Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3

[EastCoast NPZ]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Need that confluence for a decent surface High and cold enough low level temps (if precip comes far enough north). Gonna be hard to win here.

The win is rain, which I'd be quite happy with.

[Heisy]

Positives for LR I think… That western trough isn’t cutting off like 12z run, we want that to come East as fast as possible. There is probably going to be a solid 2-3 days warmup as the ridge moves through




.

[Heisy]

One thing we know how to do here is rain.  

There’s really no mechanism to get it N. It’s just really based on how much latitude it has as it comes E. Terp is right our shot was if that ULL had trended West so that it could have phased. That’s not happening now. Outside the elevations of SE this one is likely a loser. It’s okay I’m gearing up for 2/24/24 blizzard


.

[psuhoffman]

@Terpeast I’m not sure the lack of an HECS after PD isn’t partly just small ample size. Baltimore has only had 9 20” storms in 130+ years of records. One of those did happen in late March!  They’ve had several 10” plus storms after Feb 20. I’m not sure with a sample of 9 in 130 years we can say that the odds really collapse that much between Feb 20-March 10. Obviously they do degrade some and after mid March there is a cliff at some point. But given the right pattern I don’t think a 20” storm late Feb or early March is that much less likely. 
 

Thinking back on my lifetime the bigger issue is there often has not been the right pattern between Feb 20-March 10 for that kind of storm. We’ve had some great looks mid and late March when I do think it was getting difficult for DC and Baltimore to cash in big. But Feb 20-March 10 has kinda been a weird dead zone many years. Plenty of “good” patterns but not really many I can remember thinking an hecs was likely or even possible. 
 

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Terpeast One of those did happen in late March! 

Yeah, but it was probably in the 1890s.

[TSG]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Terpeast I’m not sure the lack of an HECS after PD isn’t partly just small ample size. Baltimore has only had 9 20” storms in 130+ years of records. One of those did happen in late March!  They’ve had several 10” plus storms after Feb 20. I’m not sure with a sample of 9 in 130 years we can say that the odds really collapse that much between Feb 20-March 10. Obviously they do degrade some and after mid March there is a cliff at some point. But given the right pattern I don’t think a 20” storm late Feb or early March is that much less likely. 
 

Thinking back on my lifetime the bigger issue is there often has not been the right pattern between Feb 20-March 10 for that kind of storm. We’ve had some great looks mid and late March when I do think it was getting difficult for DC and Baltimore to cash in big. But Feb 20-March 10 has kinda been a weird dead zone many years. Plenty of “good” patterns but not really many I can remember thinking an hecs was likely or even possible. 
 

 

Interesting reading this and realizing I have the same gut feeling about that period. I can remember a few unseasonable warmups in DC during that time frame between 2015-2020, some followed by significant cold. It killed most of the cherry blossoms one year when they all popped about 3-4 weeks early and then we had some serious cold a couple weeks later. Tourists were very upset.

[psuhoffman]

38 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

We don’t need to do that I agree.  We do not agree on the efficiency and usefulness of models. 
There is  Way More  to my weather enjoyment than following models.. I think it’s the bulk of your enjoyment and I need to be more sensitive to that. In return you dont need to take up a challenge every single time I comment  on models. I’m not commenting on You.

That might work 

You’re wrong about what I like. The only reason I’m so often stuck analyzing super long range tea leaves is because there is nothing closer of interest. When there is a big snowstorm 24 hours away you don’t see me posting about day 15 pattern clues that much. 

[WVclimo]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Terpeast I’m not sure the lack of an HECS after PD isn’t partly just small ample size. Baltimore has only had 9 20” storms in 130+ years of records. One of those did happen in late March!  They’ve had several 10” plus storms after Feb 20. I’m not sure with a sample of 9 in 130 years we can say that the odds really collapse that much between Feb 20-March 10. Obviously they do degrade some and after mid March there is a cliff at some point. But given the right pattern I don’t think a 20” storm late Feb or early March is that much less likely. 
 

