brooklynwx99 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 7 minutes ago, frd said: Appears the undercutting trough developing under the block has slowed significantly the last 48 hours. Atlantic also looks different versus a couple days ago. Maybe require a few additional days to get to a better pattern, or maybe the modeling is simply not correct. Waiting on others to chime in. it hasn't slowed. it's been in nearly the same spot for two weeks 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it hasn't slowed. it's been in nearly the same spot for two weeks Thanks, I must be impatient. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: The latest GFS runs are dumping even more NS energy southward ahead of the amplified central Canada ridge- ends up with a much sharper/further west trough and develops a bit of a low with some snow as it presses south. Ofc it completely crushes the southern wave as it progresses eastward. 6z GEFS has the same idea with a quick shot of snow along the boundary followed by a suppressed track for the main wave. Verbatim this would be a nice winter storm for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EPS not good for the 5th. The takeaway from the 0z model suite(including the 6z GEFS) is a storm track a bit too far south for our area. Plenty of disparity across guidance to arrive at that general outcome though. Still about 8 days out, so we simply cannot know yet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 At least the GFS is offering us a consolation prize before it literally crushes our hopes and dreams lol. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: I was disappointed in the entire EPS run but will wait for the experts. Seemed like a step back to me. Not much progression and trough weakening as it heads east. SER is holding tough. But it is just one run. Don't need an expert to state what you just said. You nailed it. Trof buries itself essentially in the SW and the height rise in the SE eventually forming a WAR that bridges the SE Canada Ridge and the SER. Has happened a few times already this season. Wouldn't bridge jump tho. Maybe just a small delay...we just can't know yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 30 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Don't need an expert to state what you just said. You nailed it. Trof buries itself essentially in the SW and the height rise in the SE eventually forming a WAR that bridges the SE Canada Ridge and the SER. Has happened a few times already this season. Wouldn't bridge jump tho. Maybe just a small delay...we just can't know yet. You both need to chill, or I don't think either of you will make it. And your WAR phobia has surfaced again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Here are the 3 major ens around Feb 10 just priot to where the weeklies were showing our large scale pattern change (around the 11th/12th). All 3 are basically lock step with one another. The trof in the SE is slower to move out and stronger. Haven't that delay in timing and the strength, it allows heights to rise along the SE. Now maybe this is just a delay, but there's no sense glazing over the data staring at us. The look degraded overnight and this isn't a good trend we want to see right now: 2 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Here are the 3 major ens around Feb 10 just priot to where the weeklies were showing our large scale pattern change (around the 11th/12th). All 3 are basically lock step with one another. The trof in the SE is slower to move out and stronger. Haven't that delay in timing and the strength, it allows heights to rise along the SE. Now maybe this is just a delay, but there's no sense glazing over the data staring at us. The look degraded overnight and this isn't a good trend we want to see right now: Two weeks out. Relax. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: You both need to chill, or I don't think either of you will make it. And your WAR phobia has surfaced again. ? I don't want to debate. I'm not here to 'ruin your vibe' as you state either. I want the epic pattern as much as anyone. But why should we cherry pick? I'm optimistic when it is deemed a good road where we are headed and pessimistic when the data appears to have taken a step back. This is a step back. Again, I didn't say winter cancel. It might just be a small delay. We don't know yet. But truth is, we dojt want to delay too much. Maybe we just are rushing things and the change is closer to the 15th, not the 12th. I hope that's the case. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 that trough in the SW has been there for like 10 days on the weeklies 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 this is remarkable consistency with that feature. I don't think a step back has been taken 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Here are the 3 major ens around Feb 10 just priot to where the weeklies were showing our large scale pattern change (around the 11th/12th). All 3 are basically lock step with one another. The trof in the SE is slower to move out and stronger. Haven't that delay in timing and the strength, it allows heights to rise along the SE. Now maybe this is just a delay, but there's no sense glazing over the data staring at us. The look degraded overnight and this isn't a good trend we want to see right now: Trend... come on dude I want you to go back over the previous several runs and show me that they were moving in this direction then I'll buy your trend joke but if the overnight was just one run then I'm sorry that isn't a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: You both need to chill, or I don't think either of you will make it. And your WAR phobia has surfaced again. I am ready though to see the mean trough setup in the east inside of D15. It’s been hovering just outside that range for a bit now. