psuhoffman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 58 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the first week of Feb is officially interesting if that block gets far enough north and energy undercuts it A hudson bay high works just as well as a -NAO if there is a 50/50 stuck east of it and a STJ cutting under. Its not a HECS look but we've had plenty of SECS/MECS events from a setup like that. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 58 minutes ago, CAPE said: These super LR tools can't 'see' discrete threats. Only thing they are good for is indicating the general longwave pattern. From that, we can glean the potential for cold and snow. Goddamn snow maps lol. lol relax, Ji always poo poo's the weekly snow mean maps. And my point is regarding the control runs, it made a huge jump south today, but yea we want to see those 50" numbers centered over DC, and yes that can happen in this type of pattern. The control run can and does see discreet threats, its just an extended regular model run, when it shows the same general pattern, and it has consistently every day lately, it can hint at what the specifics COULD look like. But yea its likely to be way off at these ranges, no one should be freaking out about it, I said we have plenty of time...but its true that when/if we starting seeing those crazy 40"+ totals centered south of 40 on some of those long range control runs is when its go time. That's the look we typically get 1-2 weeks ahead of our crazy snow periods. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: jesus christ If we can just get it to connect to itself over the Atlantic then we will have recycling, perpetual snow, 24/7. I don't think snow was mentioned anywhere in Genesis though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is some crazy shit starting to show up in the long range. Storms getting trapped under 40* and meandering around. Redonculous retrogrades. Fun times ahead. Sorry for the banter but... LMAO - given your superb vocabulary skills I actually looked up "redonculous" with the thought "that's a new one!" Alas, my expectations were grounded. haha. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 2010 wasn't a strong nino, BUT...since this season isn't really behaving like a super strong nino if we want to be optimistic and add moderate nino's to the mix then I suppose it brings 1996 and 2011 into the equation. wait i thought it was tho? didn't it reach 1.5 C at one point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 12 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: wait i thought it was tho? didn't it reach 1.5 C at one point It was a strong Nino but not a super Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 59 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is some crazy shit starting to show up in the long range. Storms getting trapped under 40* and meandering around. Redonculous retrogrades. Fun times ahead. I love this time of year when blocking shows up complete Chaos that no one knows where the pieces will fall but if the blocking and cold set up here look out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Look y’all. Don’t settle. Seriously. Yes wanting to see those 50” totals over us is greedy. But do you realize what pattern the eps and gefs are showing? This is a once every 20 years type thing. This is the time to be greedy. There are 2 perfect match Feb/March nino analogs to that look. 2010 and 1958. Now is not the time to settle. It’s all chips in time. You have the -NAO/-EPO/+PNA right, but the strength of those anomalies does not match your analogs. Look at the NAO region, Euro weeklies has a +70dm anomaly, and 2010 was +250dm and 1958 +150dm, kind of a big difference. The PNA and EPO regions are similar though.. I would love that Pacific, but in reality we haven't seen that kind of pattern sustain over a 1-month period for a long time now (since 15-16). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 35 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: wait i thought it was tho? didn't it reach 1.5 C at one point 22 minutes ago, Fozz said: It was a strong Nino but not a super Nino. It’s classified as moderate by the ONI https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 You have the -NAO/-EPO/+PNA right, but the strength of those anomalies does not match your analogs. Look at the NAO region, Euro weeklies has a +70dm anomaly, and 2010 was +250dm and 1958 +150dm, kind of a big difference. The PNA and EPO regions are similar though.. I would love that Pacific, but in reality we haven't seen that kind of pattern sustain over a 1-month period for a long time now (since 15-16). Not happening since 15-16 is kind of irrelevant as it pertains to whether or not we can sustain a pattern in 2024. You poopoo’d on both of last weeks potentials too and cited all sorts of correlations and +dms, only for it to snow 10+” over a 4 day span in many places. These statistics and correlations only tell us so much. Sometimes those correlations mean something, other times they are mere coincidence. Obviously we take this one week at a time, but I highly doubt we’re incapable of sustaining a pattern anymore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: You have the -NAO/-EPO/+PNA right, but the strength of those anomalies does not match your analogs. Look at the NAO region, Euro weeklies has a +70dm anomaly, and 2010 was +250dm and 1958 +150dm, kind of a big difference. The PNA and EPO regions are similar though.. I would love that Pacific, but in reality we haven't seen that kind of pattern sustain over a 1-month period for a long time now (since 15-16). The weeklies are a smoothed mean. You’re never going to see a -3 Stdv block on a 30 day day 10-40 mean. But if you look at some of the individual control runs they show that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 @Stormchaserchuck1 this is what it looks like on members that have the pattern. The mean is smoothed by outliers that don’t agree. 7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Stormchaserchuck1 this is what it looks like on members that have the pattern. The mean is smoothed by outliers that don’t agree. My God that's a sweet look. Wow! HECS or bust. 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: My God that's a sweet look. Wow! HECS or bust. Agree. Droolworthy. If this H5 anomaly map verifies for a full month, and we don't get a HECS - or at minimum - a top 10 KU, I would be disappointed. Very disappointed. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: @Stormchaserchuck1 this is what it looks like on members that have the pattern. The mean is smoothed by outliers that don’t agree. I particularly like that EPO region which is stronger on the mean than your analogs.. my point is they are showing a -120dm +PNA vs +70dm -NAO which is weighted more toward a Pacific-dominant pattern, vs Atlantic mostly dominant in your analogs. The look is sweet though, I'm skeptical that it can come out that good as that, because of consistency, and the El Nino is weakening with cold water encroaching the subsurface, and the SOI recently going positive (17/18 El Nino's had a negative SOI right now)... but the interesting thing is, since the El Nino started waning, the +PNA correlation started happening, so I don't know.. maybe it continues to happen now unlike earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Agree. Droolworthy. If this H5 anomaly map verifies for a full month, and we don't get a HECS - or at minimum - a top 10 KU, I would be disappointed. Very disappointed. Yeah we'd better get a big one. Were you here in Jan 2016? I know you missed out on a lot of them, except Dec 2009. And even for the rest of us it's been 8 years now. I will say I haven't felt this confident about it since 2016. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, Fozz said: Yeah we'd better get a big one. Were you here in Jan 2016? I know you missed out on a lot of them, except Dec 2009. And even for the rest of us it's been 8 years now. Yep, I was here visiting my mom for Jan 2016. But I didn't post much here because I was going through some personal stuff (a divorce) I did enjoy the storm, we got about 30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Not a bad look for an ens mean 9-10D out. Would be great to score something during the "torch" before heading into primetime. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 10 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yep, I was here visiting my mom for Jan 2016. But I didn't post much here because I was going through some personal stuff (a divorce) I did enjoy the storm, we got about 30" That's amazing. Hope we can get something similar this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 18 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Agree. Droolworthy. If this H5 anomaly map verifies for a full month, and we don't get a HECS - or at minimum - a top 10 KU, I would be disappointed. Very disappointed. Chuck isn’t impressed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 9 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Not a bad look for an ens mean 9-10D out. Would be great to score something during the "torch" before heading into primetime. This has been showing up on guidance for awhile now. Probably our first legit shot at something, despite marginal cold air availability. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, CAPE said: This has been showing up on guidance for awhile now. Probably our first legit shot at something, despite marginal cold air availability. I'll be out of town so you can bank on it. 3-6" for the coastal plain and 6-10" N/W is my first call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 22 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Agree. Droolworthy. If this H5 anomaly map verifies for a full month, and we don't get a HECS - or at minimum - a top 10 KU, I would be disappointed. Very disappointed. That's an H5 map you rarely see. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, jayyy said: Not happening since 15-16 is kind of irrelevant as it pertains to whether or not we can sustain a pattern in 2024. You poopoo’d on both of last weeks potentials too and cited all sorts of correlations and +dms, only for it to snow 10+” over a 4 day span in many places. These statistics and correlations only tell us so much. Sometimes those correlations mean something, other times they are mere coincidence. Obviously we take this one week at a time, but I highly doubt we’re incapable of sustaining a pattern anymore. Not when the last time we saw it at all, was 15-16. that means it has happened 0 times recently, going back to then, basically opposite of your point. I hit the first snowstorm, and didn't think the 2nd one was going to trend better. I should have done better with the 2nd storm since it was in a ripe spot of rising-out-of strong -NAO. 1/2, but I hit the first threat and said it would be rain when models had a lot of snow so technically 2/3 this Winter. The correlations aren't perfect, but we also have the greatest anomaly for a consecutive month of a 6-year period on record over the N. Pacific '18-23 (-PNA) so I am really curious to see if we shatter that streak this year like basically all the LR models are currently saying.. Why not though we have an El Nino going for us this year. I just don't think those weeklies are as good as PSU is implying, is the only point I was making. 18z GFS ensembles LR also somewhat backed off that awesome look they were showing at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 26 minutes ago, CAPE said: This has been showing up on guidance for awhile now. Probably our first legit shot at something, despite marginal cold air availability. How dare you show a snow mean! lol Yeah, you and others have hit on this timeframe for a few days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Latest extended products(Euro, GFS, CMC) all have that look for around PD. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: It’s classified as moderate by the ONI https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm 1. Having 2009-10 as just moderate in that isn’t consistent as the ONI peaked at +1.6 and was still +1.5 during DJF. That’s a “strong” peak, not moderate. 2. That also has 1972-3 as only strong despite an ONI peak of +2.1, which means it actually had a “very strong” peak. So again not consistent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: @Stormchaserchuck1 this is what it looks like on members that have the pattern. The mean is smoothed by outliers that don’t agree. Here's a more detailed look at this H5 pattern... 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 24 years ago today....ahhh. Anyway, now back to the long range stuff. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Here's a more detailed look at this H5 pattern... Very clever, lolol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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