cbmclean Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 26 minutes ago, CAPE said: This is horrific. Probably no shot until mid Feb. How did this happen? I actually can't tell, are you being overdramatic a la Ji,? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There may be a transient window of opportunity as the pac get begins to extend and a pna epo ridge goes up. It’s possible we sneak something in. Problem is after that the pattern compromise to progress and shift the ridge east and with a raging pos nao there is nothing to resist the warmth from coming across the whole continent. If we had a -nao it might force the pac jet to cut under and we would be ok for that same pacific look is hostile with a pos nao, The pna ridge just spreads out into a full conus ridge. Agree completely. That was mostly my point. There is a chance though(not a shit the blinds pattern), because of the favorable(as advertised) Pacific, but without NA help it is a thread the needle deal and we likely go back to mild for a time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I actually can't tell, are you being overdramatic a la Ji,? Never mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I actually can't tell, are you being overdramatic a la Ji,? Facetious. Damn you are the second one who didn't get it. I guess I have to do better. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, CAPE said: This is horrific. Probably no shot until mid Feb. How did this happen? Horrible winter. It’ll never snow again. We wrote off January and that turned out right. Maybe we can salvage with an 1” in March. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, nj2va said: Horrible winter. It’ll never snow again. We wrote off January and it turned out right. And 2 weeks ago we punted the rest of Jan 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, nj2va said: Horrible winter. It’ll never snow again. We wrote off January and it turned out right. Pretty far above avg snowfall for the month here! If only Feb could be normal.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Pretty far above avg snowfall for the month here! If only Feb could be normal.. If only PSU got that 1” of snow by Dec 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: If only PSU got that 1” of snow by Dec 1 I think he got 4 by the end of Dec so you DC area folk are fine! No correlation to my yard thankfully. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 the extension likely forces a -PNA that can lead to another blocking episode. combine with an Aleutian Low and slightly retracted jet and bang 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the extension likely forces a -PNA that can lead to another blocking episode. combine with an Aleutian Low and slightly retracted jet and bang Seems like it forces a +PNA to me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 37 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the extension likely forces a -PNA that can lead to another blocking episode. combine with an Aleutian Low and slightly retracted jet and bang So the +PNA/+NAO is going to lead to a -PNA that is going to lead to a -NAO, that is going to lead back to a +PNA? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Seems like it forces a +PNA to me. roll it forward a few days 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 There is at least a chance here because the Pacific is pretty favorable, and the NAO is so positive it contributes to a 50-50 low. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: roll it forward a few days Sure but the biggest problem is the NA. You don't think we would have a much more favorable h5 look with that Pacific and a -NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Sure but the biggest problem is the NA. You don't think we would have a much more favorable h5 look with that Pacific and a -NAO? i agree. and yes, the same point you mentioned in your last post is similar to March 2014 when the NAO was so positive that systems got suppressed the “+NAO is good” stuff is BS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i agree. and yes, the same point you mentioned in your last post is similar to March 2014 when the NAO was so positive that systems got suppressed the “+NAO is good” stuff is BS Usually antithetical to our desired outcome in the MA, but every once in awhile it can work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Usually antithetical to our desired outcome in the MA, but every once in awhile it can work. yes, I can see a lobe from the TPV extending and providing “fake” confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yes, I can see a lobe from the TPV extending and providing “fake” confluence Transient, well timed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 This stuff isn't binary. It's rarely just this OR that. Lots of in between possibilities. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 25 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: So the +PNA/+NAO is going to lead to a -PNA that is going to lead to a -NAO, that is going to lead back to a +PNA? Sounds legit lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Transient, well timed Were on a weird heater so we will probably thread the needle nowSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Gfs super close to a noreaster snow on Jan 31Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dendrimer77 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs super close to a noreaster snow on Jan 31 Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk You're not kidding! The LR definitely looks more interesting tonight. God willing man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just to be clear about the advertised Pac jet configuration, this is a jet extension with the core of the jet further east/exit region near the west coast, with an associated +PNA. This outcome can vary somewhat as there are also shifts poleward/equatorward associated Nina/Nino tendencies, which along with extensions/retractions are influenced by the location of tropical forcing(MJO). A few days later when the H5 pattern 'gets crappy' this is the jet configuration- a retracting/weaker jet core and the NPAC h5 trough expands/shifts eastward(-PNA) If the NA was more favorable at this point, the overall h5 pattern would be more acceptable for our purposes despite the -PNA. Not binary- we usually need more than just this or that - rather a blend- to increase snow chances. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 585dm Gulf of Alaska High Euro weeklies had like a 3std +PNA occurring through the month of February.. enso subsurface is cooling though. I have found there to be a +correlation with the N. Pacific pattern in now-time, with what the subsurface conditions are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 C mon guys we got models to look at 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Couple random thoughts. I always talk about personalities of winters in a broad sense. At this point, this winter has spoken to me. It simply doesn't want to snow much up and down the east coast. Different reasons at different times but same result. North of us is suffering bad and that isn't the elephant. It's just repeating endless crappy tracks and/or setups when it matters. If you zoom out and look at the continent, our Mid-Atlantic problems are just a slice of the bigger issues plagueing the east. Will that change? Will Feb deliver? Beats me but my gut instinct is it probably won't up and down the coast. Feel pretty good about additional snowfall here in Feb. Might get a big one. But imho, the east as a whole is going to have a hard time doing a 180 and going on a heater. We turned on a dime in 2015 but north of us was already on an epic heater and snowfall to our NW was plentiful. Nobody (except our little slice) up and down 95 has had any kind of heater so far. Sometimes it's just the breaks and that's what this feels like to me. Things aren't breaking right in a broad sense and that's just the way it goes. Upcoming pattern looks to be another temp reset which is normal in any January. Now it's looking more like a problem than a break though. We had a long stretch of broad AN heights in Canada in Dec. Ens guidance agrees on another period of that. The longer that pattern holds, the longer it will take to reset. We'll prob see the way out within a week but hard to say what that looks like yet. Guidance has completely dropped the well placed epo/pna ridge idea for now. A +pna and neutral NAO is enuff to snow in Feb. A big +nao can only "easily" be offset with a big ridge out west and perfect trough axis in the east. I'd like to think a +pna takes over for a while at some point in Feb. The idea has drifted but can most certainly snap back. I'm not making any predictions or spiking anything. It could turn and rip for 6 straight weeks up and down 95. But it tuff to expect that at this point. I'll just get real happy if it does but until the personality switches, it's hard to bet against it. 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Goofy ass evolution that will never happen, but 6z gfs gets it done Jan 30-31 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Goofy ass evolution that will never happen, but 6z gfs gets it done Jan 30-31 It is odd but hints are there on the ensembles. It's the only window where there is anything of interest outside of another mild/rainy period- flood threat maybe? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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