Dalfy Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 latest 500 map overlayed with surface map this was taken around 1:40 am looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Thoughts on whether Balt dc get bumped to a wwa in a few hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I don't know anymore. But I do worry the Philly-New York crew, has very high expectations. I am starting to worry (for them) that this may not be a repeat of a combination (for them) of the Blizzard of 2006 and the Blizzard 1978 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Not that it means anything in the long run, but radar presentation could be worse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Just got home to Queenstown, MD... roads are starting to get really slippery... about .5" on non-road surfaces and its just flurries right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Thoughts on whether Balt dc get bumped to a wwa in a few hours? No way. Once they go warning they rarely go back. Maybe tomorrow afternoon if it's clear that there won't be widespread 5"+ areas they'll downgrade those counties. But because there has been little talk about the storm and the amount of travel that will occur tomorrow, they will be more inclined to leave them up to alert the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 SREF holds serve? I could be reading something wrong, 3AM ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 SREF holds serve? I could be reading something wrong, 3AM ftw They actually look like they came even a little more west, get some sleep and hopefully when we wake up tomorrow it will be snowing nicely and the SREFs will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 They actually look like they came even a little more west, get some sleep and hopefully when we wake up tomorrow it will be snowing nicely and the SREFs will verify. Yeah I was about to say... they look even wetter I'm trying not to be a Big Juicy Hotdog... but that low off the SC coast looks like it wants to go boom very soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yeah I was about to say... they look even Wetter...... That low down off the SC coast looks like its ready to go Boom any minute Yup and the 6Z RUC looks perfect, if either the RUC or the SREFs verify we will be golden if not we will probably only get 4 or 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yup and the 6Z RUC looks perfect, if either the RUC or the SREFs verify we will be golden if not we will probably only get 4 or 5 inches. You'll double my accumulations easy bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 You'll double my accumulations easy bro I am a good bit more east than you but im sure i will only end up with an inch or 2 more then you max. We are in this together we need it where the RUC or SREFs show it or it will not be a major event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Nws out with Update when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I am a good bit more east than you but im sure i will only end up with an inch or 2 more then you max. We are in this together we need it where the RUC or SREFs show it or it will not be a major event. Man I hope so... Man I'm huggin that SREF! The event starts in 5 hours... and the SREF/NAM are so different, and I can't find what the heck the problem is. NAM is a bit too weak, yes, but can that account for the huge shift? ECMWF was a disaster, RGEM was not good. If I'm going to give weight to a model, given the feeback errors in the american models, Seems like Major Storm:Nusance event is probably weighted 3:2 in probability? Thats just my personal idea, which means I'm probably wrong.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 New wsw says 5-8 inches.. fine by me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 You all need to go to bed... you'll miss all of the snow falling later! Thinking of lowering my DC/MoCo forecast back to my original 2-4" from the 3-6" I had adjusted it to earlier. It'll be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Man I hope so... Man I'm huggin that SREF! The event starts in 5 hours... and the SREF/NAM are so different, and I can't find what the heck the problem is. NAM is a bit too weak, yes, but can that account for the huge shift? ECMWF was a disaster, RGEM was not good. If I'm going to give weight to a model, given the feeback errors in the american models, Seems like Major Storm:Nusance event is probably weighted 3:2 in probability? Thats just my personal idea, which means I'm probably wrong.... Well the SREFs verify second best with QPF inside 24 hours and Wes loves them so that is good enough for me to hope for a bigger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 SREFs slightly east of previous run. RUC still looks good (FWIW), especially late today/evening. At this point, it's RUC-----FTW. