Steve25 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 6 minutes ago, snowfan said: Something you’re not likely to see this year. You might as well change this to "ever again" instead of "this year." If you don't think it could happen with the advertised pattern in mid-late February, then you probably would think it could never happen again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 not sure when it will snow again...but we are going to go at least 25 days without snow based on the last time it snowed. Outrageous for a Moderate El Nino Winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 5 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Right...they have a "severity" scale of 1-5 for the top events, based upon areal coverage, population density, and of course amount of snow. "Lesser" events below the KU scale are the more moderate events which they also cover in those volumes. I'm more or less in line with what others consider for the categories, and all of them should be warning-level or higher: SECS...4-8" solid event. MECS...12"+ HECS...18-24"+, typically covering a wide area of the East Coast. This would also be considered a "KU" storm, one that would be discussed and referred to historically. But even this has nuances for specific "IMBY" amounts...I got ~12" for the Feb. 9-10, 2010 event (though very hard to measure!), but I consider it a HECS based because it had true blizzard conditions, a whiteout for several hours, and it was very cold. Plus other locations nearby got 18" or much more. It also, of course, covered a wide area. BECS...as I mentioned before, enough snow that Moses would have to part the snow drifts on the DC Beltway!!! Maybe enough snow that @Ji would complain that it's TOO MUCH! Or enough that even @Jebman would decline to attempt shoveling it. I'll dig it. I'll demonstrate Jebman Standards, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 5 hours ago, stormy said: A lot of high anticipation is quite obvious this afternoon. Will mid February to mid March thrill snow lovers in the tristate region or will it end in disappointment???? We cannot know at this time. Ask me around April 1. Psu has often referred to 1958 Feb/March. The advertised possibilities are now reminding me of 1960. During mid Feb - mid March of 1960, brutal cold and repetitive snowstorms nearly paralyzed the western Carolina's and Virginia. While your dreaming about the possibilities, read the details of 1960 from Laurence Lee of NOAA: file:///C:/Users/James/Downloads/Review_Feb-Mar_1960(1).pdf Wow you guys are getting Jebman Crazy about snow! What did I miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 11 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Ya everything’s on track. Everything’s been said. Feb 10-15 is the transition period. Gfs just showed how it’s possible to score in that window but the wave on the gfs is actually the wave break that tanks the nao and sets off an even better look after. From Feb 15 probably well into March we are looking at what is the absolute best long wave pattern for mid Atlantic snow that there is. We are going to be tracking multiple threats soon. I’m sure of it. We just have to be patient and wait for things to get into range. Okay now I see why everyone is so damned excited lmao! Get stocked up on whatever you use to stay awake! Stock up on shovels, snowblowers and a billion of the best IPA's! You guys are about a quintillion times more excited about snow than I have ever been earlier this season! Everyone is talkin' KU's and BECS'ses! Dr. Seuss and weather? Damn you guys caught the snow mania really, superlatively BAD this time! PSU is full-on Jebman Excited about snow! Never seen this! Strap yourselves in tight, gonna be an exciting wild ride! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 14 minutes ago, Ji said: Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk I'm a lurker from the NYC forum. This dude has been pretty spot on all year 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Just wow! It is high time for all out snow mania! Workin on some snow manifestos lmao There is so much potent sugar up in here, that we will all have terminal diabetes by Feb 15! Might need some serious anti bipolar meds lmfao too! Anyone up for the 00z model runs lol? And the 6z model runs? Is it possible we could be setting up for March 13 1993 but this time the storm is 40/70 Benchmark for Washington DC? Meaning in kindergarten English, that the area of torrential snow obliterates the DC area, instead of the Alleghenies like last time? We need a massive DT WOOF!!!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 JEBMAN STANDARDS Just what are Jebman Standards? Jebman standards are not for the faint hearted or lazy. If you aim to shovel by Jebman Standards you are channeling my enthusiasm for digging snow at its best. Warning: Most people will think you are crazy. That said you will be doing the best shoveling job ever seen. NO ONE shovels by Jebman Standards. Most people are too damn lazy. You will be setting a very high bar for snow shoveling standards. You lovingly shovel all the snow on all of your walkways. Full width! Get a scraper. Pile the snow on the north sides of sunlight blocking objects. Pile it ridiculously high along the sidewalks. Shovel all of the snow from EIGHT FEET around cars and trucks. No exceptions!!!!!!!! Use this snow to make seriously tall piles! Wave your freak flag high! When I made my Dad weep with embarrassment, I knew I was truly accomplishing Jebman Standards. I was totally unabashed about my adoration of snow, ice and vodka cold at all times. If you are shoveling the snow on the corners of a block, say in Dale City, where the sidewalk becomes 8 to 10 feet wide, shovel the FULL SIDEWALK WIDTH!!!!!!! Pile that snow very very high! When you do that, you will TRULY be channeling your inner Jebman! Publish photos of your handiwork online too! Plows love to make twenty foot piles of snow at corners during KU magnitude snowstorms! Make a three foot wide path thru that pile, just to demonstrate to everyone that you indeed CAN shovel by true Jebman Standards! You don't want to make pedestrians have to walk around that KU Pile! You know what to do with the snow! Pile it up very high! Show everyone how much you love snow! That's the whole idea! You need to shovel all of the snow from your driveway entrance! Pile it all up! If the plow seals you in with an eleven foot snow berm, dig that too! The whole idea is to be lovingly obsessed with snow! Pile the snow extremely high! Bonus standards: Remove snow from the road and Pile it up! I used to send my dad into an embarrassed rage doing that! I was so terminally obsessed with snow! Everyone in Glendale in Dale City knew it! I often did a better job removing snow than the Plows lmfao!!!!!! Key here is remove every last bit of the snow with a shovel and Pile it up! