mitchnick Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Does Band over SW VA Movng NW mean anything airmass wise? imho, there's clearly dry air getting entrained into areas north of Fredericksburg that's why I think that band never makes it north overnight per computers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 imho, there's clearly dry air getting entrained into areas north of Fredericksburg that's why I think that band never makes it north overnight per computers There can't be that much dry air left if humidities are in the 60s and 70s around DCA and IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Just remember that even those who get the biggest fringing still see snow. I used some pretty high ratios though...could take an inch off of each of those ranges honestly..you are right though even the worst model run gives most some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 There can't be that much dry air left if humidities are in the 60s and 70s around DCA and IAD 700MB. the closed low in PA is killing us now - west wind up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 700MB. the closed low in PA is killing us now - west wind up there. You are right, I forgot. 02z RUC at 3 hrs gets DCA into 90% RH though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I've only gotten 2 inches from this so far--and literally since 5 am had snow falling every hour. When the coastal gets cranking, it literally RIPS all the moisture out of the VA west of 95... (Best depicted on the NAM) This happens some times, but not all times. You are going to kill me for this, but over the years I have come to view reports that you are getting screwed as great news for my backyard. Same with weathervswife. It is just one of those climo things. It seems like when you get dry-slotted or pingers that means the storm is wrapping up south of me or going more north than progged. I'm sure PA posters do the same to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Temp 29.8 Light/moderate snow - 2.0" on the nose All surfaces covered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 You are going to kill me for this, but over the years I have come to view reports that you are getting screwed as great news for my backyard. Same with weathervswife. It is just one of those climo things. It seems like when you get dry-slotted or pingers that means the storm is wrapping up south of me or going more north than progged. I'm sure PA posters do the same to me. We've not really gotten screwed..the BEST GFS ENS Mean put the .75 line at my doorstep. Most moved back and had between .25 and 5 since then. 2-4 was my call and looks like we get high side in that amount. When the coastal cranks up, it pulls all the RH towards the low and dries my region out--at that point you guys need the CCB-- or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 With my location further west, I look to this radar to see whats in store when a storm's forecast to graze me on the western edge of the precip shield. Unfortunately, when I look at it tonight... http://radar.weather...id=rlx&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 LWX discussion sounds like they want to lower amounts and maybe change headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 LWX discussion sounds like they want to lower amounts and maybe change headlines. Only based on the NAM. GFS is key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 You are going to kill me for this, but over the years I have come to view reports that you are getting screwed as great news for my backyard. Same with weathervswife. It is just one of those climo things. It seems like when you get dry-slotted or pingers that means the storm is wrapping up south of me or going more north than progged. I'm sure PA posters do the same to me. Heaviest snow of the event RIGHT NOW!!!! It would be a joke if it weren't true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Only based on the NAM. GFS is key. Such a volatile situation. Tiny adjustments equal a lot of movement down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 LWX discussion sounds like they want to lower amounts and maybe change headlines. Not surprising..........I thought 6-10" was too much, and was based on the outdated runs that gave BWI a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 After having tracked storms here in western VA for years, I must say I like how the radar is looking for us right now. I think our 2-4 busts low, esp over 1500 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Not surprising..........I thought 6-10" was too much. Same. They've already taken us to 4-8" in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The storm already looks impressive over the southeast with good moisture inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 LWX discussion sounds like they want to lower amounts and maybe change headlines. This is the sort of storm LWX normally busts badly on. It would be typical for them to go too big, cut way back to WWAs, and then be caught flat-footed (e.g., calling for 3 inches with 5 already down) tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Not surprising..........I thought 6-10" was too much, and was based on the outdated runs that gave BWI a foot. The consensus earlier today was that BWI received between .5 and .75, which would easily give 6-10 with good ratios. The areas that might need any adjustment are to the west. If the GFS holds to its earlier runs, I see no reason to bail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Same. They've already taken us to 4-8" in the forecast. Yes........that 6-10" was a general forecast for the entire warning area. Kent County could see a foot, while Baltimore county gets as little as 3-4" on the western border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yes........that 6-10" was a general forecast for the entire warning area. Kent County could see a foot, while Baltimore county gets as little as 3-4" on the western border. You are already annoying. Shut up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 This is the sort of storm LWX normally busts badly on. It would be typical for them to go too big, cut way back to WWAs, and then be caught flat-footed (e.g., calling for 3 inches with 5 already down) tomorrow. True.. But I still remember last year leading up to Feb. 10 when LWX came out of the box, like only a few hours after Feb. 6 ended, stating 10 to 20 inches from DC to Baltimore. Everyone thought they were crazy, but they stuck to their guns for like 2 to 3 days in a row -- even after that dismal night of radar/sleet watching the night before. They ended up nailing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 True.. But I still remember last year leading up to Feb. 10 when LWX came out of the box, like only a few hours after Feb. 6 ended, stating 10 to 20 inches from DC to Baltimore. Everyone thought they were crazy, but they stuck to their guns for like 2 to 3 days in a row -- even after that dismal night of radar/sleet watching the night before. They ended up nailing it. I wouldn't know lol...I was sitting in a powerless 38 degree house with a dying cell phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 You are already annoying. Shut up. Cutoffs are annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I am missing the blizzard in NYC by one day, which sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I am missing the blizzard in NYC by one day, which sucks Same, I got a flight out of JFK weds, going there Tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Btw, how many of y'all had a white Christmas? We still had about 1.5 in from the snow last week left on the ground, it snowed a little this morning, and now it's snowing again. Can't really ask for better Christmas weather. You stupid Yankee. Go back to New York City. Every good southerner knows it's ya'll... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Lmao Kevin, my iPad corrects it to y'all so that's gotta be correct. I will go weller on yo @ss, it's a contraction of you and all, hence, y'all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 GFS looks to be wide right. LWX to lower amounts? We shall see. I will take an inch or two and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Same, I got a flight out of JFK weds, going there Tues Yea I'm gonna try to take the train up on Tuesday, we'll see how that goes. Still steady snow here, approaching an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.