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Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3


WinterWxLuvr
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7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

24 years ago today....ahhh. Anyway, now back to the long range stuff.

Best storm ever.. we were projected to get flurries that morning, then the radar showed precip moving inland from the ocean.. and it just kept going and going and going. I said to everyone, "there is no way that could miss us" but the local forecasts weren't updating.  20" here that day. 

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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

24 years ago today....ahhh. Anyway, now back to the long range stuff.

 

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Best storm ever.. we were projected to get flurries that morning, then the radar showed precip moving inland from the ocean.. and it just kept going and going and going. 20" here that day. 

I wasn't here for that event (hadn't moved to the area just yet), but my understanding is that yeah, it looked like no more than flurries.  Then suddenly the Jan. 24, 2000 18Z Eta (mesoscale model at the time) on the afternoon right before it hit showed the low a lot farther north with warning-level snow.  And it only increased thereafter.  I heard that on the late evening local news/weather, they were scurrying to mention newly-issued winter storm warnings for later that night and the next day.  Gotta love reverse busts!

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I just want 24” because I’ve never experienced 2 feet of snow in 1 storm or on the ground at once. I had 17” during Boxing Day 2010 in Hampton Roads in Chesapeake (Sorry, not Sorry) and 18” in 2016 in Pentagon City. I think next month is the time to go all in for a HECS based on everything we are seeing. 

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3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Best storm ever.. we were projected to get flurries that morning, then the radar showed precip moving inland from the ocean.. and it just kept going and going and going. I said to everyone, "there is no way that could miss us" but the local forecasts weren't updating.  20" here that day. 

I love all the new technology today, but there's part of me that's disappointed I'll likely never experience anything like this. 15-20" in a completely surprise blizzard.

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The amplifying Hudson ridge and associated wave break forces a lot of vorticity southward, developing a strong vortex underneath. This may ultimately act to dampen/force southward the shortwave ejecting eastward for the Feb 5th potential. This is still pretty far out so hard to know details, but the general idea looks similar on the GEFS.

These wave (breaking) interactions help to evolve the HL pattern from an amped central Canada ridge into a developing -NAO.

1706972400-Ba6FpLiR4i4.png

1707242400-cjLyA9BYsfk.png

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4 hours ago, Ji said:

Mjo spending alot of time in phase 7 before phase 8. However phase 7 in February in el nino is actually decent b17d13ee710b2163dd429f0be55883af.gif3d575df85a527d80f8fb550bf3c03556.jpg

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk


 

Phase 7 in ninos is when KUs start as a wave in the pacific. FWIW

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14 hours ago, stormy said:

Are we seeing something here that should not be happening??

This was my post late yesterday after being surprised by the 18z GFS op for a few minutes. I then realized with these words that the 18z was likely trash that would not stand the test of time. I didn't call it trash at the time for obvious reasons considering the euphoria.  240+ hours is almost always fantasy land for the GFS op.

The EPS still looks fine for Feb. 12 - March 12.

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1 hour ago, Ji said:

anyone who does not call for snow and cold is just a straight out moron

Why are some people calling for a torch in mid February?  I followed the link to BAM weather.  I clearly don't follow them.  It sort of feels like a good analogy of our political climate. Someone says wintry, the other says torch.  

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5 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Why are some people calling for a torch in mid February?  I followed the link to BAM weather.  I clearly don't follow them.  It sort of feels like a good analogy of our political climate. Someone says wintry, the other says torch.  

Hopefully it ends up being cold and snowy.

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Per GFS, Wed/Thurs and next Saturday 

Both storms look weird. Straight down from north and then back up the coast. Not sure I've seen an evolution like that and it actually resulting in snow for us

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