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 The "SECS is 8 inches" got my attention immediately... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 A KU is a kinda unlikely. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 6 hours ago, Jebman said: JEBMAN STANDARDS Just what are Jebman Standards? Jebman standards are not for the faint hearted or lazy. If you aim to shovel by Jebman Standards you are channeling my enthusiasm for digging snow at its best. Warning: Most people will think you are crazy. That said you will be doing the best shoveling job ever seen. NO ONE shovels by Jebman Standards. Most people are too damn lazy. You will be setting a very high bar for snow shoveling standards. You lovingly shovel all the snow on all of your walkways. Full width! Get a scraper. Pile the snow on the north sides of sunlight blocking objects. Pile it ridiculously high along the sidewalks. Shovel all of the snow from EIGHT FEET around cars and trucks. No exceptions!!!!!!!! Use this snow to make seriously tall piles! Wave your freak flag high! When I made my Dad weep with embarrassment, I knew I was truly accomplishing Jebman Standards. I was totally unabashed about my adoration of snow, ice and vodka cold at all times. If you are shoveling the snow on the corners of a block, say in Dale City, where the sidewalk becomes 8 to 10 feet wide, shovel the FULL SIDEWALK WIDTH!!!!!!! Pile that snow very very high! When you do that, you will TRULY be channeling your inner Jebman! Publish photos of your handiwork online too! Plows love to make twenty foot piles of snow at corners during KU magnitude snowstorms! Make a three foot wide path thru that pile, just to demonstrate to everyone that you indeed CAN shovel by true Jebman Standards! You don't want to make pedestrians have to walk around that KU Pile! You know what to do with the snow! Pile it up very high! Show everyone how much you love snow! That's the whole idea! You need to shovel all of the snow from your driveway entrance! Pile it all up! If the plow seals you in with an eleven foot snow berm, dig that too! The whole idea is to be lovingly obsessed with snow! Pile the snow extremely high! Bonus standards: Remove snow from the road and Pile it up! I used to send my dad into an embarrassed rage doing that! I was so terminally obsessed with snow! Everyone in Glendale in Dale City knew it! I often did a better job removing snow than the Plows lmfao!!!!!! Key here is remove every last bit of the snow with a shovel and Pile it up! Piled high like this post 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 We’re about 7 days away from tracking mode coming back. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 9 minutes ago, Heisy said: We’re about 7 days away from tracking mode coming back. . I don't think anyone is using this thread anymore. There's a new one for mid-late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 2 hours ago, anotherman said: I don't think anyone is using this thread anymore. There's a new one for mid-late February. Yes unfortunately there is. Another 14-28 day chasing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Yes unfortunately there is. Another 14-28 day chasing And here you are chasing with us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 29 minutes ago, Ji said: And here you are chasing with us Nope Havent even looked at anything other than the thread title pumping yet another big event just 14-28 days away . We had two nice snowstorms, they underestimated both until 24-36 hours out and have advertised about 5 other events 10+ days out that flopped i remember when this was a weather discussion board with guys from all over. Now it’s mostly regional long range model fantasy worshipping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Faint signs of a coastal returning to guidance for Feb 5-6, would not declare it dead yet. A good result still lies inside margin of error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Holy moly Insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Insane! Yea. I moved it over to the new thread. But holy crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: Nope Havent even looked at anything other than the thread title pumping yet another big event just 14-28 days away . We had two nice snowstorms, they underestimated both until 24-36 hours out and have advertised about 5 other events 10+ days out that flopped i remember when this was a weather discussion board with guys from all over. Now it’s mostly regional long range model fantasy worshipping. I am not being snarky, I am genuinely curious how you think we should talk about the long range then? I have no issue with your methodologies but as far as I know none of them are helpful with diagnosing long range patterns. Pressure differences between DC and Pitt aren't going to help us glean anything about something 2-3 weeks away. So my honest questions is, how would you prefer the discussions in the long range thread be centered? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I am not being snarky, I am genuinely curious how you think we should talk about the long range then? I have no issue with your methodologies but as far as I know none of them are helpful with diagnosing long range patterns. Pressure differences between DC and Pitt aren't going to help us glean anything about something 2-3 weeks away. So my honest questions is, how would you prefer the discussions in the long range thread be centered? Well said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: So my honest questions is, how would you prefer the discussions in the long range thread be centered? The board used to be rich with people making their own forecasts. You don't really see that anymore, they just analyze the model, and it's nothing that really posts any advantage vs what the model says. I wish more people would make their own forecasts, but that kind of thing is not really respected, and it is LR model fantasy worshipping just based on just what everyone wants, well said. Sometimes I don't feel the extra effort worth it (especially when I'll get 6 weenies for saying "pattern bad") and do the same thing. brooklynwx is the closest one to posting their own stuff of value, but he falls into a lot of generalized/lazy terms and methods that don't test back if you do the research, or know what it actually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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