Ji Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Beating will too it. Sorry will 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 16 minutes ago, Ji said: Beating will too it. Sorry will Is that really one of the members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Is that really one of the members?I found it on Twitter but I think it’s the control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 The +PNA has really improved on medium range models over the past few days, and the long range.. looking at next 15 days, we have a pretty good Pacific for the whole period.. This is a pattern change from what we were seeing in Dec and early January. I'm just afraid the indices waxes and wanes lately, so far in this El Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 46 minutes ago, Ji said: Beating will too it. Sorry will I might go with an above average March. 3/3 roll forwards support it so far.. plus the SOI is like +25 lately 18 Jan 2024 1011.14 1002.35 19.70 2.12 -2.79 17 Jan 2024 1011.11 1000.95 26.15 1.47 -3.26 16 Jan 2024 1011.57 1000.25 31.61 0.63 -3.72 15 Jan 2024 1012.37 1001.05 31.61 -0.18 -4.22 14 Jan 2024 1012.57 1002.35 26.43 -0.84 -4.63 13 Jan 2024 1012.32 1002.65 23.84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 hours ago, Ji said: Ugly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 9 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: But how about warmth at the beginning of met winter, though? Maybe I'm being too simplistic here, but...if it's December 1st and we've had a bit of a torch until late in the month, if there was never any cold air there in the first place...wouldn't it take from late Dec. to maybe last week to change the pattern (building cold in our source regions?) Or are you saying the source regions should've started out colder on Dec 1st and the weren't because of... Yes it affects us way more early in the season. That’s why Dec is warming the most and snow before Jan in DC becoming rare. Doesn’t mean it’s not affecting later at all but much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 hours ago, Ji said: this is for PSU's book Repeat of PD2 but with 20 years of warming 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Repeat of PD2 but with 20 years of warming I don't know.. this mid-Winter is doing a pretty good job with cold. I think we just really that much underestimate the PNA.. When it's positive, cold air seems to be no problem. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 hours ago, Ji said: Beating will too it. Sorry will 1980 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I don't know.. this mid-Winter is doing a pretty good job with cold. I think we just really that much underestimate the PNA.. When it's positive, cold air seems to be no problem. It’s a 200 hour op run. I was just teasing him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 That's a +3SD +NAO on the 18z GEFS hr 168. It connects with the lower part of the measurement in Europe and the US, too. Just impressive.. we haven't had much of that strength since 1997 (0 +analogs for the exact dates, Jan 22-28, since 1997). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 That's a +3SD +NAO on the 18z GEFS hr 168. It connects with the lower part of the measurement in Europe and the US, too. Just impressive.. we haven't had much of that strength since 1997 (0 +analogs for the exact dates, Jan 22-28, since 1997). Just clarifying that you know a super positive NAO isn’t a good thing, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just clarifying that you know a super positive NAO isn’t a good thing, right?He loves talking about warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS teleconnections look like they are heading the right way as we approach early February: Man gotta love that quadrifecta (tetrafecta?) of -PNA, +NAO, +AO, +EPO around 1/25. Other than that teleconnections are great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Jb https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1748188337423225035?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Jbhttps://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1748188337423225035?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5Alol him using 850 temps 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 lol him using 850 temps Devestating chill 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Could get some sort of frozen out of this. Would be messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 29 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Could get some sort of frozen out of this. Would be messy. Unbelievable that that's even on the table with +NAO as strong as it is. I haven't been saying to PSU that the NAO should be positive for us to see snow, I've said that the Pacific correlating, and in many cases more than evening it out (on both sides of the index), is interesting, and could result in better winter patterns going forward in this state since the NAO has almost as strong of a precip correlation as a temperature correlation here on the EC. (I'm not predicting snow or ice with the 25th storm). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Unbelievable that that's even on the table with +NAO as strong as it is. I haven't been saying to PSU that the NAO should be positive for us to see snow, I've said that the Pacific correlating, and in many cases more than evening it out (on both sides of the index), is interesting, and could result in better winter patterns going forward in this state since the NAO has almost as strong of a precip correlation as a temperature correlation here on the EC. (I'm not predicting snow or ice with the 25th storm).If the correlation is similar for precip and warmer temps, then isn’t warm and wet the likely outcome? 1047 high pressure in southern Canada and it’s raining lol. No thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Last nights eps was not kind to the eyes. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Last nights eps was not kind to the eyes.Feb 15 to March 10 unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Feb 15 to March 10 unfortunately Yea, as long as it comes idc. Just want one major event . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Yea, as long as it comes idc. Just want one major event .Move to dc area bro. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 So we looking at Feb for the next fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Did someone delete the obs thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 i really dont know what happened to the first week of Feb. This looks tragic we cant afford to be throwing away prime snow weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 it seems like the crap Pacific is due to a +EAMT that is supercharging the Pacific jet for a bit… this is similar to December, but it shouldn’t be as bad given a colder source region and lingering AN heights into AK and Siberia once the effects of the +EAMT wear off and the Pacific jet retracts (which, again, it likely will), we should see a more favorable pattern develop mid month, similar to what happened in Jan 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 PSU has been telling us to look beyond Feb 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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