MidlothianWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Snow is now increasing in rate. Probably light-moderate at this point. Beginning to stick to surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WINTER STORM WARNING DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The 18Z NAM IS west (look at the 850s at the NC coast)... no doubt... much better at the surface, but still has that convective feedback look. I'd guess it would still not give us alot of QPF because of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 8:07 PM, Dr No said: The 18Z NAM IS west (look at the 850s at the NC coast)... no doubt... much better at the surface, but still has that convective feedback look. I'd guess it would still not give us alot of QPF because of that. Definitely looks much better than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 7:43 PM, mitchnick said: SREF's very consistent with 9z run Fairly consistent, but an eastward jog. Data starting with 12z on most models has been east. We need some actual weather obs or 18z model data that stops this trend (you can put me in the paranoid category). MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 8:05 PM, yoda said: WINTER STORM WARNING DC More info? Does it not include me? In MoCo? I don't see a thing on NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 8:17 PM, Kmlwx said: More info? Does it not include me? In MoCo? I don't see a thing on NWS. No. And not me either. Check the zones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 8:18 PM, yoda said: No. And not me either. Check the zones Takes a minute for the IT people to update the products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 7:50 PM, Ger said: NYC-BOS will win this one, we won three over them last year-- I can take the loss. Still, I'm hoping for an advanced bomb not currently predicted by models to bring us in on the goods. Or even a 2/12/2006 situation where the deformation band stretches down to our CWA even after it passes our latitude. This has always looked like a storm where easterly longitude would pay off. The question really has been, how much more snow would fall the farther NE you go from here. Earlier it looked like everyone would would get a good dump. It now looks like an increasingly larger disparity is developing in the snow amounts from SW to NE. Hopefully, obs and 18z data will close the gap again. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Lovin' it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 8:19 PM, Ger said: Takes a minute for the IT people to update the products. Yes, warning for DC and up 95 and east. Advisory Montgomery/Fairfax. (wouldn't be surprised if they move to warning at some point, however) , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Low is deepening... down to 1008 now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 8:24 PM, real said: Yes, warning for DC and up 95 and east. Advisory Montgomery/Fairfax. (wouldn't be surprised if they move to warning at some point, however) , Gah. I just wanted my first warning of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looks good LWX considering the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Damn folks the pivot on this thing will keep RIC in this band for a little while longer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Bombing low with a great track. Models can't time precisely when this is going negative. I have a feeling we're seriously in the game. Just a slight change in timing can still hit us pretty hard. PHL - NYC getting destroyed is pretty much a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 And it doesn't seem like we have to deal with much virga. I think when that precip in Southern Va gets here, it will start quickly falling as snow, and accumulate at least lightly from the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 8:28 PM, MidlothianWX said: Damn folks the pivot on this thing will keep RIC in this band for a little while longer... RIC reporting 1/2 mile visibility.....certainly picking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 8:32 PM, real said: And it doesn't seem like we have to deal with much virga. I think when that precip in Southern Va gets here, it will start quickly falling as snow, and accumulate at least lightly from the start. Where is "here"? Could you put your location in your profile so we know where you're posting from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 8:27 PM, caviman2201 said: Low is deepening... down to 1008 now... lower than proged for certain this is good, this is very good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 8:35 PM, mitchnick said: lower than proged for certain this is good, this is very good Isn't that also a tad more south than progged? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 its like that Low is bombing already in the Gulf of Mexico, sheesh http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 8:37 PM, mitchnick said: its like that Low is bombing already in the Gulf of Mexico, sheesh http://weather.unisy...=3p&inv=0&t=cur I love your analysis mitch, keep it up. By the way, snow intensity has slightly increased here. Non-road surfaces are being covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 8:37 PM, Kmlwx said: Isn't that also a tad more south than progged? maybe on the southern end of where the models put it,but the models are never that precise I just like the fact that the pressure is lower than proged and thye pressures are clearly falling pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 8:35 PM, mitchnick said: lower than proged for certain this is good, this is very good Crazy huh? Who would have thought? Damn storm broke our weenie hearts TWICE and now it looks like the MA gets hit pretty damn good. Our odds of getting into some really heavy snow are going up every hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 8:37 PM, mitchnick said: its like that Low is bombing already in the Gulf of Mexico, sheesh http://weather.unisy...=3p&inv=0&t=cur Low is already 4mb or so stronger than 12z GFS/18z NAM had it at this point FWIW... 18z NAM only had a 1008 at hr 6 and a tiny circle at that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 8:38 PM, MidlothianWX said: I love your analysis mitch, keep it up. By the way, snow intensity has slightly increased here. Non-road surfaces are being covered. thanks! Merry Christmas too we all need this one because there;'s a warm up coming over the next week and by New Year's day there will be a lot of mud I suspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 LWX Point and Click forecasts just issued show, when you combine Sunday and Sunday night, about 3 to 7 inches on west side of DC. But 4 to 8 on East side. About 5 to 9 for Anne Arundel County. 2 to 6 for Montgomery/Fairfax. And 5 to 11 for Baltimore City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That little chunk of northern stream energy in central TN/KY is going to help get us into the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 On 12/25/2010 at 8:40 PM, Nikolai said: Low is already 4mb or so stronger than 12z GFS/18z NAM had it at this point FWIW... 18z NAM only had a 1008 at hr 6 and a tiny circle at that... he!!, even the RUC has it too high with its hourly initialization! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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