Heisy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 The pattern should get good again, just in time for me to return from Seattle on the 10th. Blizzard of 2/24/24 has a nice ring to it. Patience required . 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The pattern should get good again, just in time for me to return from Seattle on the 10th. Wait a minute...has your level of knowledge evolved to a point where you can shut off snow when you are out of the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: I know, I know...but it's just not funny especially coming from someone who is well respected and knowledgeable (and I very much respect PSU's input and knowledge, don't get me wrong!). We get enough non-trolling whining and complaining in here as it is, why add to it? There is nothing to analyze in here right now except wild speculation about what things might evolve towards out near mid February. The pattern is pretty much shut the blinds for a while. Yes my post was somewhat trolling, but there was a legit point in there that its going to be so warm, at least it looks like now, that even if we did get lucky with a perfect synoptic setup within the larger pattern it wouldn't do us any good. That is a TRUE shut the blinds pattern. As for the elephant stuff, I'm not trying to start that argument again. But I don't think its totally true that in the past we had a lot of patterns where the whole CONUS was so torched that there was absolutely no hope of snow no matter what the storm track or amplitude of a wave was. I saw plenty of "how in the world did we get 5" of snow in THAT" kinda storms when I did my case study of every Baltimore snowstorm. I think there was a time when we could luck our way into a snowstorm even in a bad pattern once in a while if we got a perfect track wave, but that was when warm periods were warm not scorched earth torches. 1998 was the best example of that kind of thing...but there is a matter of degrees...all those perfect track rainstorms in 1998 had some snow mixed in not too far NW of the cities. My area got 20" that year from like 2-4" of slop in each of those. And some higher elevations in WV got absolutely buried in every one of those. Lately its all rain even in some of those places. We aren't even getting all that close to snow even in a perfect track lately when the pattern is bad. Some people don't agree with me on this. And that is fine. It is what it is and our opinions don't matter anyways. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The pattern should get good again, just in time for me to return from Seattle on the 10th. Ahhh, so THAT'S why the pattern change is holding off!!! Models and ensembles actually have your calendar programmed in now??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Wait a minute...has your level of knowledge evolved to a point where you can shut off snow when you are out of the area? They were asking me to shove this vort south for them so some must think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 According to the CPC, it's been a Strong +NAO Winter. I don't really get that because look at Greenland, and even a little cold pocket over the Azores https://ibb.co/WW5kVPZ Yet December came in at +1.94, and January according to their predictions forward should come in around ~+1.00. Pretty huge discrepancy there https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, psuhoffman said: There is nothing to analyze in here right now except wild speculation about what things might evolve towards out near mid February. The pattern is pretty much shut the blinds for a while. Yes my post was somewhat trolling, but there was a legit point in there that its going to be so warm, at least it looks like now, that even if we did get lucky with a perfect synoptic setup within the larger pattern it wouldn't do us any good. That is a TRUE shut the blinds pattern. As for the elephant stuff, I'm not trying to start that argument again. But I don't think its totally true that in the past we had a lot of patterns where the whole CONUS was so torched that there was absolutely no hope of snow no matter what the storm track or amplitude of a wave was. I saw plenty of "how in the world did we get 5" of snow in THAT" kinda storms when I did my case study of every Baltimore snowstorm. I think there was a time when we could luck our way into a snowstorm even in a bad pattern once in a while if we got a perfect track wave, but that was when warm periods were warm not scorched earth torches. 1998 was the best example of that kind of thing...but there is a matter of degrees...all those perfect track rainstorms in 1998 had some snow mixed in not too far NW of the cities. My area got 20" that year from like 2-4" of slop in each of those. And some higher elevations in WV got absolutely buried in every one of those. Lately its all rain even in some of those places. We aren't even getting all that close to snow even in a perfect track lately when the pattern is bad. Some people don't agree with me on this. And that is fine. It is what it is and our opinions don't matter anyways. That's fine...you were looking at a bit larger picture than what my comment was referring to. I was stating that it looked like crap and would be in any situation or time. I realize now that you were pointing to the fact that it looks remarkably warm damn near across the entire CONUS. Which gets to the "elephant in the room" discussion that I won't delve into here, but don't get me wrong, I am absolutely NOT a climate change denier, and I am not disputing your (or anyone else's) assessment on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 minutes ago, Heisy said: Blizzard of 2/24/24 has a nice ring to it. Patience required . Just as likely as the blizzard of 2/30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Just as likely as the blizzard of 2/30 One for the record books. It was a white knuckle blizzard, to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is nothing to analyze in here right now except wild speculation about what things might evolve towards out near mid February. The pattern is pretty much shut the blinds for a while. Yes my post was somewhat trolling, but there was a legit point in there that its going to be so warm, at least it looks like now, that even if we did get lucky with a perfect synoptic setup within the larger pattern it wouldn't do us any good. That is a TRUE shut the blinds pattern. As for the elephant stuff, I'm not trying to start that argument again. But I don't think its totally true that in the past we had a lot of patterns where the whole CONUS was so torched that there was absolutely no hope of snow no matter what the storm track or amplitude of a wave was. I saw plenty of "how in the world did we get 5" of snow in THAT" kinda storms when I did my case study of every Baltimore snowstorm. I think there was a time when we could luck our way into a snowstorm even in a bad pattern once in a while if we got a perfect track wave, but that was when warm periods were warm not scorched earth torches. 