutely

something keeps telling me this is going to end up more like 1/25/00 (but w/o the steroids) than I thought last night

[mdsnowlover]

by that radar return we still have a couple of hours before it atrats.

[mitchnick]

by that radar return we still have a couple of hours before it atrats.

RUC has been advertising around an 11-12 start ever since last night

BUT, current RUC forecasts has the snow over us through hr. 18

[TowsonWeather]

Sure anything is possible, but. good luck getting anywhere near 8-10 for I-95 or west with a fast moving low tracking a couple hundred miles east of the coast.

Have you read the last few pages of this thread at all?

[mitchnick]

8AM.....998 Pressure at HAT?

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=cur&region=at

[aldie 22]

ruc drops it to 992 at hour 8 almost looks like it slows it down and drifts a bit SE before moving N again. Appears to be 50 miles or so off the coast of O.C at hour 8. Baltimore might like the ruc a lot

[Fozz]

Sure anything is possible, but. good luck getting anywhere near 8-10 for I-95 or west with a fast moving low tracking a couple hundred miles east of the coast.

I don't think anyone is expecting 8"+ west of I-95. I've given up on that a while ago.

[aldie 22]

Hour 9-12 the low deepens from 992 down to 984 starting rapidly around I think just off of the Delaware coast just south of Jersey. Looks like our best snow if at all is during that time unless we get some serious wraparound later

[Ian]

SREF kinda meh

[North Balti Zen]

Slower def better for us. Always was. Hoping it takes its time moving north and bombs out soon.

[Ian]

Never been a huge fan if the RUC after the first few hrs of the run

[jlewis1111]

sref def drier but slower

[aldie 22]

SREF kinda meh

Yeah...1-2 at best back here...ok back to reality. Good luck up North!! Enjoy

[PhineasC]

SREF kinda meh

What does it have for me?

[ravensrule]

Yeah...1-2 at best back here...ok back to reality. Good luck up North!! Enjoy

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

[Ian]

What does it have for me?

.5 or so

[aldie 22]

What does it have for me?

you look to be near the .5 line

[Fozz]

What does it have for me?

0.5"

[PhineasC]

.5 or so

Sounds like it just tightened up the western edge.

[Ian]

Sounds like it just tightened up the western edge.

Mostly

[Dr No]

Other than not seeing snow when I got up... I was surprised at how the storm has slowed. I see the predictions of missing to the east that I read last night has failed... its clearly moving into here.

[Ellinwood]

So this one time the snow was on our doorstep and everyone was still watching the models instead of the radar...

STORM MODE: NOWCASTING

Models be damned.