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VA/WVA/MD/DC CHRISTMAS 2010 OBS THREAD


Midlo Snow Maker

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Been snowing for about last hour. Nice little dusty coating on everything, including street. Merry X-Mas everyone. What a fun, torturous, skitzofrenic week it has been. Enjoy your morning (until 12Z's come out) and lets get back to it later. Good luck everyone and a blessed Holiday to all. Even JI.

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Can someone explain in laymen's terms why it has been so difficult forecasting this storm? Even up until now, we seem to be back in the mix for accumulating snow. I followed the storms in February and they didn't seem to have this much uncertainty. It just seems that this storm has been a particular hard one to get a handle on. Thanking everyone in advance for their replies.

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Can someone explain in laymen's terms why it has been so difficult forecasting this storm? Even up until now, we seem to be back in the mix for accumulating snow. I followed the storms in February and they didn't seem to have this much uncertainty. It just seems that this storm has been a particular hard one to get a handle on. Thanking everyone in advance for their replies.

Explosive/rapid cyclogenesis is a sensitive process in its infant stages and when you're dealing with 4+ days out, only a relatively small change in upper level features can have a big impact on when and where that begins. In this case, the handling of the southernmost disturbance was fairly poor, and when combined with phasing and timing issues, resulted in a huge track spread across the major models (lots of confusion and uncertainty -- don't forget that our atmosphere is HIGHLY chaotic) Most often, the heaviest snows occur in a band only 100-150 miles wide (sometimes smaller than that), so even relatively small track changes can have big implications for snowfall accumulation at a particular spot.

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