1998 was the best example of that kind of thing...but there is a matter of degrees...all those perfect track rainstorms in 1998 had some snow mixed in not too far NW of the cities. My area got 20" that year from like 2-4" of slop in each of those. And some higher elevations in WV got absolutely buried in every one of those. Lately its all rain even in some of those places. We aren't even getting all that close to snow even in a perfect track lately when the pattern is bad. Some people don't agree with me on this. And that is fine. It is what it is and our opinions don't matter anyways. For those who have to work, here's a summary: The weather is unpredictable, patterns change, and anything is possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 9 minutes ago, Yeoman said: For those who have to work, here's a summary: The weather is unpredictable, patterns change, and anything is possible. yea, wish the weather was as predictable as the Cowboys in the playoffs! 3 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I’m most concerned if we can get the pattern shifted in time for Vday or at least PD to be in the prime window of opportunity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 By the end of the run, GEFS and GEPS have a low around the Aleutians with heights poking up towards the Arctic. Also higher heights starting to establish around and south of the Hudson Bay. GEPS has a nice split flow look, as well. Just signs of things changing, if nothing else. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Nino climo for the mid-Atlantic has pretty pronounced peaks in mid-Jan and mid-Feb. Following the script so far. 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 canada totally deflated. no pressure up there at all. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 12z GEFS LR is pretty ugly.. here we go with that +PNA that everyone had in February.. I thought it might have troubles this year. Subsurface ENSO has also dipped below 0 in the zone I have found has the highest PNA correlation.. so we'll see.. Euro model, both seasonal and weeklies have been head of the pact showing a strong +PNA February. In the final analysis, they might just rely on El Nino a little too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 8 minutes ago, paulythegun said: canada totally deflated. no pressure up there at all. things are right on track with seasonal monthlies 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 20 minutes ago, Ji said: things are right on track with seasonal monthlies That map looks right Florida cold rest of Us warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: According to the CPC, it's been a Strong +NAO Winter. I don't really get that because look at Greenland, and even a little cold pocket over the Azores I think they made an error somewhere. The max NAO didn't even make it to 1.94 in December, so it's impossible that the average would be 1.94. You should notify them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 WB 12Z EPS, centered a day or two before and after February 1 there may be a small window of opportunity with temps near to below normal and a trough in the East. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I'm in the same boat. Ill probably be SLIGHTLY above climo for this date by the end of today...but by the time we get to our next window of opportunity, if the next 2-3 weeks go the way I currently think, I will be WAY behind again. We are gonna need a bomb to break climo at this point. Lucky for us we can get blasted well into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: We are gonna need a bomb to break climo at this point. Lucky for us we can get blasted well into March. PDIII gonna be awesome 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Latest CPC 3-4 week progs.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 i wouldn’t exactly consider that a torch considering that the first few days of that window can skew the whole thing above average 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 53 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS, centered a day or two before and after February 1 there may be a small window of opportunity with temps near to below normal and a trough in the East. I’ll be up at Beech Mountain at that time and hoping 5500 feet of elevation can lead to a miracle in this “shit the blinds” pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 18 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: Latest CPC 3-4 week progs.. AN Alaska usually means ridge up there, which means colder for us. Probably a lot of smoothing over in those predictions. Some torch, some cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 43 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: Latest CPC 3-4 week progs.. The color shading represents the probability of AN temps, not the intensity of the anomaly. Also CPC’s 3-4 week maps have always been low confidence (the site even used to call it experimental). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: The color shading represents the probability of AN temps, not the intensity of the anomaly. Also CPC’s 3-4 week maps have always been low confidence (the site even used to call it experimental). I think that's what people often mistake that for. It's easy to see orange and thing "Torrrrrrrch!" Lol What you like on that map is the above normal chances for precip in the south...that would mean the STJ is still alive and kickin'. Have some cold close by and you never know (enlightening I know, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Flood Tuesday Night A chance of rain after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Night Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Thursday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 54. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Thursday Night Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 43. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 52. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: yea, wish the weather was as predictable as the Cowboys in the playoffs! Watching the Eagles go down in flames was fun too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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