WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: this is what happens if that mid-week clipper bombs out, btw if it wraps up, you can slip a vort under the block with a 50/50 in place That was what I was thinking when I made that post earlier but the gfs fizzled. And then you responded about wave breaking and I thought to myself, I don’t know what he’s talking about so I showed myself out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I did it. Started. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 wonder if you can get a bowling ball to slip underneath. potent omega block 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: wonder if you can get a bowling ball to slip underneath. potent omega block Wow, and that's Feb. 3 while we're still apparently in the "transition" phase or whatever. Does that big omega block eventually push into the NAO space?? I thought that's what previous extended range indications were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 19 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I did it. Started. Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Wow, and that's Feb. 3 while we're still apparently in the "transition" phase or whatever. Does that big omega block eventually push into the NAO space?? I thought that's what previous extended range indications were. no, it rolls over. the -NAO comes mid month after the trough gets booted out of the SW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, pazzo83 said: it's representative of the million people who live in DC/Arlington/Alexandria, with some minor variation. It's not supposed to represent some way out suburb. We had these same arguments in the NYC forum where folks in like way out NW NJ were pissed at Central Park's climate record/obs/whatever. Well ok, it's the climate site for NYC not your random suburb. Sorry. Central Park is not in a bad spot. Better than jfk. Not sure why people always complain about Central Park. The nyc equivalent of Dca would be 20 miles south of jfk in the ocean and it would never capture close events that snowed in the city. The snow mean would go down dramatically. At DCA every marginal event is missed even though you could have a mostly region wide snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, pazzo83 said: The main issue with DCA is being right on the river - but that can keep it a degree or two cooler than the rest of the city just as much as it might keep it warmer. The optimal site is probably like the White House or some place in Dupont/Columbia Heights. The river has frozen and the outcome the same. It so rare that it’s hard to provide data. camp Springs Andrew’s is 10 miles east of DC and in a similar setting and DCA is 25 and Camp Springs 15. That’s an artificial restraint on DCA ability to radiate. Winds homogenize things so the issue is when winds are light what is capping radiation? I agree it’s not comparable to IAD but its close to BWI and should not be 7-12 degrees milder in the repeated current circumstances that it is. some of our DC observers location may also have their thermometers totally surrounded by buildings, roads etc . DCA problems are strange considering it is NOT surrounded by extensive development on All sides Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
66degreesnorth Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 hours ago, pazzo83 said: The main issue with DCA is being right on the river - but that can keep it a degree or two cooler than the rest of the city just as much as it might keep it warmer. The optimal site is probably like the White House or some place in Dupont/Columbia Heights. Longtime lurker - I live in Chevy Chase DC, fairly close to the DC's highest point, and I've noticed that a blend of BWI/IAD/Tracker/BobChill's yard is always much better approximation for the actual snow we get than DCA. While DCA may be representative of people living in capital hill, it's not a good location for large chunks of the District itself, let alone the inner burbs in Montgomery and Fairfax county. Back to lurking ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 5 minutes ago, 66degreesnorth said: Longtime lurker - I live in Chevy Chase DC, fairly close to the DC's highest point, and I've noticed that a blend of BWI/IAD/Tracker/BobChill's yard is always much better approximation for the actual snow we get than DCA. While DCA may be representative of people living in capital hill, it's not a good location for large chunks of the District itself, let alone the inner burbs in Montgomery and Fairfax county. Back to lurking ... I lived in the Capitol Hill neighborhood in DC for several years in the early 2000s before moving to southern MoCo. I can't say offhand whether the temperatures were much different there compared to DCA; I'd guess not all that much. But in the time I was in that location I know the snow amounts I received were consistently higher than what came out of DCA. Anytime I saw reports from a snow event, those in the District proper likewise tended to be higher; that still is the case (e.g., during the 2016 blizzard I recall seeing several 20"+ reports from the District even as DCA recorded "only" 17.8") I actually found the snow reports from the National Arboretum to be a reasonable compromise amount for DC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I saw pages commenting on the EURO extended control snow maps, here is the latest....WB 9 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I saw pages on the EURO extended control snow maps, here is the latest....WB Meh, need those 40”+ amounts further south 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 18 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: I lived in the Capitol Hill neighborhood in DC for several years in the early 2000s before moving to southern MoCo. I can't say offhand whether the temperatures were much different there compared to DCA; I'd guess not all that much. But in the time I was in that location I know the snow amounts I received were consistently higher than what came out of DCA. Anytime I saw reports from a snow event, those in the District proper likewise tended to be higher; that still is the case (e.g., during the 2016 blizzard I recall seeing several 20"+ reports from the District even as DCA recorded "only" 17.8") I actually found the snow reports from the National Arboretum to be a reasonable compromise amount for DC proper. I measured 24 inches in petworth during 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I saw pages on the EURO extended control snow maps, here is the latest....WB Tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Meh, need those 40”+ amounts further southPsu can breathe again 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 WB latest EURO weeklies 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I'm not well-versed enough to know just how good a look is. I mean...I know when something looks good, but just how much better can the one in WW's post above get? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, mattie g said: I'm not well-versed enough to know just how good a look is. I mean...I know when something looks good, but just how much better can the one in WW's post above get? I’d like to see lower heights near NF and not a WAR if you want to be super ambitious. But overall it’s a great look for a 1 month period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 42 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I saw pages commenting on the EURO extended control snow maps, here is the latest....WB What's the mean look like? Still displaced to the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 43 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Meh, need those 40”+ amounts further south Axis of heavy snow too far north, toss it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 9 minutes ago, Chris78 said: What's the mean look like? Still displaced to the north? WB latest EPS extended snow mean 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 6 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: The river has frozen and the outcome the same. It so rare that it’s hard to provide data. camp Springs Andrew’s is 10 miles east of DC and in a similar setting and DCA is 25 and Camp Springs 15. That’s an artificial restraint on DCA ability to radiate. Winds homogenize things so the issue is when winds are light what is capping radiation? I agree it’s not comparable to IAD but its close to BWI and should not be 7-12 degrees milder in the repeated current circumstances that it is. some of our DC observers location may also have their thermometers totally surrounded by buildings, roads etc . DCA problems are strange considering it is NOT surrounded by extensive development on All sides Not to make an example out of this post, but in my experience the frustrations people have about DCA come from having a pretty significant misunderstanding of the environment there, both man made and natural. I spent 10 summers teaching sailing at the marina off the parkway south of the airport and know it well. Downtown DC, Bolling AFB, the Naval Research Lab, DCA, and oldtown Alexandria all sit in the Potomac's river valley. It's a big bowl thats 75% urban basically at sea level. That's quite a bit different from the environment at BWI (150') or Camp Springs (270'), both of which are on relative high points within their local environment. It's a large part of the reason DCA radiates so poorly. Portions of the sky that are in view at either of those other two airports are replaced with city skyline and the hills across the river in SE, all of which are radiating heat back towards the airport. You really need to have spent some time on that part of the river or in East Potomac Park to get a feel for how low it is down there. EDIT: adding a map for clarity. red line is roughly 50ft 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 55 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I saw pages commenting on the EURO extended control snow maps, here is the latest....WB Still too far north. But closer. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 15 minutes ago, Chris78 said: What's the mean look like? Still displaced to the north? Yesterday and today’s looks much better but still a little north of what I want to see. Before some have a fit, there is plenty of time to see it get there but if you go back to periods when we were about to get crushed, 2010, 2014, 2015, 2016, and even some where it didn’t work out but it could have like 2018 and 2019…what you saw was a snow mean where snow actually decreased as you got north of the PA line! That’s when you start licking your chops! When I’m worried about the north fringe! There is time to get to that. It’s still far far out. And it’s adjusting towards that the last few days but not there yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 22 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB latest EPS extended snow mean Better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Better! So that's below climo... Sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, peribonca said: So that's below climo... Sweet Heading in the right direction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Look y’all. Don’t settle. Seriously. Yes wanting to see those 50” totals over us is greedy. But do you realize what pattern the eps and gefs are showing? This is a once every 20 years type thing. This is the time to be greedy. There are 2 perfect match Feb/March nino analogs to that look. 2010 and 1958. Now is not the time to settle. It’s all chips in time. 14 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, peribonca said: So that's below climo... Sweet I'll take the control and call it a winter on March 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Look y’all. Don’t settle. Seriously. Yes wanting to see those 50” totals over us is greedy. But do you realize what pattern the eps and gefs are showing? This is a once every 20 years type thing. This is the time to be greedy. There are 2 perfect match Feb/March nino analogs to that look. 2010 and 1958. Now is not the time to settle. It’s all chips in time. Does that translate to 7" at DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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