Thinking back on my lifetime the bigger issue is there often has not been the right pattern between Feb 20-March 10 for that kind of storm. We’ve had some great looks mid and late March when I do think it was getting difficult for DC and Baltimore to cash in big. But Feb 20-March 10 has kinda been a weird dead zone many years. Plenty of “good” patterns but not really many I can remember thinking an hecs was likely or even possible. 
 

 

The one near-miss from that part of the calendar that still bothers me is March 1-2, 1980.  The DC-BALT corridor pulled off a 4-6” snowfall with temps in the upper teens, but eastern NC up to the Tidewater of VA had 1-2 feet with similar temps.

https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar011980EventReview

 

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Yeah, but it was probably in the 1890s.

1942. 
But…there is one group here that apparently has decided it can’t snow anymore before January and now they want to toss after Feb 20 then I say “it’s getting harder” and another group wants to crucify me. Which is it. We can’t start tossing a freaking HUGE portion of our historical potential snow climo then at the same time act like everything is fine and we will somehow get the same snow results compressed into 6 weeks that we used to expect spread out over 12 weeks. 

[Heisy]

The 18z GfS is a step towards the progression the ensembles are showing. Epo ridge building, that western trough will eventually come E. We’re just in a waiting period and possibly a break your shorts out period until it does



.

[WinterWxLuvr]

This thing may end up a straight cutter. That upper trough to our ne is trending toward leaving. If that happens it’s gonna gain latitude.

[stormy]

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Terpeast I’m not sure the lack of an HECS after PD isn’t partly just small ample size. Baltimore has only had 9 20” storms in 130+ years of records. One of those did happen in late March!  They’ve had several 10” plus storms after Feb 20. I’m not sure with a sample of 9 in 130 years we can say that the odds really collapse that much between Feb 20-March 10. Obviously they do degrade some and after mid March there is a cliff at some point. But given the right pattern I don’t think a 20” storm late Feb or early March is that much less likely. 
 

Thinking back on my lifetime the bigger issue is there often has not been the right pattern between Feb 20-March 10 for that kind of storm. We’ve had some great looks mid and late March when I do think it was getting difficult for DC and Baltimore to cash in big. But Feb 20-March 10 has kinda been a weird dead zone many years. Plenty of “good” patterns but not really many I can remember thinking an hecs was likely or even possible. 
 

 

You just haven't lived quite long enough!

[IronTy]

10 minutes ago, stormy said:

You just haven't lived quite long enough!

I've only been down here in Maryland for 19yrs, so 09-10 I had been here for five years.  I wish I knew then what I know now - I sort of just figured those types of monster storms were not common, but relatively regular.  Knowing what I know now I think I would have taken a lot more time off work to enjoy it and play in the snow to savor how awesome that winter was.  If I was still in my 20s maybe I'd more to Alta, UT to live in the snow.  Now in my 40s that seems a little too much, but man, life regrets.  

[poolz1]

It is a lose lose situation.  We need enough confluence for cold but that leads to suppression with a beast ridge flexing. Less confluence leads to the ridging pushing SE and suppressing....or too warm if precipitation does come north.  I don't see a middle ground for us to win.

[Ji]

It is a lose lose situation.  We need enough confluence for cold but that leads to suppression with a beast ridge flexing. Less confluence leads to the ridging pushing SE and suppressing....or too warm if precipitation does come north.  I don't see a middle ground for us to win.

I’ll take my chance on having precip

[WEATHER53]

46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re wrong about what I like. The only reason I’m so often stuck analyzing super long range tea leaves is because there is nothing closer of interest. When there is a big snowstorm 24 hours away you don’t see me posting about day 15 pattern clues that much. 

