Ji Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 So how did this happen? Is this similar to delayed pattern change in December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 snows this week was cool and all but we all know what we are here looking for. One 30” nuke gets me to the 40” I was promised when I signed up for this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: 3 snows this week was cool and all but we all know what we are here looking for. One 30” nuke gets me to the 40” I was promised when I signed up for this winter. `15-16 storm had such a high precip content though, and it was gone in a week with mild temps. I will much rather take these 20s/10s arctic days. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, Ji said: So how did this happen? Is this similar to delayed pattern change in December? Stratosphere warmings have happened lately with a SE ridge in the +time to downwell, since 15-16.. Jan 22-28 NAO analogs show the +NAO coming is partially because of timing with the Strat warming (waxes and wanes). Beyond then, Feb has been severely impacted by the a La Nina global base state.. it's the decadal cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: `15-16 storm had such a high precip content though, and it was gone in a week with mild temps. I will much rather take these 20s/10s arctic days. 100% with you. This week has been a delight. Snow covering everything for a week and lots of cold. Snow on Snow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 2 hours ago, Ji said: So how did this happen? Is this similar to delayed pattern change in December? Nothing has happened yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 hours ago, Ji said: So how did this happen? Is this similar to delayed pattern change in December? Some are blaming the jet extension but imo the NAO going super positive for weeks was where it went sideways and wasn’t something I expected. We still have time if the pattern change on the gefs and eps ext don’t get can kicked but punting our 3 snowiest weeks of the year wasn’t in my playbook for this winter! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Some are blaming the jet extension but imo the NAO going super positive for weeks was where it went sideways and wasn’t something I expected. We still have time if the pattern change on the gefs and eps ext don’t get can kicked but punting our 3 snowiest weeks of the year wasn’t in my playbook for this winter! Agreed. And I am tired of trying to explain how a PAC jet extension isn't a bad thing in and of itself. So much parroted bad info from twitter(er, X ) I suppose. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Nothing has happened yet Is this a shit the blinds pattern? Pacific jet extensions are so awful. Good thing we have a ++NAO! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 This is horrific. Probably no shot until mid Feb. How did this happen? 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Some are blaming the jet extension but imo the NAO going super positive for weeks was where it went sideways and wasn’t something I expected. We still have time if the pattern change on the gefs and eps ext don’t get can kicked but punting our 3 snowiest weeks of the year wasn’t in my playbook for this winter! It's hard to keep track of what imperfection is just random/bad luck like the tpv (bad luck we thankfully overcame this week) and what's...the other thing. Which category would suddenly ++NAO fall under? (maybe the answer goes in the other thread, lol) And also...how does it fluctuate that much from deeply negative to super positive? (Unless it wasn't "deeply" negative) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: It's hard to keep track of what imperfection is just random/bad luck like the tpv (bad luck we thankfully overcame this week) and what's...the other thing. Which category would suddenly ++NAO fall under? (maybe the answer goes in the other thread, lol) And also...how does it fluctuate that much from deeply negative to super positive? (Unless it wasn't "deeply" negative) Predicting the NAO phase 2-weeks out is notoriously difficult. Very low skill. That said, in general an el Nino plus an easterly QBO favor -NAO periods. Solar activity also factors in. No guarantees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 24 minutes ago, CAPE said: This is horrific. Probably no shot until mid Feb. How did this happen? there was a +EAMT that overextended the jet. we’ll see a good pattern once the jet inevitably retracts, similar to what happened this week 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 imo our next window is feb 15-march 15 based off weeklies & adjusting it for the probable fact that it gets can kicked a bit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 So just out of curiosity, what did the pattern look like this week? What does a pattern where DC can get two snows with basically no temp issues and hold snow cover for a week look like? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: So just out of curiosity, what did the pattern look like this week? What does a pattern where DC can get two snows with basically no temp issues and hold snow cover for a week look like? -NAO/-AO that is rapidly becoming positive. PNA is neutral so not getting in the way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: So just out of curiosity, what did the pattern look like this week? What does a pattern where DC can get two snows with basically no temp issues and hold snow cover for a week look like? