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Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3


WinterWxLuvr
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9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


I know there are sorta definitions for SECS/MECS/HECS but we need a forum wide consensus. I feel like if you polled six people here they’d give you different numbers.

fwiw… SECS is widespread 8”. MECS 1’. HECS 18”+

I sort of divide it in a 4-8"/8-15"/15"+

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2 hours ago, frd said:

From Tomer , here is his update from 5 days ago, so keep that in mind.  He seems bullish for a Moderate to Major Mid Atlantic Snowstorm 

January 25 Update I typically like to provide general windows for snow potentials once the picture becomes somewhat clearer; in the following days since this post, I feel increasingly confident in narrowing down a potential window between around February 15-25 for the peak potential of a moderate-major Mid Atlantic and Northeast snowstorm, though a low potential exists as early as the 2nd week of February.

 

Really this guys making a predicament, and it’s possibly 15 to 25 days away and even calling out possibly a major wow this guys got some big balls anybody know what this guy’s track record

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I typically post in the Richmond thread, live in west end of town near “Short Pump”…lol  

Short Pump is actually a really nice area in Henrico county just  NW of Richmond.  I know the name sounds funny. Tons of good restaurants there. 

Anyways, back to weather, excited for all to score w/ this forecasted pattern setup in Mid Feb. Haven’t seen such a favorable pattern like this in years.  Hope we can all start tracking a KU soon. 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

Really this guys making a predicament, and it’s possibly 15 to 25 days away and even calling out possibly a major wow this guys got some big balls anybody know what this guy’s track record

He is a very well respected MET. 

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Because I think the NAO on LR models is responding to Stratosphere warming, here's research that I did on typical lagtime:

Jan 13-24 10mb warming

https://ibb.co/PhFsN3M

Correlates at +25 days to 500mb -NAO... so that makes its window ~Feb 7-18. Obviously the 17-24 day CMC and EPS that brooklynwx posted goes beyond that window of time, so we'll see what happens. I would bet that the chance of a -NAO goes down toward the end of February. 

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25 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

An epic east coast snowstorm.  Authors Kocin and Uccellini literally wrote the book on it (2 volumes).  Thus, the K and the U.

Northeast Snowstorms Volume 1 and Volume 2 Set. (Volume 32) https://a.co/d/4hzHYhk

eta: ninja’d by GATECH

I (along with probably 75% of the posters) have the set lol. 

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A lot of high anticipation is quite obvious this afternoon.    Will mid February to mid March thrill snow lovers in the tristate region or will it end in disappointment???? 

We cannot know at this time. Ask me around April 1.

Psu has often referred to 1958 Feb/March.  The advertised possibilities are now reminding me of 1960. During mid Feb - mid March of 1960, brutal cold and repetitive snowstorms nearly paralyzed the western Carolina's and Virginia.

While your dreaming about the possibilities, read the details of 1960 from Laurence Lee of NOAA:   file:///C:/Users/James/Downloads/Review_Feb-Mar_1960(1).pdf

 

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9 minutes ago, stormy said:

A lot of high anticipation is quite obvious this afternoon.    Will mid February to mid March thrill snow lovers in the tristate region or will it end in disappointment???? 

We cannot know at this time. Ask me around April 1.

Psu has often referred to 1958 Feb/March.  The advertised possibilities are now reminding me of 1960. During mid Feb - mid March of 1960, brutal cold and repetitive snowstorms nearly paralyzed the western Carolina's and Virginia.

While your dreaming about the possibilities, read the details of 1960 from Laurence Lee of NOAA:   file:///C:/Users/James/Downloads/Review_Feb-Mar_1960(1).pdf

 

Here’s the link:

https://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/localdat/cases/2010/Review_FebMar_1960.pdf

 

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1 hour ago, WesternFringe said:

An epic east coast snowstorm.  Authors Kocin and Uccellini literally wrote the book on it (2 volumes).  Thus, the K and the U.

Northeast Snowstorms Volume 1 and Volume 2 Set. (Volume 32) https://a.co/d/4hzHYhk

eta: ninja’d by GATECH

Right...they have a "severity" scale of 1-5 for the top events, based upon areal coverage, population density, and of course amount of snow.  "Lesser" events below the KU scale are the more moderate events which they also cover in those volumes.

I'm more or less in line with what others consider for the categories, and all of them should be warning-level or higher:

SECS...4-8" solid event.

MECS...12"+

HECS...18-24"+, typically covering a wide area of the East Coast.  This would also be considered a "KU" storm, one that would be discussed and referred to historically.  But even this has nuances for specific "IMBY" amounts...I got ~12" for the Feb. 9-10, 2010 event (though very hard to measure!), but I consider it a HECS based because it had true blizzard conditions, a whiteout for several hours, and it was very cold.  Plus other locations nearby got 18" or much more.  It also, of course, covered a wide area.

BECS...as I mentioned before, enough snow that Moses would have to part the snow drifts on the DC Beltway!!!  Maybe enough snow that @Ji would complain that it's TOO MUCH!  Or enough that even @Jebman would decline to attempt shoveling it.

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