psuhoffman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 14 minutes ago, Ji said: feels like we have been stuck on 384 for 4 days Perception bias. The day 16 was "getting close" so people were extrapolating it. In reality the last week its been progressing consistently. Day 16 4 days ago Day 16 3 days ago Day 16 2 days ago Day 16 Yesterday Day 16 now 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 February 14, what year???? A little levity is needed in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Really good trend here in the LR! +PNA is massive, although it has been at the last panel for several days now. This is what you like to see though.. https://ibb.co/6YdrpgN Here are some Feb correlations to +PNA pattern: https://ibb.co/PQ4cLzn https://ibb.co/0jbdZK3 https://ibb.co/M6msjHq Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I hope the 14th holds, about the time MJO should be heading into 8.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Day 16 4 days ago Day 16 3 days ago Day 16 2 days ago Day 16 Yesterday Day 16 now Yeah, its been showing it at Day 16 for a week now actually. But inside 16-days it's not holding the same strength is hit point.. today might be different though, because we're starting to pop a strong western ridge too, it's becoming a more organized pattern on the Day 16 model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 One week of winter in January one week of winter in February and then we call it a day. That’s how it will play out. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah, its been showing it at Day 16 for a week now actually. But inside 16-days it's not holding the same strength is hit point.. today might be different though, because we're starting to pop a strong western ridge too, it's becoming a more organized pattern on the Day 16 model The inception of the pattern, which is in the Pacific, has been on day 16 for a few days, but it takes a while to reshuffle the downstream pattern over N America and that has been progressing consistently, people are just trying to rush it, understandably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Perception bias. The day 16 was "getting close" so people were extrapolating it. In reality the last week its been progressing consistently. Day 16 4 days ago Day 16 3 days ago Day 16 2 days ago Day 16 Yesterday Day 16 now umm...the first image was for Feb 10th...that looks pretty pretty good....but look at Feb 10th now....the can has been kicked dude. Not by a week or so but it was kicked 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Snow cover on the GFS on February 7th via Windy. Woof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 24 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I hope the 14th holds, about the time MJO should be heading into 8.... actually phase 7 in Nino in Feb isnt awful like it is in other winters but yea.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 31 minutes ago, Terpeast said: GEFS quickly turns cold starting on Feb 14. This is our new target. It may have shifted a couple days later from a week ago, but we're at the point that we cannot afford another delay, however minor it is. Bad trend to delayed to later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 WB AI Spire at 12Z. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 25 minutes ago, Ji said: umm...the first image was for Feb 10th...that looks pretty pretty good....but look at Feb 10th now....the can has been kicked dude. Not by a week or so but it was kicked that's a result of less smoothing. the main features in that pattern are in similar spots 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 for people that want the pattern to change, they are looking for literally any evidence that the "can is being kicked." odd it really hasn't been. everything has been remarkably consistent across all ensembles, and a lot of the "kicking" is just features getting sharper with time as lead time decreases 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 14 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB AI Spire at 12Z. That will come north I’m telling you I’m in Disney right now I could spend $1000 on booze and food that thing can come north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 For the 5th/6th, EPS has these three panels + 48 panels of nothing or almost nothing. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 12 minutes ago, paulythegun said: For the 5th/6th, EPS has these three panels + 48 panels of nothing or almost nothing. So you're saying the odds are in our favor 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: for people that want the pattern to change, they are looking for literally any evidence that the "can is being kicked." odd it really hasn't been. everything has been remarkably consistent across all ensembles, and a lot of the "kicking" is just features getting sharper with time as lead time decreases We're going to go into Feb 13/14 with no snow. Global models had us below average temps/above normal precip for Jan and February, almost every run going back to September. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: We're going to go into Feb 13/14 with no snow. Global models had us below average temps/above normal precip for Jan and February, almost every run going back to September. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 39 minutes ago, Ji said: umm...the first image was for Feb 10th...that looks pretty pretty good....but look at Feb 10th now....the can has been kicked dude. Not by a week or so but it was kicked In actuality those 2 plots look about the same. The difference is the second one is 4 days closer so details are being resolved. The features are sharper. But look at the location of the 4 main features in the pattern A,B,C,D are all located in about the same places. But we are seeing the ridging in between the two troughs (B and D) clearer now as the ensembles resolve timing issues and zero in on the exact location of the features. The fact that we are directly in between the waves and the ridge is showing right over us makes it look worse...but in reality those are the same plots just one is what the same pattern looks like as it gets closer. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: We're going to go into Feb 13/14 with no snow. Global models had us below average temps/above normal precip for Jan and February, almost every run going back to September. what?? did you forget about the 6-12" we got 2 weeks ago we are average to date right now lmao 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: for people that want the pattern to change, they are looking for literally any evidence that the "can is being kicked." odd it really hasn't been. everything has been remarkably consistent across all ensembles, and a lot of the "kicking" is just features getting sharper with time as lead time decreases I really think part of it is that some don't understand the difference between what a single day is likely to look like at day 16 and what that same day would be likely to look like by day 10. For example, several days ago day 16 heights over the east looked near average but with a wave/trough centered to our west and one to our east. But timing differences on the members washes out the ridge that was likely to be in between these troughs. Now that it has become day 10-12 and the timing differences are being resolved there is a ridge over us during that period between the two waves, and that "red over us" just makes it feel worse when people glance at it. But in reality its the same exact pattern that was being projected. That's what I think is going on. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: In actuality those 2 plots look about the same. We were saying before that a -NAO may be hard to comeby. That shift in the mean-ridge from the south Davis strait (south based -NAO) to basically over Ontario is kind of important, because the model is now including our 80-degree day a few days ago. The analogs I was looking at were saying the +AO/NAO could be hard to switch, and look, the -NAO ridge shifted south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I really think part of it is that some don't understand the difference between what a single day is likely to look like at day 16 and what that same day would be likely to look like by day 10. For example, several days ago day 16 heights over the east looked near average but with a wave/trough centered to our west and one to our east. But timing differences on the members washes out the ridge that was likely to be in between these troughs. Now that it has become day 10-12 and the timing differences are being resolved there is a ridge over us during that period between the two waves, and that "red over us" just makes it feel worse when people glance at it. But in reality its the same exact pattern that was being projected. That's what I think is going on. the EPS is a day from totally opening everything up. right on time 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: We were saying before that a -NAO may be hard to comeby. That shift in the mean-ridge from the south Davis strait (south-based -NAO) to basically over Ontario is kind of important, because the model is now including our 80-degree day a few days ago. The analogs I was looking at were saying the +AO/NAO could be hard to switch, and look the -NAO ridge shifted south. The ridge is centered in the exact same place on both plots 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I really think part of it is that some don't understand the difference between what a single day is likely to look like at day 16 and what that same day would be likely to look like by day 10. For example, several days ago day 16 heights over the east looked near average but with a wave/trough centered to our west and one to our east. But timing differences on the members washes out the ridge that was likely to be in between these troughs. Now that it has become day 10-12 and the timing differences are being resolved there is a ridge over us during that period between the two waves, and that "red over us" just makes it feel worse when people glance at it. But in reality its the same exact pattern that was being projected. That's what I think is going on. We understand it’s an ever changing situation to cover the bases of 0 to 12”._ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: the EPS is a day from totally opening everything up. right on time Yea, I know. I think what happened was there was kind of a false flag, between the Feb 6 "threat" popping up, and the fact that at day 16 the ridge was washed out and so the pattern looked more workable then perhaps it ever really was around Feb 10th, people started to push up the timeline. A week ago I targeted Feb 10-15 as the transition period and after Feb 15 and "good" and I have not wavered from that and so everything is "right on target" for me. But obviously some wanted to jump right into the snowstravaganza by Feb 10 and so are disappointed now. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: We understand it’s an ever changing situation to cover the bases of 0 to 12”._ yea that isn't what I said 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: yea that isn't what I said people are just kinda losing it. it’s gotten tough to post 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: people are just kinda losing it. it’s gotten tough to post As a long time lurker from the Philly area, I learn a lot from the information that good Mets post on this forum. Don’t let the negativity from others bring you down. There are a lot of people who get something valuable from information that gets posted and explained on here. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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