Fozz Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Wow this is mind blowing. And it’s on the 14th year anniversary of you know what. And it was right around the 10 day range when it started showing up on the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I recall before the larger storm 5th-7th in Feb 2010 there was 7-10 in of snow around Jan 30-31; before that it had been mild with rain around Jan 26th. Then there was a third snowfall event around Feb 10th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 hours ago, Heisy said: Fun days ahead with this omega block. Gonna see all sorts of wild runs. We have to see how strong the “shredder” ends up being. Congrats DT, Jesus Christ 2-3’ in VA it’s still snowing at the end of the run . What’s the last HECS that Richmond got where both Hampton roads and DC was mostly fringed? I know Richmond big snows are rare so we know this isn’t sticking but it shows the pattern potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 WB 0Z EPS for the 5th. My big take: Great to see a potential snow storm on the east coast this early in February. Remember a week ago there was legitimate concern about how long it would take for the pattern to get cold enough again.... 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 13 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah, every ensemble has been leading to that look with no push back on the timing. it’s kind of uncanny Better stock up on hundreds of IPAs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Quick readers note- props to a bunch of you in this thread for highlighting for days the insanely interesting upper air patterns as shown on the uber long range modeling and for further saying that at some point some crazy solutions are gonna pop up in the fantasy range. That euro map is exactly what many of you have been saying will start to show up in response to the progged pattern. That indeed is a wild solution. well done in particular @CAPE @Heisy @brooklynwx99 @psuhoffman @stormtracker among others. Just wanted to shout out the excellent discussions you all have had for over a week now at least about the period ahead. 20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: i mean, you tell me… here’s the projected pattern for Feb compared to strong/super Ninos and weak/moderate Ninos. you tell me We are going to have a lot of fun tracking, and, you better get a good snow shovel. And a snowblower. Gonna need them lots. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 hours ago, stormtracker said: lol..it's a Richmond HECS Aleet aleet. Now we get to read how the Euro is infallible and how he knew all along blah blah until it's actually wrong of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 The GFS goes nuts with dropping additional NS energy southward and phasing it with the initial wave that rides overtop the amplifying ridge. It has a more amped poleward ridge configuration that allows NS energy to dig further southward- that would likely damp/suppress any wave tracking eastward underneath. The ridge configuration is different on the EURO- it broadens out with more of a bridge with the ridging out west over AK/W Canada, and has the NS energy shifting more eastward towards the 50-50 region. There is better wave spacing and it's less suppressive. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 There is notable improvement on the 6z GEFS compared to previous ens runs. Less disparity among the members, with the UL energy in a more favorable position over Atlantic Canada on the mean. Much stronger signal for frozen in the MA. 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Imagine a Feb 5 HECS during our "lull" before the ens/weeklies epic pattern even starts out towards the 12th of Feb? 9 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 More friendly reminders lol. Seems more like HE finally learned something they already knew. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 It didn’t hit parts of our area flush obviously (and 100% did hit other parts of our area flush) , but these kinds of wild upper air patterns are how you end up eventually with a March 1993 type scenario somewhere. If that kind of monster is gonna happen- it will be in response to this kind of pattern (assuming we do indeed get to this kind of pattern….) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 6 hours ago, Heisy said: Fun days ahead with this omega block. Gonna see all sorts of wild runs. We have to see how strong the “shredder” ends up being. Congrats DT, Jesus Christ 2-3’ in VA it’s still snowing at the end of the run . PSU fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 El Nino taking a deep breath currently....but he's getting ready to exhale. Buckle up. 9 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, snowfan said: That's a miss to the south 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 47 minutes ago, cbmclean said: PSU fringed PSU fringed by a big dog in a Nino? He’s doing that lip-licking, hand-rubbing peaking from behind a tree gif thing lol 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Not posting this to make a point or a case, mainly I just enjoyed "sneaky look" appearing in an AFD .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Troughing will persist over the Northeast CONUS much of next week as ridging over the Intermountain West is slowly shunted eastward. Within the eastern trough, a stout ULL will pivot from the Great Lakes toward the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Tuesday through Wednesday. With surface high pressure persisting over New England, there may be enough cold air in play for at least some of the precipitation to fall as snow east of the mountains (with all snow over the higher terrain anticipated). The GFS has been the most amplified with this wave, with the 27/00Z run showing an extended period of precipitation over the Mid-Atlantic. Other guidance is generally less bullish, but has the same overall pattern. As is typically the case, uncertainty looms surrounding this system for the middle of next week. That`s because (1) the upper-level low will be at least partially cutoff, and the behavior of such lows can be erratic and hard to predict even a couple days in advance; (2) the area this system is coming from has a bit less observational data for the models to ingest; and (3) temperatures east of the mountains will be marginal, casting doubt on precipitation type. All-in-all, the system has a bit of a sneaky look to it, and bears close monitoring. But, at least from a climatological standpoint, it is not the traditional pattern that brings significant (i.e. warning- level) snow to the lower elevations of the Mid-Atlantic. Beyond that, models diverge quite a bit. This is because they are having trouble resolving a quasi-omega block developing over eastern NOAM during the latter half of next week. Temperature/precipitation forecasts are both of low confidence later next week as a result. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 6 hours ago, Roger Smith said: I recall before the larger storm 5th-7th in Feb 2010 there was 7-10 in of snow around Jan 30-31; before that it had been mild with rain around Jan 26th. Then there was a third snowfall event around Feb 10th. In Clarksburg:. Sorry for the craptastic formatting on this phone 6.1" 30jan10 5.6" 02feb10 28.0" 06feb10 15.1" 10feb10 0.2" 16feb10 0.3" 25feb10 | 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Un BECS? That’s the third greatest beer in Germany! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: El Nino taking a deep breath currently....but he's getting ready to exhale. Buckle up. Well, if you are in DC and Baltimore a Hot Deep Breath yesterday 79-81 WTF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 hours ago, North Balti Zen said: Quick readers note- props to a bunch of you in this thread for highlighting for days the insanely interesting upper air patterns as shown on the uber long range modeling and for further saying that at some point some crazy solutions are gonna pop up in the fantasy range. That euro map is exactly what many of you have been saying will start to show up in response to the progged pattern. That indeed is a wild solution. well done in particular @CAPE @Heisy @brooklynwx99 @psuhoffman @stormtracker among others. Just wanted to shout out the excellent discussions you all have had for over a week now at least about the period ahead. Lol. Thanks, but i didn’t do shit. I’m worthless when it comes to that stuff. The other dudes are the heroes we need, but don’t deserve. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: PSU fringed by a big dog in a Nino? He’s doing that lip-licking, hand-rubbing peaking from behind a tree gif thing lol 1 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 hours ago, CAPE said: There is notable improvement on the 6z GEFS compared to previous ens runs. Less disparity among the members, with the UL energy in a more favorable position over Atlantic Canada on the mean. Much stronger signal for frozen in the MA. If a HECS happens and we can get it a little north over us, Imma need to find a full barrel of 120 minute. 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 7 hours ago, Roger Smith said: I recall before the larger storm 5th-7th in Feb 2010 there was 7-10 in of snow around Jan 30-31; before that it had been mild with rain around Jan 26th. Then there was a third snowfall event around Feb 10th. I'm further west and south, so missed some of the craziness, but this is what I got those couple of weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Hear me out, what if we got 2-3 HECS in February? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 54 minutes ago, Kay said: Not posting this to make a point or a case, mainly I just enjoyed "sneaky look" appearing in an AFD .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Troughing will persist over the Northeast CONUS much of next week as ridging over the Intermountain West is slowly shunted eastward. Within the eastern trough, a stout ULL will pivot from the Great Lakes toward the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Tuesday through Wednesday. With surface high pressure persisting over New England, there may be enough cold air in play for at least some of the precipitation to fall as snow east of the mountains (with all snow over the higher terrain anticipated). The GFS has been the most amplified with this wave, with the 27/00Z run showing an extended period of precipitation over the Mid-Atlantic. Other guidance is generally less bullish, but has the same overall pattern. As is typically the case, uncertainty looms surrounding this system for the middle of next week. That`s because (1) the upper-level low will be at least partially cutoff, and the behavior of such lows can be erratic and hard to predict even a couple days in advance; (2) the area this system is coming from has a bit less observational data for the models to ingest; and (3) temperatures east of the mountains will be marginal, casting doubt on precipitation type. All-in-all, the system has a bit of a sneaky look to it, and bears close monitoring. But, at least from a climatological standpoint, it is not the traditional pattern that brings significant (i.e. warning- level) snow to the lower elevations of the Mid-Atlantic. Beyond that, models diverge quite a bit. This is because they are having trouble resolving a quasi-omega block developing over eastern NOAM during the latter half of next week. Temperature/precipitation forecasts are both of low confidence later next week as a result. "Quasi-omega block"? What is quasi about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Latest EPS MJO appears to finally want to move again through 7 toward 8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 As the ridge gets undercut it becomes a defacto block, but displaced well south of usual. It's also evolving kind of opposite the usual progression where we either build blocking from Scandanavia or western Atlantic wave breaking. Early February is probably one of the only times it can be cold enough for a ridge that far south to work out. Obviously the nino jet undercutting is a big part of the equation also. I am a little worried the flow is going to be too suppressive for that Feb 6th threat. Just glancing at the h5 for that period it has the look of a carrolina snowstorm more than DC. But specific syniptic event's do not always follow the pattern script, there can be meso factors that could cause the wave to amplify more than typical. Either way I wouldn't be too upset if this first threat ends up squashed, I think we will have plenty of opportunities as waves eject from the southwest and as the ridging pulls north some later in the month they will have more room to amplify. I am not poo pooing this first threat, its got my interest, but this is just our first chance in what is likely to be a very long period of tracking coming. Hope everyone is resting up now. 7 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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