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 The 0z EPS is clearly showing that the trough in the SW is getting kicked out and on the move east, just as the Weeklies have been showing for some time. There is also ridging showing up on the west coast at day 15… Here is day 13 & day 15 on the 0z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I don't see any sudden degradation or can kicking with the pattern progression heading towards mid Feb. Compare the latest GEFS for around the 12th to 5 runs ago. Latest run looks better to me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 24 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Ralph and Will are already wavering...only a matter of time before their squirming rubs off on the more vulnerable and weak then BOOM I think guidance was rushing the change and we are back to where we were a week ago. Looking more towards the middle of the month. We got too excited seeing it showing sooner than originally forecast. CAPE is on some kick a out me and the WAR but that feature was our friend in 2016 and was a friend 3 weeks ago right before the pattern flipped and we got our 10 days of winter. That WAR is a natural.progression on this pattern evolution. It's not a phobia lol. We will get there and we will haveanour stretch of winter. But in reality, should we expect 5 straight weeks of a wi ter via a locked in pattern or should we temper our expectations and hope for another 7-10 day stretch in there with a possible big storm? I think this goes both ways....ppl set themselves up for so.e fantasy extending KU pattern locking in for 6 weeks. We all know that is super rare. Could it happen? Maybe. But we should he balanced in our thoughts and realistic too. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: I don't see any sudden degradation or can kicking with the pattern progression heading towards mid Feb. Compare the latest GEFS for around the 12th to 5 runs ago. Latest run looks better to me. Ninjad I think my comments were misconstrued here. I am saying the same darn thing lol. Instead of the rush to bring this change that last 3 days of runs were doing, we are back to our original al schedule around mid month. So technically, we unkicked the can (rushing things) and kicked it back. As you were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ninjad He said the opposite of what you said 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Same general theme on the 6z GEFS. The trough is getting kicked out of the SW & ridging is developing on the west coast at day 16. Here are day 13 & 16 on the 6z GEFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 ALL 3 main global ensembles show the trough getting kicked out of the SW & ridging developing on the west coast. Here is the 0z GEPS on day 13 & 16. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Good posts @Blizzard of 93 and we still have a chance on Feb 3-6 before the transient ridge, before the SW trough undercuts again 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ninjad I think my comments were misconstrued here. I am saying the same darn thing lol. Instead of the rush to bring this change that last 3 days of runs were doing, we are back to our original al schedule around mid month. So technically, we unkicked the can (rushing things) and kicked it back. As you were. You agreed with what WW said in his post. You literally said the pattern degraded overnight. You get flustered easily. Maybe just refrain and don't make the "panic' post here? 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 17 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: He said the opposite of what you said Did he though? Or was his approach just more to suit what you want to hear? He said the same thing but instead of saying the day 14 looks degraded and maybe it's just a delay from the original Feb 11 change, as I stated....he said the pattern change still looks to be coming around mid month (Feb 15) so everything still looks good. Just 2 different posting styles imho saying essentially the same thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 All these LR maps posted to calm WW and Ralph lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, CAPE said: All these LR maps posted to calm WW and Ralph lol. It had to be done… lol… 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: It had to be done… lol… Yeah. We don't want this sort of thing to spread to the masses lol. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Did he though? Or was his approach just more to suit what you want to hear? He said the same thing but instead of saying the day 14 looms degraded and maybe it's just a delay from the original Feb 11 change, as I stated....he said the pattern change still looks to be coming around mid month (Feb 15) so everything still looks good. Just 2 different posting styles imho saying essentially the same thing. You edited your post...so...yeah 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Did he though? Or was his approach just more to suit what you want to hear? He said the same thing but instead of saying the day 14 looms degraded and maybe it's just a delay from the original Feb 11 change, as I stated....he said the pattern change still looks to be coming around mid month (Feb 15) so everything still looks good. Just 2 different posting styles imho saying essentially the same thing. Dude. Stop with the mental gymnastics lol. Move on. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Dude. Stop with the mental gymnastics lol. Move on.Or just put him and WW on ignore. Makes threads far more readable.Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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