brooklynwx99 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: textbook split flow that Aleutian low is just going to dive equatorward too 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 @psuhoffman i agree with your point on the lack of big storms from Feb 20-Mar 5 or so. it seems to be a lack of sample size… there’s no reason why it can’t happen in a cold, blocky pattern. maybe this is the year we set precedent 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: textbook split flow that Aleutian low is just going to dive equatorward too i like seeing that somewhat active NS stream too based off the mean, could mean a big phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, AtlanticWx said: i like seeing that somewhat active NS stream too based off the mean, could mean a big phase with a STJ like that alongside blocking, you’re begging for it 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Good sign that it’s staying around feb 14 or even moving a little forward in time 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: @psuhoffman i agree with your point on the lack of big storms from Feb 20-Mar 5 or so. it seems to be a lack of sample size… there’s no reason why it can’t happen in a cold, blocky pattern. maybe this is the year we set precedent maybe because all the big storms happen Feb 14-18 and there is nothing left for the next week lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: its going to be a dark day for this hobby when this map produces nothing in our backyards 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 time to punt the 65-66 analog. Have already punted the 09-10 analog. the 86-87 maybe...but our 2 storms in January were small compared to the 86-87 still on the table...Feb 2003, 57-58 lol, 72-73, Feb 2010? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: @psuhoffman i agree with your point on the lack of big storms from Feb 20-Mar 5 or so. it seems to be a lack of sample size… there’s no reason why it can’t happen in a cold, blocky pattern. maybe this is the year we set precedent Interesting, because I seem to recall similar discussions in 2016 about the lack of big storms around the 3rd week of January. Maybe due to climo "January thaw" or just chance. And then we got the blizzard on Jan. 22-23! Again like you said, no apparent reason it couldn't happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, IronTy said: I've only been down here in Maryland for 19yrs, so 09-10 I had been here for five years. I wish I knew then what I know now - I sort of just figured those types of monster storms were not common, but relatively regular. Knowing what I know now I think I would have taken a lot more time off work to enjoy it and play in the snow to savor how awesome that winter was. If I was still in my 20s maybe I'd more to Alta, UT to live in the snow. Now in my 40s that seems a little too much, but man, life regrets. I often think about my regrets from 09/10. I was in 10th grade. I definitely enjoyed it. The time off school was a thrill. I got no pictures or videos of my own. Nor did I write any journal entries about winter weather events like I do now. Obviously I can go and watch other people's videos from that winter, but it's just not the same as having your own personal memories captured. I also just didn't cherish that winter the way I would now. It haunts me, knowing it's very likely we will never experience something like that again. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3 minutes ago, Ji said: time to punt the 65-66 analog. Have already punted the 09-10 analog. the 86-87 maybe...but our 2 storms in January were small compared to the 86-87 still on the table...Feb 2003, 57-58 lol, 72-73, Feb 2010? Feb 2003 wasn’t blocky, though. this could resemble 09-10, just pushed back a couple weeks. Feb 1978 is also close 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 This is probably our next trackable window. Seeing an indication of a shortwave in the southern stream with improvements in the high latitudes. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: Feb 2003 wasn’t blocky, though. this could resemble 09-10, just pushed back a couple weeks. Feb 1978 is also close here was the 500mb map a week before Feb 2003 blizzard. dosent look that different from what Geds showing. Cant really tell whats happening in the NAO domain but it had that split flow thing 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 minutes ago, Ji said: here was the 500mb map a week before Feb 2003 blizzard. dosent look that different from what Geds showing. Cant really tell whats happening in the NAO domain but it had that split flow thing I recall there being an east based -NAO. Wasn't the classic NA look that's for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: This is probably our next trackable window. Seeing an indication of a shortwave in the southern stream with improvements in the high latitudes. Awesome! Just needs to hold for 56 more model runs.. 1 1 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: I recall there being an east based -NAO. Wasn't the classic NA look that's for sure. Massive 50-50 low with Scandi ridge leading in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Massive 50-50 low with Scandi ridge leading in.Do you have it for the 10 days before storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 31 minutes ago, Ji said: its going to be a dark day for this hobby when this map produces nothing in our backyards If, if, IF. Just once I'd like you to use positive language when there's no other reason to be negative about something. Humor me just this once for the Feb 10th-20th period. What do ya have to lose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: Massive 50-50 low with Scandi ridge leading in. That's more of a +NAO.. in the NAO domain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 18z GEFS, now the WC ridge is being pushed back a few panels lol Looks good at 384hr still though.. picking up a slight -NAO in the LR this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 9 minutes ago, Ji said: Do you have it for the 10 days before storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 looks plenty of cold air from rockies to EC if this verifies 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: looks plenty of cold air from rockies to EC if this verifies Yeah I would say right now Feb 14th starts our storm threat window. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 We're still doing really well here in precipitable water.. look near CA and FL. https://ibb.co/frw6QCv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, CAPE said: I recall there being an east based -NAO. Wasn't the classic NA look that's for sure. That PD 2 in ‘03 was not forecast to be much if I remember correctly. It way over performed in my area, at least. We ended off school for the week. That was good, because I was pregnant and down with a wicked sinus infection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 The snow mean really went up with this latest run. It was 8 on Thursday. Today 11 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Less than four days after the snow ended in Feb 2003, another storm dropped 2.50-3.00” of rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 6 minutes ago, Ji said: The snow mean really went up with this latest run. It was 8 on Thursday. Today 11 If this is to be believed we should be tracking discrete threats in about 7 days or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Less than four days after the snow ended in Feb 2003, another storm dropped 2.50-3.00” of rain. Oh man I remember that. Was it a close call or no chance lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 If this is to be believed we should be tracking discrete threats in about 7 days or so.We’ve even tracking discrete threats! We’ve had 2 storm threads made this past week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts