NorthArlington101 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Anyone ever chased a true Carolina Crusher or down to VA beach? I’d love to see some serious snow by the ocean but I feel like you could wait days to be plowed out… if they’ve got plows down there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Anyone ever chased a true Carolina Crusher or down to VA beach? I’d love to see some serious snow by the ocean but I feel like you could wait days to be plowed out… if they’ve got plows down there I chased to Virginia Beach in early January 2017. Stayed in a cabin at First Landing State Park. Would highly recommend. The rangers actually shoveled us out. There was a blizzard warning in effect and winds on the beach were over 55 mph. Plows were running and with a four wheel drive vehicle I had no difficulty getting around. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 13 minutes ago, cbmclean said: "Quasi-omega block"? What is quasi about it? It is only briefly an omega configuration, and a bit of a sloppy one at that. The western trough pretty quickly undercuts and builds eastward underneath the central Canada ridge. An atmospheric block implies a sustained pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Anyone ever chased a true Carolina Crusher or down to VA beach? I’d love to see some serious snow by the ocean but I feel like you could wait days to be plowed out… if they’ve got plows down there I lived there through a few. There is like 1 plow per City so better have contingency plans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I don’t think the 12z GFS will have as strong of a shredder over us based on what I’m seeing around 132 hours . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 As the ridge gets undercut it becomes a defacto block, but displaced well south of usual. It's also evolving kind of opposite the usual progression where we either build blocking from Scandanavia or western Atlantic wave breaking. Early February is probably one of the only times it can be cold enough for a ridge that far south to work out. Obviously the nino jet undercutting is a big part of the equation also. I am a little worried the flow is going to be too suppressive for that Feb 6th threat. Just glancing at the h5 for that period it has the look of a carrolina snowstorm more than DC. But specific syniptic event's do not always follow the pattern script, there can be meso factors that could cause the wave to amplify more than typical. Either way I wouldn't be too upset if this first threat ends up squashed, I think we will have plenty of opportunities as waves eject from the southwest and as the ridging pulls north some later in the month they will have more room to amplify. I am not poo pooing this first threat, its got my interest, but this is just our first chance in what is likely to be a very long period of tracking coming. Hope everyone is resting up now. Let’s hope I’d dc has truly become Raleigh now we can benefit from a southern slider for once 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 48 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Hear me out, what if we got 2-3 HECS in February? Stop. That's silly and insane. There's no way that.... Hold on. 2010 calling. brb 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: I don’t think the 12z GFS will have as strong of a shredder over us based on what I’m seeing around 132 hours . Yeah, trying to do some comparisons here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: I don’t think the 12z GFS will have as strong of a shredder over us based on what I’m seeing around 132 hours . Now I dunno...looks like the ull digs further south than 6z...but we're not in range yet..so who knows 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Not sure anything will come of it this run. A lot of the energy from our wave got left behind in the other trough still out in the PAC. Too weak this run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 33 minutes ago, WVclimo said: I chased to Virginia Beach in early January 2017. Stayed in a cabin at First Landing State Park. Would highly recommend. The rangers actually shoveled us out. There was a blizzard warning in effect and winds on the beach were over 55 mph. Plows were running and with a four wheel drive vehicle I had no difficulty getting around. If I remember that one correctly, Carolina, Central VA, and the beaches were crushed. Even southern MD got snow. Fairfax County was the line and we had pretty much nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 yeah, it's even more suppressive this run...killing that poor wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 It's a major shift from 6z...I'm sure we're going to see wild swings and some wild solutions between now and the 5th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's a major shift from 6z...I'm sure we're going to see wild swings and some wild solutions between now and the 5th. Yup, we're going to see many solutions over the next few days most likely. Right now, I'm kind of in agreement with the thinking that @psuhoffman mentioned above, that this will probably be more suppressed for the most part in the end. But even if we don't get in on the best, we still could quite possibly get something out of it. Just going to have to wait and watch patiently. One small thing I noticed, for whatever it's worth...the 2-m temperatures around that time have been showing up as colder. I know you have to take the GFS thermals with a grain of salt out in that range, but not too long ago it was getting us well up into the 40s even with that high moving in. Of course, the overall look has changed in that time too, to an extent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Canadian is better the shredder and gets precip up to us. Unfortunately it's rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Are we ignoring the GFS/CMC/EURO all having a clipper push through on Wednesday? Doesn’t look super exciting but favored spots get T-2” out of it. Only 5 days out 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27 Author Share Posted January 27 16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Are we ignoring the GFS/CMC/EURO all having a clipper push through on Wednesday? Doesn’t look super exciting but favored spots get T-2” out of it. Only 5 days out Yes it’s being ignored but I questioned that last night as well. It’s a Huron clipper lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Yes it’s being ignored but I questioned that last night as well. It’s a Huron clipper lolFlies in at a funny angle for sure. Can’t remember anything like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 31 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Canadian is better the shredder and gets precip up to us. Unfortunately it's rain Long way to go. The most recent ensembles(the big 3) implied a SE/MA storm with some frozen. The 6z GEFS was pretty damn nice for this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 52 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's a major shift from 6z...I'm sure we're going to see wild swings and some wild solutions between now and the 5th. Right now we are in 0.5” to 10.5” model mode 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: Latest EPS MJO appears to finally want to move again through 7 toward 8. Convection finally been flaring in Central eq Pac. Should continue to PH. 8 imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 12z GEFS is more scattershot among the members compared to 6z. There are a few with snow in the deep south, and a few that rain on us. Most are in the middle somewhere, and some don't have much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 45 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Are we ignoring the GFS/CMC/EURO all having a clipper push through on Wednesday? Doesn’t look super exciting but favored spots get T-2” out of it. Only 5 days out The 12z GFS and now on board GEM gives Augusta 1.5 - 3.0 inches from this system at 96 - 120 Upstairs temps. look good but likely an elevation event unless we chill a few degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, CAPE said: 12z GEFS is more scattershot among the members compared to 6z. There are a few with snow in the deep south, and a few that rain on us. Most are in the middle somewhere, and some don't have much of anything. I'll take it at this range 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: I'll take it at this range It's not bad, but plenty of spread, and a step back from 6z. Plenty of time. Still in the game. We just cant know yet. What did I leave out lol? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: It's not bad, but plenty of spread, and a step back from 6z. Plenty of time. Still in the game. We just cant know yet. What did I leave out lol? Not much. You’ve been all over this for a week now. It’s something to track for now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 22 minutes ago, CAPE said: It's not bad, but plenty of spread, and a step back from 6z. Plenty of time. Still in the game. We just cant know yet. What did I leave out lol? 0z models will be telling 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 9 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Not much. You’ve been all over this for a week now. It’s something to track for now It has been persistent on guidance for awhile now for sure. If it doesn't work out it will still help to reinforce lower pressure off of Atlantic Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 0z models will be telling Truth. And until then, we just can't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Damn, the Euro h5 vs 0z for that Wed deal is different. That thing is kinda digging for oil on this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts