psuhoffman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 @WEATHER53 I don't want to start a back and forth that derails the thread. I shouldn't have been so short just now and I apologize. But we both know we do not agree on some things. And that is fine, hopefully you can agree that lately I have not been engaging with you and letting you say your peace. But may I ask that you don't put words in my mouth or quote me to further your agenda when it's not in the spirit of what I said. I promise I won't do that to you either. If I want to make a point I will just make it. That will keep our engagement more civil. We will probably never agree on this, but we don't have to fight about it, we can just have our different points of view and be two ships passing in the night for the sake of everyone else here. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 @psuhoffman this is the week after the EPS ends… it is timed up with the EPS perfectly at 360hr as well 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 fwiw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: @psuhoffman this is the week after the EPS ends… it is timed up with the EPS perfectly at 360hr as well Looks like big snow storm potential. Or too early yet ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, frd said: Looks like big snow storm potential. Or too early yet ? I like the PD period for our first BIG threat 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 49 minutes ago, paulythegun said: For the 5th/6th, EPS has these three panels + 48 panels of nothing or almost nothing. the EPS(likely cause of these 3 panels) did considerable bump up the QPF 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: @psuhoffman this is the week after the EPS ends… it is timed up with the EPS perfectly at 360hr as well President's Day window. Probably our last shot at the Big One as those have historically happened during this time frame. After the 20th, we'll be swimming upstream. Can still score then, just the max upside gets a bit smaller. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I like the PD period for our first BIG threat Ha, love it. I am not sure if I like the term Big or First better ? ( I like both !!! ) Thanks for your updates psu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: President's Day window. Probably our last shot at the Big One as those have historically happened during this time frame. After the 20th, we'll be swimming upstream. Can still score then, just the max upside gets a bit smaller. we have a better show generally Feb 10-Feb 40th than December. Early March has been pretty favorable lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: yea that isn't what I said You know he is being obtuse on purpose to try and bait you. Why take it? EDIT: didnt see your subsequent post, my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: President's Day window. Probably our last shot at the Big One as those have historically happened during this time frame. After the 20th, we'll be swimming upstream. Can still score then, just the max upside gets a bit smaller. Looking at seasonality, blocking cycles, and other data, including the increased odds of another signifincant - NAO period, it would not shock me if we get that - NAO in early March. This might increase the odds of a higher end winterstorm in early to even mid March, despite climo aurguing otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 BAMwx smashing the torch emoji button like it’s the spinner on a slot machine 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: BAMwx smashing the torch emoji button like it’s the spinner on a slot machine They will burn in flames ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 This doesn’t look like torch to me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 WB 12Z EPS for the 13th. I am not counting them, but will be watching the number of blue members as we get toward mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 besides, what other group of scientists has their own pro baseball team in New York? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 9 minutes ago, Heisy said: This doesn’t look like torch to me . Now that is a much better -NAO look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 This doesn’t look like torch to me.Probably have a Rainer before the blues finally make it to us, but then we’ll likely have a favorable pattern 2nd half of Feb. would be nice to get a NAO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Now that is a much better -NAO look That’s actually a REALLY good look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Mid Feb into early March has been the target for a more favorable pattern for while now on the extended tools. That hasn't changed. Seeing it at the end of ens runs now. Getting lucky with something sooner would be a bonus but a lot would have to break right. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 18Z GFS rolling now...crazy east trend continues for that shortwave to our NE past 5 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That’s actually a REALLY good look. it's a ridiculous signal for that lead time. that would be a strong signal at 10 days, let alone almost 3 weeks 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: @WEATHER53 I don't want to start a back and forth that derails the thread. I shouldn't have been so short just now and I apologize. But we both know we do not agree on some things. And that is fine, hopefully you can agree that lately I have not been engaging with you and letting you say your peace. But may I ask that you don't put words in my mouth or quote me to further your agenda when it's not in the spirit of what I said. I promise I won't do that to you either. If I want to make a point I will just make it. That will keep our engagement more civil. We will probably never agree on this, but we don't have to fight about it, we can just have our different points of view and be two ships passing in the night for the sake of everyone else here. We don’t need to do that I agree. We do not agree on the efficiency and usefulness of models. There is Way More to my weather enjoyment than following models.. I think it’s the bulk of your enjoyment and I need to be more sensitive to that. In return you dont need to take up a challenge every single time I comment on models. I’m not commenting on You. That might work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Surface wise GFS got just a teensy tiny bit norther. But no dice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Liking the trend here, pg 2 weenie handbook….we got time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 The last 5 runs (here it comes! rain bomb!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 That ULL is trending further n and east but it’s a catch 22. We need that SOB but has to be in the Goldilocks zone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 17 minutes ago, Alfoman said: 18Z GFS rolling now...crazy east trend continues for that shortwave to our NE past 5 runs Need that confluence for a decent surface High and cold enough low level temps (if precip comes far enough north). Gonna be hard to win here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, paulythegun said: The last 5 runs (here it comes! rain bomb!) One thing we know how to do here is rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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