Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 24 years ago today....ahhh. Anyway, now back to the long range stuff. Best storm ever.. we were projected to get flurries that morning, then the radar showed precip moving inland from the ocean.. and it just kept going and going and going. I said to everyone, "there is no way that could miss us" but the local forecasts weren't updating. 20" here that day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 24 years ago today....ahhh. Anyway, now back to the long range stuff. 6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Best storm ever.. we were projected to get flurries that morning, then the radar showed precip moving inland from the ocean.. and it just kept going and going and going. 20" here that day. I wasn't here for that event (hadn't moved to the area just yet), but my understanding is that yeah, it looked like no more than flurries. Then suddenly the Jan. 24, 2000 18Z Eta (mesoscale model at the time) on the afternoon right before it hit showed the low a lot farther north with warning-level snow. And it only increased thereafter. I heard that on the late evening local news/weather, they were scurrying to mention newly-issued winter storm warnings for later that night and the next day. Gotta love reverse busts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 DT calling for a “Pamela Anderson pattern change” next week http:// 1 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, WeatherShak said: DT calling for a “Pamela Anderson pattern change” next week http:// . First, JB with the Sistine Chapel, and now this?!?!?! 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 I just want 24” because I’ve never experienced 2 feet of snow in 1 storm or on the ground at once. I had 17” during Boxing Day 2010 in Hampton Roads in Chesapeake (Sorry, not Sorry) and 18” in 2016 in Pentagon City. I think next month is the time to go all in for a HECS based on everything we are seeing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 If PD is the timeframe can we delay til like, just AFTER PD? Only a few days! I will be out of the country. I guess that might guarantee a KU… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: If PD is the timeframe can we delay til like, just AFTER PD? Only a few days! I will be out of the country. I guess that might guarantee a KU… NOOOOO sir! You know the rules: We urbanites don't get KUs after PD...so request denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: NOOOOO sir! You know the rules: We urbanites don't get KUs after PD...so request denied 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Gfs is falling in love with this N/S diver…. See if it spins anything up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Pretty wild pattern. Curious how it plays out once we get closer . 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Best storm ever.. we were projected to get flurries that morning, then the radar showed precip moving inland from the ocean.. and it just kept going and going and going. I said to everyone, "there is no way that could miss us" but the local forecasts weren't updating. 20" here that day. I love all the new technology today, but there's part of me that's disappointed I'll likely never experience anything like this. 15-20" in a completely surprise blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Mjo spending alot of time in phase 7 before phase 8. However phase 7 in February in el nino is actually decent Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Phase 7 Feb nino look familiar?Then phase 8Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 The amplifying Hudson ridge and associated wave break forces a lot of vorticity southward, developing a strong vortex underneath. This may ultimately act to dampen/force southward the shortwave ejecting eastward for the Feb 5th potential. This is still pretty far out so hard to know details, but the general idea looks similar on the GEFS. These wave (breaking) interactions help to evolve the HL pattern from an amped central Canada ridge into a developing -NAO. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 0z GEFS- pretty strong signal for low pressure off the southeast coast for the 5th. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 hours ago, Ji said: Mjo spending alot of time in phase 7 before phase 8. However phase 7 in February in el nino is actually decent Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk February 2010 we were still in a moderate El Nino and we were in Phase 7 moving to 8 when we picked up 23" of snow here in southern PA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 4 hours ago, Ji said: Mjo spending alot of time in phase 7 before phase 8. However phase 7 in February in el nino is actually decent Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Phase 7 in ninos is when KUs start as a wave in the pacific. FWIW 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 BAM not impressed with anything… https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1750860672244518912?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 14 hours ago, stormy said: Are we seeing something here that should not be happening?? This was my post late yesterday after being surprised by the 18z GFS op for a few minutes. I then realized with these words that the 18z was likely trash that would not stand the test of time. I didn't call it trash at the time for obvious reasons considering the euphoria. 240+ hours is almost always fantasy land for the GFS op. The EPS still looks fine for Feb. 12 - March 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 all ensembles are in near lock step with both each other and the weeklies. only a few days from the promised land connecting the two troughs 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 44 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: BAM not impressed with anything… https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1750860672244518912?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A anyone who does not call for snow and cold is just a straight out moron 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, Ji said: anyone who does not call for snow and cold is just a straight out moron Why are some people calling for a torch in mid February? I followed the link to BAM weather. I clearly don't follow them. It sort of feels like a good analogy of our political climate. Someone says wintry, the other says torch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 5 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Why are some people calling for a torch in mid February? I followed the link to BAM weather. I clearly don't follow them. It sort of feels like a good analogy of our political climate. Someone says wintry, the other says torch. Hopefully it ends up being cold and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Ooof we have to figure out how to cool the boundary layer for that northern stream low next week. That “should” be 1-3/2-4” 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ooof we have to figure out how to cool the boundary layer for that northern stream low next week. That “should” be 1-3/2-4” Huh? I'm I looking at the right things? Temps like plenty cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Nevermind, you're right. 32 sfc line all the way up in upstate NY. Dammit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nevermind, you're right. 32 sfc line all the way up in upstate NY. Dammit But second chance next Saturday provides mashed potatoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ooof we have to figure out how to cool the boundary layer for that northern stream low next week. That “should” be 1-3/2-4” For what dates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: For what dates? Per GFS, Wed/Thurs and next Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, WxUSAF said: Per GFS, Wed/Thurs and next Saturday Both storms look weird. Straight down from north and then back up the coast. Not sure I've seen an evolution like that and it actually resulting in snow for us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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