Ji Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: I’d assume both the control and ensemble will have upgrades to them? Not sure what HRES meant in the tweet. Hires? Idk . oh my god. JB and Mark Margarbage are always posting the Euro control cause it shows crazy snow totals all the time. Now its going to be our operational model @psuhoffman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, Ji said: oh my god. JB and Mark Margarbage are always posting the Euro control cause it shows crazy snow totals all the time. Now its going to be our operational model @psuhoffman? Yeah, essentially making the Euro control the new Op is, uhhhh, not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 This all just guarantees the new King is, in fact, going to be the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 25 minutes ago, Heisy said: I’d assume both the control and ensemble will have upgrades to them? Not sure what HRES meant in the tweet. Hires? Idk . @dendrite felt they would upgrade the control but not 100% certain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 9 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Right.. I agree with all of this. So at what point does that Closed Upper level low track just far north enough to paste us with heavy snow? Complicated... lol. If the low stays completely separate from the northern stream like most guidance shows, a flush hit carries a huge risk of flush rain. Thermals are awful without stream interaction. Can that still happen? Sure, it's in the envelope. But getting stream interaction downstream is backwards. We need to tap downstream and pull cold nearly backwards. Idk man. That's a tall order lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Although that statement doesn’t say it, I would expect the new “control” will be at the resolution of the current op? And maybe all ensemble members will be at higher resolution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 53 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yeah, the control will be the op and come out with the ensembles at 2pm next winter If there is no operational to run, why wouldn't the ensembles then begin to come out around 1pm? The reason for the delay in the ensembles is the systems are running the op first. Without that they can simply start the ensemble system. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, psuhoffman said: If there is no operational to run, why wouldn't the ensembles then begin to come out around 1pm? The reason for the delay in the ensembles is the systems are running the op first. Without that they can simply start the ensemble system. Makes sense, thanks. The control has always be one of the ensemble members for the eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Although that statement doesn’t say it, I would expect the new “control” will be at the resolution of the current op? And maybe all ensemble members will be at higher resolution? Doesn't raising the resolution just make it exactly the same as the current OP? Because the control is just a low resolution version of the OP currently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 55 minutes ago, Heisy said: I’d assume both the control and ensemble will have upgrades to them? Not sure what HRES meant in the tweet. Hires? Idk . The latest upgrade of the op euro has been referred to as the "hi res" there is a lower res version run but you rarely see it. 49 minutes ago, Ji said: oh my god. JB and Mark Margarbage are always posting the Euro control cause it shows crazy snow totals all the time. Now its going to be our operational model @psuhoffman? The control and op are usually almost the same, its just the control goes out to 15 days so those clowns use the day 12 stuff from the control. 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Although that statement doesn’t say it, I would expect the new “control” will be at the resolution of the current op? And maybe all ensemble members will be at higher resolution? I really hope so, the only thing I would hate about this change is that frankly the op euro is the best "high res short range" model also. I know people like to say "time to start using the high res models" but most of those CAM's suck for snowstorms and the euro is still the best for getting the main idea even at 24-48 hours. Not having that high resolution op would be a big loss imo 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The latest upgrade of the op euro has been referred to as the "hi res" there is a lower res version run but you rarely see it. The control and op are usually almost the same, its just the control goes out to 15 days so those clowns use the day 12 stuff from the control. I really hope so, the only thing I would hate about this change is that frankly the op euro is the best "high res short range" model also. I know people like to say "time to start using the high res models" but most of those CAM's suck for snowstorms and the euro is still the best for getting the main idea even at 24-48 hours. Not having that high resolution op would be a big loss imo They seem to like to sacrifice short term accuracy for long term forecasting in any update they do at ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 47 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Complicated... lol. If the low stays completely separate from the northern stream like most guidance shows, a flush hit carries a huge risk of flush rain. Thermals are awful without stream interaction. Can that still happen? Sure, it's in the envelope. But getting stream interaction downstream is backwards. We need to tap downstream and pull cold nearly backwards. Idk man. That's a tall order lol I see.. so probably have to wait. this time of year is rough.. when you are getting closer and closer to the end of our window and nothing is on the horizon... its hard to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Although that statement doesn’t say it, I would expect the new “control” will be at the resolution of the current op? And maybe all ensemble members will be at higher resolution? Did the statement say anything about adding more digital blue to satisfy a certain segment of the consumer? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 DT has to be in a panic… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: DT has to be in a panic… He is sooooooo bad. He needs to man up and apologize for all the sh*t he has posted on this Feb 5 event recently 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 I was referencing more the loss of his beloved Euro op... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 8 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I was referencing more the loss of his beloved Euro op... Hes been hugging this Feb 5 storm. Why I dont know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Icon and cmc get snow into the subforum south of DC. Gfs doesn’t get precip into North Carolina. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 CMC is trying but failing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Remains a long shot, but still a non-zero chance. Not a great idea to get too invested, but worth keeping an eye on for any north shifts, especially by the gfs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30 Author Share Posted January 30 15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: CMC is trying but failing It had snow in extreme southern pa last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 I don't remember seeing -250dm on the 384hr GFS ensemble mean before.. 6z GEFS has it as a solid +PNA low. Again, here's the correlation to storm placement in the east: https://ibb.co/M6msjHq Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: They seem to like to sacrifice short term accuracy for long term forecasting in any update they do at ECMWF It’s the exact opposite course to take. 5 days and inside should be enhanced, not the 10+ make pretend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Nice to see a gfs fantasy range hit at the start of our window 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Nice to see a gfs fantasy range hit at the start of our window A little warm with the overrunning but looks like an overrunning event that transitions to a coastal low with the h5 pass. Only 14 days away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: A little warm with the overrunning but looks like an overrunning event that transitions to a coastal low with the h5 pass. Only 14 days away. And cooking up something big for D17-18! 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Nice to see a gfs fantasy range hit at the start of our window Obviously this specific threat is unlikely to hit in this exact way, but it was a pretty classic nino way to score, split flow, cut off system crashes into southern CA and slides across the CONUS under the canada ridging. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, WxUSAF said: And cooking up something big for D17-18! You all know I will be the first to hit the red button when I think its warranted, but I was getting a big old laugh at all the freak outs the last couple days which IMO was simply impatience induced. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Obviously this specific threat is unlikely to hit in this exact way, but it was a pretty classic nino way to score, split flow, cut off system crashes into southern CA and slides across the CONUS under the canada ridging. love seeing that massive Aleutian low crash southward and lead to split flow. really nice evolution that keeps presenting itself 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Oh, and just in case the GFS is actually correct, letting ya know now I will not be on here posting during that deform band that drops 12" in 6 hours over me, I will be out playing in it. 6 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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