SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 So in all seriousness, how is the pattern looking? I am seeing solidly positive 2m temp anamolies for Feb 14 on the 6z GEFS and the same thing from the 00z EPS at the end of its run. Are we still thinking this rolls into a better pattern for the second half of Feb or is it losing the progression altogether? I know the weeklies were still looking pretty good as of yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: I'm of the same opinion about 2006-07, and in fact it is actually one of the winters I've liked a lot despite the relative lack of snow. Yeah, December 2006 sucked and January 2007 started off even worse. But the latter part of January into early March (especially February!) turned colder with some snow and ice. That sleetfest we got on Valentine's Day in February was oh-so-close to being a big event around here. But damn, that month was COLD, we had at least some snow/ice pack for several weeks. Yeah the Valentine storm could’ve been huge, but in the end it felt like a MECS even though it wasn’t. The shoveling was a huge pain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: So in all seriousness, how is the pattern looking? I am seeing solidly positive 2m temp anamolies for Feb 14 on the 6z GEFS and the same thing from the 00z EPS at the end of its run. Are we still thinking this rolls into a better pattern for the second half of Feb or is it losing the progression altogether? I know the weeklies were still looking pretty good as of yesterday. I think we’ll get a very good stretch but it won’t be another Feb 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, Fozz said: Yeah the Valentine storm could’ve been huge, but in the end it felt like a MECS even though it wasn’t. The shoveling was a huge pain. I recall for several days it actually DID look like we'd get some big snow out of it (like a foot or so), but as it got within the short range it looked "warmer" and like we might end up with rain. But it was so darned cold, and it was very entrenched, that in the end it was quite the ice and sleet event...the globals were of course scouring the cold out way too fast. I recall eastern MD got very severe icing out of that...the cold layer was shallower so they didn't get "saved" by sleet like we did a bit farther west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said: I recall for several days it actually DID look like we'd get some big snow out of it (like a foot or so), but as it got within the short range it looked "warmer" and like we might end up with rain. But it was so darned cold, and it was very entrenched, that in the end it was quite the ice and sleet event...the globals were of course scouring the cold out way too fast. I recall eastern MD got very severe icing out of that...the cold layer was shallower so they didn't get "saved" by sleet like we did a bit farther west Yeah it looked like a potential 12-18” storm, until a few days out there was a huge north trend and even talk of us getting rain instead. The overall pattern was good, but not pristine. So in the end, we got a wintry mix and the CAD did some great work for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: I recall for several days it actually DID look like we'd get some big snow out of it (like a foot or so), but as it got within the short range it looked "warmer" and like we might end up with rain. But it was so darned cold, and it was very entrenched, that in the end it was quite the ice and sleet event...the globals were of course scouring the cold out way too fast. I recall eastern MD got very severe icing out of that...the cold layer was shallower so they didn't get "saved" by sleet like we did a bit farther west Yeah I think even the night of the storm we were expecting 12 plus inches out in Winchester and it did start as snow before quickly transitioning to torrential sleet all night long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 11 minutes ago, Fozz said: Yeah the Valentine storm could’ve been huge, but in the end it felt like a MECS even though it wasn’t. The shoveling was a huge pain. IMO, both the 2007 and 2014 Valentine's Day storms were decent. We could've been 35 and rain the entire time, but we got frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: IMO, both the 2007 and 2014 Valentine's Day storms were decent. We could've been 35 and rain the entire time, but we got frozen. Exactly. In the end I was content in 2007. Also were you in Reisterstown in 2014? Apparently it was a borderline HECS there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: Exactly. In the end I was content in 2007. Also were you in Reisterstown in 2014? Apparently it was a borderline HECS there. 2014 was like 18” in those areas up towards where I am now. WAA + ULL added up to near 2 feet in some spots if I’m not mistaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: Exactly. In the end I was content in 2007. Also were you in Reisterstown in 2014? Apparently it was a borderline HECS there. No. I worked for Montgomery County, but lived in York County, PA. We worked the event and were surprised at the disparity of the snow reports. Damascus reported M21.5", but Takoma Park had M12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 WB 12Z GEFS, our one in 30 chance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 WB 12Z CMC 2 in 20 chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GEFS, our one in 30 chance.... I see maybe 8 to 10 hits to the south which tells me if we have a north Trend it may be cold enough to snow up our way..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 29 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: So in all seriousness, how is the pattern looking? I am seeing solidly positive 2m temp anamolies for Feb 14 on the 6z GEFS and the same thing from the 00z EPS at the end of its run. Are we still thinking this rolls into a better pattern for the second half of Feb or is it losing the progression altogether? I know the weeklies were still looking pretty good as of yesterday. Still looks good to me, if we have temp issues with this mean longwave flow in Feb...it's time to pack it in and find a new hobby. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Still looks good to me, if we have temp issues with this mean longwave flow in Feb...it's time to pack it in and find a new hobby. it's a really quick change. the Aleutian low develops explosively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 So far there are some changes on the Euro vs 0z. That ULL is further North and east and not as strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Ridge on Euro is too far east at 120. Not liking this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Probably only 14/15 and 15/16? 15/16 doesn't really count as that wasn't really a comeback but all of our annual snow from one storm in January. I remember 14/15 being pretty solidly wintry - that was the year Boston got just storm after storm right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 OK, ULL rolled back and shaped like a sideways egg. So is our s/w down south. Very scientific here people, keep up. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 You could cook an egg with our 850s so far. See what I did there? 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 12z gefs looks on track 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Temps are now ok, but she looks like she;s gonna swing wide right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 this run of the euro aint it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Cute little CAD signal for us and the storm is closer to the coast vs 0z, but Yeah, she gone to the fishes. See ya at 18z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, Shad said: this run of the euro aint it You ain't lyin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 12z gefs looks on track feels like we have been stuck on 384 for 4 days 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 8 minutes ago, Ji said: feels like we have been stuck on 384 for 4 days No, even been stuck beyond 384. This is progress! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 21 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: 15/16 doesn't really count as that wasn't really a comeback but all of our annual snow from one storm in January. I remember 14/15 being pretty solidly wintry - that was the year Boston got just storm after storm right? December 14 was a torch. I believe NYC had less then a inch going into mid January that year but finished with over 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 GEFS quickly turns cold starting on Feb 14. This is our new target. It may have shifted a couple days later from a week ago, but we're at the point that we cannot afford another delay, however minor it is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 13 minutes ago, Ji said: feels like we have been stuck on 384 for 4 days nah, it had been after 384 hours lmao it's finally getting into range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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