WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26 Author Share Posted January 26 I’ve never seen this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 this is so zonked lmao wild omega block. i do like seeing polar flow get established, though 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Both storms look weird. Straight down from north and then back up the coast. Not sure I've seen an evolution like that and it actually resulting in snow for us They are sliding down the east side of the big central Canada ridge. They need to go to our west/south to have any chance, but guidance has shown it enough that it seems possible. Cold air is lacking though, to put it mildly. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26 Author Share Posted January 26 This is gonna get fun. I really feel we are headed into an remarkable period 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ve never seen this That explains DT's Pamela Anderson pattern. LOL 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: This is gonna get fun. I really feel we are headed into an remarkable period I wanna give it another 5-7 days to see the whites of the better pattern's eyes, but I'm of the same impression for now 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I wanna give it another 5-7 days to see the whites of the better pattern's eyes, but I'm of the same impression for now Similar. Could be some bonkers things happening the first 7-10 days of Feb, but with limited cold air, that doesn’t mean snow per se. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Similar. Could be some bonkers things happening the first 7-10 days of Feb, but with limited cold air, that doesn’t mean snow per se. yeah once you get to the 10th, that's when the trough opens up more into the ATL and heights rise over the WC and AK. that's when you have Arctic air to work with via cross polar flow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 you can see all of the ULLs stretching across the ATL. this is how you get big wave breaking that leads to a -NAO. almost like the ATL is blocking itself up before the block even really forms 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 It's going to get close to 80 in DC today! Let's see how models handle the current conditions, they have been showing big cold/good storm setups at 384hr, but it's been on the last 384hr panel for about 3-4 days now. 6z GFS ensemble mean has that really good -NAO/+PNA building at 384hr too: https://ibb.co/WWj2GBP It's a loading pattern on the map, so if those two areas go stronger beyond, then that's a really great setup in a year where the N. Hemisphere has been so wet, with a wet STJ. Sometimes when the initial day is so warm, LR models will back off the strong cold though. Let's see what happens, especially at 18z - 6z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 47 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: That explains DT's Pamela Anderson pattern. LOL DT's PA Pattern died with the issuance of the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Similar. Could be some bonkers things happening the first 7-10 days of Feb, but with limited cold air, that doesn’t mean snow per se. i think Feb 1-10 is going to be not warm enough for blowtorch but not cold enough for snow....its going to feel frustrating unless we thread the needle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, Ji said: i think Feb 1-10 is going to be too warm for blowtorch but not cold enough for snow....its going to feel frustrating unless we thread the needle. Yeah…tend to agree. 35-40F rain kinda pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, stormy said: DT's PA Pattern died with the issuance of the 00z GFS. We fall back on the Sistene Chapel pattern then 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 +17-20 days after Dulles all time January daily high's: https://ibb.co/q1CKGhS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 43 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you can see all of the ULLs stretching across the ATL. this is how you get big wave breaking that leads to a -NAO. almost like the ATL is blocking itself up before the block even really forms way too much trough in the PAC NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: +17-20 days after Dulles all time January daily high's: https://ibb.co/q1CKGhS we need to get out of MJO 5/6. MJO 7 and 8 can work in Feb nino. nice graphic! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, Ji said: way too much trough in the PAC NW that’s what gets kicked out or retrogrades. it’s not gonna stay there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: you can see all of the ULLs stretching across the ATL. this is how you get big wave breaking that leads to a -NAO. almost like the ATL is blocking itself up before the block even really forms Can someone please explain what exactly you mean when you say a 'wave breaking'? I've been around too long I'm embarrassed asking. Maybe I know it via different terminology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 31 minutes ago, Ji said: way too much trough in the PAC NW That should slide E under the ridge no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Can someone please explain what exactly you mean when you say a 'wave breaking'? I've been around too long I'm embarrassed asking. Maybe I know it via different terminology. The concept of wave breaking is common across many types of wave phenomenon. here is the wiki article about in a general sense for gravity waves. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_wave_breaking Rossby waves (our kind of waves in the 500 HP pattern) apparently can also "break", but like you I am not sure what that looks like on a 500 HP plot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Can someone please explain what exactly you mean when you say a 'wave breaking'? I've been around too long I'm embarrassed asking. Maybe I know it via different terminology. Can;t watch this myself at work, but this may be informative: https://m.facebook.com/NOAAClimateGov/videos/rossby-waves-and-wave-breaking/1527253234461813/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Perhaps the biggest story of the last 2 months is the drought busting amount of precipitation. Another widespread inch plus on the way over the next couple of days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26 Author Share Posted January 26 No gefs discussion? Must not be as good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 5 minutes ago, cbmclean said: The concept of wave breaking is common across many types of wave phenomenon. here is the wiki article about in a general sense for gravity waves. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_wave_breaking Rossby waves (our kind of waves in the 500 HP pattern) apparently can also "break", but like you I am not sure what that looks like on a 500 HP plot. I hate the term gravity waves....means something very different in astrophysics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Similar. Could be some bonkers things happening the first 7-10 days of Feb, but with limited cold air, that doesn’t mean snow per se. In this hobby for interesting weather more than anything else. Snow is nice, but first week of Feb looks fun either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: No gefs discussion? Must not be as good 4 minutes ago, TSG said: In this hobby for interesting weather more than anything else. Snow is nice, but first week of Feb looks fun either way GEFS still has that Feb 5-7 period as a time where some sort of low moves under the giant Canada ridge/block. Cold air is limited, but it’s got some interest. After that GEFS seems reluctant to get rid of the west coast trough quickly. Seems tied to how quick the Aleutian low is reestablishing. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26 Author Share Posted January 26 The system toward the end of next week bears watching. All of the models have it, of varying degrees of course 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 24 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The system toward the end of next week bears watching. All of the models have it, of varying degrees of course lol, Euro slides it under us and we get fringed...surface progresses colder but it's gone by then. We're too far north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Everyone hates extended snow maps but when I see hits to the South and East I know at least it's not a shut the blinds pattern. WB 12Z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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