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 You all need to go to bed... you'll miss all of the snow falling later! Thinking of lowering my DC/MoCo forecast back to my original 2-4" from the 3-6" I had adjusted it to earlier. It'll be close. You know a hell of alot more than me, but i would leave it at 3-6" it is likely you will see atleast 3 in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 with hardly no wind today measuring should have not been a problem, tomorrow however could be a different story Officially 2.8" at KRIC yesterday which makes it the snowiest Christmas Day since 1962 when 4.3" fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 this looks nice, flow really starting to back http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/east/animation/goeseastwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdwx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 405 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC AS IT MOVES FROM NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NO CHGS TO PREV WINTER HEADLINES...WINTER STORM WRNG NOW OUT FOR MD A/E OF I-95...DC AND IMMEDIATE SUBURBS...AND KING GEORGE CNTY VA. WINTER WX ADZY OUT FOR RMNDR OF AREA...XPCT FOR NRN POTOMAC HIGHLANDS/NRN SHEN VLY...WHERE ADZY TAKES EFFECT AT 11Z. SEE /WBCWSWLWX/ FOR MORE DETAILS. 1000MB LOPRES NOW FULLY DVLPG AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OFFSHORE ILM...PERHAPS A BIT FASTER AND FURTHER W THAT 0Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. OVERALL SOLN FOR SYSTEMS EVLN. CNTR OF COASTAL SYSTEM SHUD PASS SVRL HUNDRED KM E OF DELMARVA MIDDAY...THEN APPROACH SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST AFTER SUNSET TNGT AS AT LEAST A 970MB LOW. 6Z NAM PERHAPS REFLECTS AFOREMENTIONED SFC ANALYSIS...AND JOGS PRECIP A BIT BACK TO THE W OF PREV RUN...HWVR...THIS ONLY TAKES PROJECTED PATH BACK TO SIMILAR TO 12/18 AGO...THUS ONLY MINOR FCST ADJUSTMENTS WARRANTED. CREPT PROJECTED SN ACCUMULATIONS DOWN SLIGHTLY...AS 5-8 INCHES APPEARS MORE FEASIBLE IN WRNG AREA...WITH 2-4 FOR A COUPLE OF TIERS OF CNTYS TO THE WEST OF WRNG. EARLY BAND/S OF -SN ACRS SRN CWA HAVE DIMINISHED...BUT MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING FROM MAIN LOPRES SPREADING N THRU CNTRL VA...AND SHUD REACH SE CWA BY 10-11Z. GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS EXTRAPOLATION TAKES THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LIGHT SN TO MASON/DIXON LINE BY 14-15Z...THO KEEPS IT MAINLY E OF BLUE RIDGE. MDT/HVY SN POTENTIAL SVRL HRS AFTR PRECIP ONSET...THIS AFTN/EVE...WITH BEST CHCS FOR BANDG ENHANCED TOTALS A/E OF I-95 CORRIDOR...WHERE WRNG IN EFFECT. THE WRNMOST MESOSCALE BAND SHUD MARK EDGE OF TIGHT GRADIENT OF ACCUMULATIONS...WITH ONLY 1-4 INCHES XPCD POINTS TO THE W. STILL SOME DOUBT IN HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL W OF BLUE RIDGE...BUT GOOD LIFT AHEAD OF H5 CLOSED LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE RGN THIS AFTN/EVE SUGGEST ADZY CRITERIA SHUD BE MET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Good news potentially for you guys, Taunton has dropped the WSW for the Cape and Islands and is worried about rain into Plymouth and other South coast areas...Montauk NY up to 33...this could be a version of 12/30/00 with a much better ending for the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Failure appears imminent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Definitely going to be a close call here - storm is rapidly starting to intensify and the energy at 500mb looks to be injecting into the main low pressure from my untrained look at the current spc meso analysis meso source. I'd think you'd want to see an expansion of the precip shield slightly to the NW in order to get a good portion of the DC metro area. Then again I just read the disco from the local met office and their near hit call. Hope it's not one of those agonizing storms where the nice returns on the radar don't quite make it in. Anyways about to leave north jersey to drive down (for family) - blizz warnings up here and looking like it's going to be a major hit. Radar starting to show a north push along the coast-line. Edit: Also FWIW and not to be too weenie lol but the RUC was kinda a leader up in boston and the cape for the most recent storm which was expected to be too far out to sea but ended up powerful enough to throw back some hvy bands to hit the cape pretty hard with 12 in. and give boston a glancing blow of 1-4 in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdwx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'm think up to 10in right along the western bay.. 14in Eastern Shore.. Keep in mind this max totals not general.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 New SPC meso indicates low may end up west of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 This thing is taking its sweet time getting up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 New SPC meso indicates low may end up west of guidance. Yep Ian and it is moving slow giving the trough time to go negative tilt, I like the upper level steering currents as well as it would bring a RUC like track of the low displaced only about 20-30 miles to the east of what the model had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Failure appears imminent Yep. I can see the band of clouds east from my bedroom window rush by. It's a hugh bust all around for every single person involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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