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: there was a +EAMT that overextended the jet. we’ll see a good pattern once the jet inevitably retracts, similar to what happened this week Being facetious dude. Read my recent posts. Nothing wrong with the Pac jet as advertised. This stuff is never 'perfect'. An extended jet is in fact a Nino thing, and favors a +PNA. Most seem to believe that is a necessity for cold and snow, so why all the negativity over extended jets? Possibly a lack of understanding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Being facetious dude. Read my recent posts. Nothing wrong with the Pac jet as advertised. This stuff is never 'perfect'. An extended jet is in fact a Nino thing, and favors a +PNA. Most seem to believe that is a necessity for cold and snow, so why all the negativity over extended jets? Possibly a lack of understanding.Twitter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, anotherman said: Twitter Yes. X though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 If one is gonna be bad, it’s better that it be the Atlantic. The flow that CAPE posted can produce cold temps and modest events, even if they are quick clippers and cutters. Canada doesn’t get flooded in that pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 imo our next window is feb 15-march 15 based off weeklies & adjusting it for the probable fact that it gets can kicked a bit though. I kinda think we don’t get to Feb 15 without two more threats. Will we stick the landing… probably not. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I kinda think we don’t get to Feb 15 without two more threats. Will we stick the landing… probably not. i think the look for jan 30 is pretty nice for a minor event here maybe, but mostly a new england setup tbh. the preceding airmass is so frigid though so i don't think this overextension will be as bad as the last where we went from an already warm airmass to even more warm this winter is shaping up to be great imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 14 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: You know, this isn’t exactly a textbook pattern that gets us salivating and staying up late for euro runs. Look at the weak aleutian ridge, retracted jet, and a central US trough with a downstream WAR. The only good thing was the -AO/-NAO block. Somehow we got the cold here far enough to suppress the SE ridge to prevent it from linking up with the NAO. It partly explains why we did not get a 20 inch KU, but it should give us hope that we can still find ways to snow even a nina-like pacific paired with a -NAO (kind of like the 1960s?) Funny, if you showed me this plot back in November without telling me what happened this week, I’d scoff with disappointment and think it’d just be yet another cutter. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I just love this field. We can't figure out exactly what will happen 2-3 days away, but we certainly know what's coming 2-3 weeks away. 3 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 8 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If one is gonna be bad, it’s better that it be the Atlantic. The flow that CAPE posted can produce cold temps and modest events, even if they are quick clippers and cutters. Canada doesn’t get flooded in that pattern That can work, esp for inland at elevation. My point is the bigger issue in the advertised pattern at day 10 is not the Pacific (it is pretty damn favorable-jet extension!!). If the NA was more favorable at that time (-NAO) the overall pattern would be more conducive to colder/snowier for the MA. This isn't a binary thing. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Agreed. And I am tired of trying to explain how a PAC jet extension isn't a bad thing in and of itself. So much parroted bad info from twitter(er, X ) I suppose. Jet extensions have been the loading pattern for most of our epic Nino snowstravaganzas. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: That can work, esp for inland at elevation. My point is the bigger issue in the advertised pattern at day 10 is not the Pacific (it is pretty damn favorable-jet extension!!). If the NA was more favorable at that time (-NAO) the overall pattern would be more conducive to colder(snowier) for the MA. This isn't a binary thing. I like the look in the west. Even with a not so good Atlantic, we could luck up and have one storm act as a temp block and the next one deliver. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I like the look in the west. Even with a not so good Atlantic, we could luck up and have one storm act as a temp block and the next one deliver. Yeah that is a possible outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Is this a shit the blinds pattern? Pacific jet extensions are so awful. Good thing we have a ++NAO! There may be a transient window of opportunity as the pac get begins to extend and a pna epo ridge goes up. It’s possible we sneak something in. Problem is after that the pattern compromise to progress and shift the ridge east and with a raging pos nao there is nothing to resist the warmth from coming across the whole continent. If we had a -nao it might force the pac jet to cut under and we would be ok for that same pacific look is hostile with a pos nao, The pna ridge just spreads out into a full conus ridge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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