I go by what I see  and I believe several other posters commented that during both of last weeks events you were absent.  A number of other very active  posters in the past were similar; the ongoing event meant nothing, they were already onto  the 240 hour GFS. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I go by what I see  and I believe several other posters commented that during both of last weeks events you were absent.  A number of other very active  posters in the past were similar; the ongoing event meant nothing, they were already onto  the 240 hour GFS. 

I was playing in the snow with my children!  Then I got the flu and almost died. Sorry lol 

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

I’ll take my chance on having precip

I’ll take my chance on a better threat 

[WEATHER53]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was playing in the snow with my children!  Then I got the flu and almost died. Sorry lol 

I played also.  Just not off the board during just about the entirety. It’s a trait of a few sold weather enthusiasts that the run up to the event is way more exciting than the event.   No need to try to disown that 

 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I played also.  Just not off the board during just about the entirety. It’s a trait of a few sold weather enthusiasts that the run up to the event is way more exciting than the event.   No need to try to disown that 

 

My favorite time to analyze is maybe 1-3 days before a storm. When the storm is pretty much imminent and we’re just pinning down the details and trying to analyze not if but how much!  Sometimes during a long duration event I’ll post if I see something of interest. A feature that might affect banding for example.
 

But for the most part once it’s snowing I want to enjoy the snow not be online.  It’s not like I was filling up the long range thread either. I made a few posts in the observation thread. And a couple on the long range. I wasn’t totally gone. I even saw the posts wondering where I was.  I was outside in the snow is where I was. That’s my preference. 

[Ji]

17 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I played also.  Just not off the board during just about the entirety. It’s a trait of a few sold weather enthusiasts that the run up to the event is way more exciting than the event.   No need to try to disown that 

 

thats me. I love digital blue the most and snow when its falling but radar has ruined it for me and seeing the back edge.  but the day after the storm....im in depression mode. Dont care for snowcover that much

[psuhoffman]

18z gefs is speeding up the progression by about a day 

[weatherbook]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

1942. 
But…there is one group here that apparently has decided it can’t snow anymore before January and now they want to toss after Feb 20 then I say “it’s getting harder” and another group wants to crucify me. Which is it. We can’t start tossing a freaking HUGE portion of our historical potential snow climo then at the same time act like everything is fine and we will somehow get the same snow results compressed into 6 weeks that we used to expect spread out over 12 weeks. 

1942 was big.  Even bigger than 1958 for the greater DC area.  

[Ji]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

18z gefs is speeding up the progression by about a day 

bam bam bam!

[snowmagnet]

4 minutes ago, weatherbook said:

1942 was big.  Even bigger than 1958 for the greater DC area.  

Everyone talks about late March 1993 around here.  I guess that one wasn't over 20" in Baltimore, so it doesn't count.  I was living in Louisville that year, so I don't know how much we had around here.  
 

[psuhoffman]

Gefs is having a men’s warehouse run. 

[stormy]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

I've only been down here in Maryland for 19yrs, so 09-10 I had been here for five years.  I wish I knew then what I know now - I sort of just figured those types of monster storms were not common, but relatively regular.  Knowing what I know now I think I would have taken a lot more time off work to enjoy it and play in the snow to savor how awesome that winter was.  If I was still in my 20s maybe I'd more to Alta, UT to live in the snow.  Now in my 40s that seems a little too much, but man, life regrets.  

I'm with you man!!   We all have regrets looking back over our lives. 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gefs is having a men’s warehouse run. 

Nice!! Still can't believe they ousted that dude a few years ago, lol

[weatherbook]

5 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Everyone talks about late March 1993 around here.  I guess that one wasn't over 20" in Baltimore, so it doesn't count.  I was living in Louisville that year, so I don't know how much we had around here.  
 

March 1993 was way bigger and covered a very large area, but for Baltimore, the snow was not as deep as 1942.  Here's a comparison for Baltimore: 1942 produced 22" of snow with 2.05" liquid content, and 1993 produced 11.5" of snow with 2.45" liquid content.

[psuhoffman]