psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 48 minutes ago, Ji said: oh geez.....maybe it wont be as bad as it seems. Winters after a moderate to strong El Nino have not been awful for the most part The last two nina's following a strong nino were awful so I dunno, I expect next year to be pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 i would say 2010-11 was pretty good. we got a pretty crazy snowstorm rates wise in january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The last two nina's following a strong nino were awful so I dunno, I expect next year to be pretty bad. Agreed. That map Ji posted looks like 2022-23. I wasn’t joking about planning a trip out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 7 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: i would say 2010-11 was pretty good. we got a pretty crazy snowstorm rates wise in january Yeah, and that storm was so close to being even better. Just slightly too warm at the start. Places northeast of us did much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 10 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Agreed. That map Ji posted looks like 2022-23. I wasn’t joking about planning a trip out west. No way to know the exact character of the ENSO event or how the winter will play out. Get a few weeks where the Aleutian ridge morphs into a -EPO and we might have a January 2022 type period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 3 hours ago, Fozz said: DCA is not representative of this region and should not be used to generalize the winter climo of the whole area. It has good data but it’s a very warm spot at zero elevation on a river in the center of a heat island. it's representative of the million people who live in DC/Arlington/Alexandria, with some minor variation. It's not supposed to represent some way out suburb. We had these same arguments in the NYC forum where folks in like way out NW NJ were pissed at Central Park's climate record/obs/whatever. Well ok, it's the climate site for NYC not your random suburb. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 3 hours ago, stormtracker said: DCA is the be all end all, not up for discussion. I hate where I live. hey man it's not so bad - you don't need a car here, we have great restaurants, and the civic institutions are unparalleled. Yeah, it's weak on the snow front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 17 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: i would say 2010-11 was pretty good. we got a pretty crazy snowstorm rates wise in january then 95-96 after 94-95.....2003-04 after 2002-03.... 73-74 wasnt awful..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: DCA is probably not even representative of most of DC i live in the highest part of DC and we are usually within one or two degrees, even at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 1 minute ago, pazzo83 said: it's representative of the million people who live in DC/Arlington/Alexandria, with some minor variation. It's not supposed to represent some way out suburb. We had these same arguments in the NYC forum where folks in like way out NW NJ were pissed at Central Park's climate record/obs/whatever. Well ok, it's the climate site for NYC not your random suburb. Sorry. Yes it is representative of most people who live inside the beltway, though even there DCA seems to be on the lower end of the range. But that’s very different from representing the entire DC/Baltimore metro area. Especially when even people east of the fall line say that it doesn’t reflect their winter climate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 The main issue with DCA is being right on the river - but that can keep it a degree or two cooler than the rest of the city just as much as it might keep it warmer. The optimal site is probably like the White House or some place in Dupont/Columbia Heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 hey man it's not so bad - you don't need a car here, we have great restaurants, and the civic institutions are unparalleled. Yeah, it's weak on the snow front.I think I’m doing DC wrong. Maybe it’s cause I grew up in Arlington, but I’m counting down the days til it makes sense for me to move back into Arlington Anyway the euro is out to hour 60. Looks like rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 1 minute ago, Fozz said: Yes it is representative of most people who live inside the beltway, though even there DCA seems to be on the lower end of the range. But that’s very different from representing the entire DC/Baltimore metro area. Especially when even people east of the fall line say that it doesn’t reflect their winter climate. Well I mean you shouldn't use it for that. Would we use Central Park to describe the climate of someone living in Orange County NY or something? No - it's the climate site for the city. But since these sites tend to have the longest/most uninterrupted/verified climate record, they are the ones mot often cited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 6 minutes ago, Ji said: then 95-96 after 94-95.....2003-04 after 2002-03.... 73-74 wasnt awful..... How did 2016-17 end up so atrocious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 1 minute ago, Fozz said: How did 2016-17 end up so atrocious? Pretty sure it was a La Nada. Those are almost always bad for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: How did 2016-17 end up so atrocious? maybe cause 2015-2016 was a super nino? 1983-1984 was almost 23 inches at Dulles. double digit December/February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 12z EURO actually flips folks to a bit of snow (well… probably a mix) Sunday afternoon/night 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: Snow TV on the GFS Sun night/Monday. Sold! How might this affect Lamar's legacy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2024 Author Share Posted January 25, 2024 13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 12z EURO actually flips folks to a bit of snow (well… probably a mix) Sunday afternoon/night Start a thread. I’m giving others a shot but if I have to … lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 Start a thread. I’m giving others a shot but if I have to … lolall you chief - I’ll start the second thread that’ll bring the storm back from the brink… if it’s not already there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 34 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: i live in the highest part of DC and we are usually within one or two degrees, even at night. Your measuring location as well may have issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 25 minutes ago, Fozz said: How did 2016-17 end up so atrocious? I chased an early Jan beach blizzard at Rehoboth in 2017. Got 5-6" in my yard from that storm, and there was a couple other smaller events. Wasn't awful, at least over here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: How might this affect Lamar's legacy? If Reid keeps him under 50 for rushing, they are in trouble 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 This looks really good... This is my "perfect pattern" for cold, with a +PNA. All 3 features are there, I like the way it's building a High pressure in the southern NAO region on the ensemble mean. Let's see if it holds going forward. https://ibb.co/vxr6JJq That northern AK +anomaly really correlates with cold at like 0.5, and doesn't depress precip. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Need to confirm with @Stormchaserchuck1....because we just can't know. I know that since I moved north of Baltimore, it has snowed 12/22 April's here. I don't think March patterns have been great.. and I would bet against a cold March this year with negative anomalies building in the ENSO subsurface, but the +pna really picked up this Winter when we went negative in the subsurface (counter-intuitive) so we'll see how it evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 Yeah the Euro - as depicted - would probably be almost 12 hours of White Rain in the city, changing from a rain snow mix around 9pm then continuing into the morning with zero accumulation. Probably over 0.3" of QPF in and around the city with a bit more NW of the city where maybe rates overcome 34F at the surface. I'd take this as a best case! And I'd wager about 2" on my elevated (20 feet high) metal deck! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2024 Author Share Posted January 25, 2024 32 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: all you chief - I’ll start the second thread that’ll bring the storm back from the brink… if it’s not already there That would work for me. I just was hoping someone else would start it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 25, 2024 Share Posted January 25, 2024 this is what happens if that mid-week clipper bombs out, btw if it wraps up, you can slip a vort under the block with a 50/50 in place 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2024 Author Share Posted January 25, 2024 If we had any real board leadership @stormtracker would have started it already. But, alas .. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2024 Author Share Posted January 25, 2024 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: this is what happens if that mid-week clipper bombs out, btw if it wraps up, you can slip a vort under the block with a 50/50 in place That was what I was thinking when I made that post earlier but the gfs fizzled. And then you responded about wave breaking and I thought to myself, I don’t know what he’s talking about so I showed myself out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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