Maestrobjwa Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it seems like the crap Pacific is due to a +EAMT that is supercharging the Pacific jet for a bit… this is similar to December, but it shouldn’t be as bad given a colder source region and lingering AN heights into AK and Siberia once the effects of the +EAMT wear off and the Pacific jet retracts (which, again, it likely will), we should see a more favorable pattern develop mid month, similar to what happened in Jan Ain't gonna lie...don't like the idea of throwing away three weeks of prime climo. Waiting until mid Feb basically gives us one shot at getting a big one. (Prime climo starts to decline after PD). Hope we can sneak in something else before mid Feb... What we have now is AWESOME--however, by itself it won't help us to get above average, I don't think. And that's the bar for this winter imo, given the uncertainty after this year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Ain't gonna lie...don't like the idea of throwing away three weeks of prime climo. Waiting until mid Feb basically gives us one shot at getting a big one. (Prime climo starts to decline after PD). Hope we can sneak in something else before mid Feb... What we have now is AWESOME--however, by itself it won't help us to get above average, I don't think. And that's the bar for this winter imo, given the uncertainty after this year. Getting 2 over-performers this week is making me pretty optimistic for the rest of winter. El Niño winters tend to be Jan to March, from what I've learned from the experts around here. The models are also not doing well in the long-range. They will likely show something completely different next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ain't gonna lie...don't like the idea of throwing away three weeks of prime climo. Waiting until mid Feb basically gives us one shot at getting a big one. (Prime climo starts to decline after PD). Hope we can sneak in something else before mid Feb... What we have now is AWESOME--however, by itself it won't help us to get above average, I don't think. And that's the bar for this winter imo, given the uncertainty after this year. it is what it is though. this winter was always going to come down to one or two big storms. i’m also pretty sure that some in the MA are also AN to date after today. they have to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it is what it is though. this winter was always going to come down to one or two big storms. i’m also pretty sure that some in the MA are also AN to date after today. they have to be Not quite, but a solid step in that direction. Median for my part of the sub (BWI) is 15 inches; average around 18". This week could get us to 8-10" depending on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 34 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it is what it is though. this winter was always going to come down to one or two big storms. i’m also pretty sure that some in the MA are also AN to date after today. they have to be They are, but if they go the next couple weeks with no snow they will be back to below again lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: They are, but if they go the next couple weeks with no snow they will be back to below again lol Yep I'm at 15" and counting for the season. Ahead of average, but 3 weeks of prime average adding will put me behind (27" seasonal avg) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Yep I'm at 15" and counting for the season. Ahead of average, but 3 weeks of prime average adding will put me behind (27" seasonal avg) I'm in the same boat. Ill probably be SLIGHTLY above climo for this date by the end of today...but by the time we get to our next window of opportunity, if the next 2-3 weeks go the way I currently think, I will be WAY behind again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: They are, but if they go the next couple weeks with no snow they will be back to below again lol For most of the MA if they go this far into winter with a large enough deficit they almost never make it up throughout the rest of the season. DCA could very well be more than halfway to climo after today, a repeat of this week but in mid-Feb would be sufficient to get to AN for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Well, now we have a choice: We can either spend the day dreading what losing 2-3 weeks may do, or enjoy what's falling right now. Dreading would be easy to fall into (very easy), but I'm gonna try my darndest to practice gratitude and appreciate this. Besides, we don't know if we get more or not...may as well lean all the way into this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well, now we have a choice: We can either spend the day dreading what losing 2-3 weeks may do, or enjoy what's falling right now. Dreading would be easy to fall into (very easy), but I'm gonna try my darndest to practice gratitude and appreciate this. Besides, we don't know if we get more or not...may as well lean all the way into this! Plus there's still the part of February after the pattern changes back to a favorable one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Well, now we have a choice: We can either spend the day dreading what losing 2-3 weeks may do, or enjoy what's falling right now. Dreading would be easy to fall into (very easy), but I'm gonna try my darndest to practice gratitude and appreciate this. Besides, we don't know if we get more or not...may as well lean all the way into this!February was never suppose to be this horrible 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, Ji said: February was never suppose to be this horrible I get the disappointment with the upcoming look (I am too). But all the same: Dread tomorrow or enjoy today...for me I'm gonna try and enjoy today. Snow is more precious these days...so why not enjoy it while it's here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 RAIN lol Shame we can't get a perfect track like this during prime climo... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: RAIN lol Shame we can't get a perfect track like this during prime climo... I get what you're driving at, but I also don't see a high pressure in Quebec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I get the disappointment with the upcoming look (I am too). But all the same: Dread tomorrow or enjoy today...for me I'm gonna try and enjoy today. Snow is more precious these days...so why not enjoy it while it's here?I’m going to dread today and tomorrow. I love digital snow more than real snow though I love both 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: RAIN lol Shame we can't get a perfect track like this during prime climo... Only 1007 mb though. The real pain would be a sub 985 mb low in that position and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 The GFS looks horrid. Perfect track rainstorm for Fargo, ND at 384. Enjoy today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 The GFS looks horrid. Perfect track rainstorm for Fargo, ND at 384. Enjoy today.Yea just a disaster in modeling recently for our epic month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: I get what you're driving at, but I also don't see a high pressure in Quebec? I know @psuhoffman is kind of being a bit humorous and tongue-in-cheek with the "perfect track rainstorm" look. But really, the pattern and flow at that time is horrible. It's not like it's a marginal or halfway decent look yet we're still getting screwed, where previous years we'd have fared better. We wouldn't far well in ANY year with that pattern, I believe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: I know @psuhoffman is kind of being a bit humorous and tongue-in-cheek with the "perfect track rainstorm" look. But really, the pattern and flow at that time is horrible. It's not like it's a marginal or halfway decent look yet we're still getting screwed, where previous years we'd have fared better. We wouldn't far well in ANY year with that pattern, I believe. The way I figure it, if the elephant really is affecting seasonal snow, than we might as well enjoy what happens now. Who knows by the time I'm an old man people may ask what snow was like lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 This has basically been a La Nina winter (yet again) so I'm not surprised February looks like it will suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: This has basically been a La Nina winter (yet again) The STJ says otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 GEFS extended (which I assume just reverts to el nino analogs after two weeks out, but that's an uninformed cynical guess) looks good in early to mid february. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 19 minutes ago, Ji said: Yea just a disaster in modeling recently for our epic month December looked sweet as modeled on November 19. But climo won. Just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 17 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: I know @psuhoffman is kind of being a bit humorous and tongue-in-cheek with the "perfect track rainstorm" look. But really, the pattern and flow at that time is horrible. It's not like it's a marginal or halfway decent look yet we're still getting screwed, where previous years we'd have fared better. We wouldn't far well in ANY year with that pattern, I believe. It's just a troll job. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: The STJ says otherwise. I don't care if I got 50 feet of rain in December; nationwide, the winners and losers in the snow dept. looks just like a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 13 minutes ago, mattie g said: It's just a troll job. I know, I know...but it's just not funny especially coming from someone who is well respected and knowledgeable (and I very much respect PSU's input and knowledge, don't get me wrong!). We get enough "regular" non-trolling whining and complaining in here as it is, why add to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 17 minutes ago, paulythegun said: GEFS extended (which I assume just reverts to el nino analogs after two weeks out, but that's an uninformed cynical guess) looks good in early to mid february. The pattern should get good again, just in time for me to return from Seattle on the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: it seems like the crap Pacific is due to a +EAMT that is supercharging the Pacific jet for a bit… this is similar to December, but it shouldn’t be as bad given a colder source region and lingering AN heights into AK and Siberia once the effects of the +EAMT wear off and the Pacific jet retracts (which, again, it likely will), we should see a more favorable pattern develop mid month, similar to what happened in Jan Have you found that Mountain Torque actually does that though? I once calculated all the +EAMT events and found no strong correlation to the current and future pattern. Pressure over the Himalaya's was easy to read/record too, on the satellite data going back to 1948. They said that it correlates to 10mb warming, but I even got a weak signal there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The pattern should get good again, just in time for me to return from Seattle on the 10th. I was thinking of a Whistler trip in early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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