jayyy Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Hagerstown was much better, not exactly sure why you moved. Matt would have moved to Hagerstown. Could be because the amount of snow he gets isn’t the only determining factor in his life decisions. Just a hunch lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I haven't given up on my 40" prediction. I had the chance to back down when everyone was doing their mid year evaluations and I decided to let it ride. Would I prefer we had scored maybe another 5-10" by now, of course, but I think we still are in the game to finish big. If my life depended on it I would say we probably fall just short of that, but I think we at least make a run at it. All it would take it one BIG hit for us to get there imo. I definitely give you credit for sticking to your prediction. You have played both sides of the coin and still have held solid. So let’s get that HECS and hit the mark! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 18 minutes ago, IronTy said: Then who's data has been deemed acceptable for the subforum - can you provide it? There is no one spot that is representative of the whole region. People just have to know where they live. Obviously the people who live in places like Winchester or Leesburg can have higher expectations in March than places further southeast. UHI locations become especially problematic during the day in March. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: DCA is probably not even representative of most of DC Definitely not representative of NW DC, but it's fairly accurate for downtown. I lived in Adams Morgan/Woodley Park for 5 years which is only ~2 miles from the WH, and ~175' in extra elevation. I can remember multiple events where downtown was like 90% white rain and north of Florida Ave had a couple inches of accumulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, TSG said: Definitely not representative of NW DC, but it's fairly accurate for downtown. I lived in Adams Morgan/Woodley Park for 5 years which is only ~2 miles from the WH, and ~175' in extra elevation. I can remember multiple events where downtown was like 90% white rain and north of Florida Ave had a couple inches of accumulation. The zoo would be a good spot to represent the top half of DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: The zoo would be a good spot to represent the top half of DC. they should measure from Fort Reno Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: DCA is probably not even representative of most of DC This man is correct. And it's annoying. We've always been insistent on this. Shit, DCA doesn't even represent the area of NOVA that it's in. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 If the 12z GFS crushes us like the 0z did, I don't care if not one other model or ensemble shows it. I'm going on pure, raw emotion and wishcasting alone. You mets stop with your science and common sense. We're trying to have fun around here and yall are like the parents who come home earlier to discover a raging party. @WinterWxLuvr, thread? 8 4 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 36 minutes ago, stormtracker said: In all seriousness, the Sunday thing was a mirage. GFS own ensembles are laughing at it. I think we're tracking again in 10 days. We'll have the championship game and Super Bowl to distract us till then. We can make it. fwiw, I was pretty proud of the board for not biting on it in any respect in terms of anticipation etc. Small victory for people keeping their inner snow child in check...not that we won't keep an eye on the next set of runs of course... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, North Balti Zen said: fwiw, I was pretty proud of the board for not biting on it in any respect in terms of anticipation etc. Small victory for people keeping their inner snow child in check... Maybe I should have waited to post that last post above yours. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Maybe I should have waited to post that last post above yours. Nah - we are saying the same thing - I think it's a sign of growth that people have been realistic at range - I think your discussion for days has been on point and appropriately framed (and solution and wxluvr). Plenty of people will still tune into today's 12z b/c it's not a zero chance. I genuinely think your guidance of the long range discussion this year when we have had discernable threats has been really excellent fwiw. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, North Balti Zen said: Nah - we are saying the same thing - I think it's a sign of growth that people have been realistic at range - I think your discussion for days has been on point and appropriately framed (and solution and wxluvr). Plenty of people will still tune into today's 12z b/c it's not a zero chance. I genuinely think your guidance of the discussion this year has been really excellent fwiw. Yeah, of course. I'm mostly joking. Sunday is a dead ratter, but of course I'm going to check it out. Like I said earlier, we probably have another 10 or so days before we can seriously track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Heck, given the notes on how awful this immediate pattern is - having had something to even keep an eye on for a few days has been a pleasant surprise. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, CAPE said: @brooklynwx99 Mint. it really feels like we've been missing the split flow pattern for all of this winter. looks amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Snow TV on the GFS Sun night/Monday. Sold! 12 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Snow TV on the GFS Sun night/Monday. Sold! If we actually get enough flakes for legit snow TV status during the heart of the warm hades horror winter lull ("WHHWL") I am gonna go ahead and take that as a good sign for prosperity when thing break back our way starting around Feb. 8... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 5 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB Day 11 GFS.... parade of storms with temps cooling ahead of schedule.... buckle up!!!!! Whether it’s in advance, or in situ., DC always does better with earlier rather than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Gfs has the coastal transfer farther north and hence that backend precipitation farther north also. eta…GGEM shifted north also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: DCA is probably not even representative of most of DC DCA matches perfectly with downtown DC where roads, sidewalks, buildings abound and no open grassy areas. However DCA IS surrounded by open space and parkland to north east and south. A lightly traveled parkway is slightly to the west. Nearby to the west is developed like downtown DC. And the facility itself. It’s also an FAA facility so their forte is not meteorologic records but rather in the moment plane safety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Gfs has the coastal transfer farther north and hence that backend precipitation farther north also. eta…GGEM shifted north also. Seems inevitable. Now let's see if the Euro does the opposite! LOL! I do not think it will but would be fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 50 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If the 12z GFS crushes us like the 0z did, I don't care if not one other model or ensemble shows it. I'm going on pure, raw emotion and wishcasting alone. You mets stop with your science and common sense. We're trying to have fun around here and yall are like the parents who come home earlier to discover a raging party. @WinterWxLuvr, thread? Yes. Start it. It’s an event where the possibility of snow, no matter how slight, is there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 hours ago, IronTy said: There has been a number of posts about how we're still in the game well into March in this thread. So I went and looked at historical snow totals at DCA by month. According the the data I saw, we've only gotten double-digit snow totals for the entire month of March twice in recent eras. Once I think was 2014, and before that it was either was like 1959 or 1969 or somewhere there about. So I don't get where the March optimism comes from. Eta, went and found the data again, it was 1960. Depends on where. 1st week of March 1999 we had over 10 “ in Fairfax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 55 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If the 12z GFS crushes us like the 0z did, I don't care if not one other model or ensemble shows it. I'm going on pure, raw emotion and wishcasting alone. You mets stop with your science and common sense. We're trying to have fun around here and yall are like the parents who come home earlier to discover a raging party. @WinterWxLuvr, thread? The other models don’t matter. They are too inconsistent. The euro is the one that will guid my thinking here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 Be curious to see what you the gfs does with the plains storm at 216. Storm right behind it. Can the first drag in the cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Be curious to see what you the gfs does with the plains storm at 216. Storm right behind it. Can the first drag in the cold? talk about wave breaking. god damn 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Right. I live on the northwest side of DC in suburban MD, but we've had some good March events over the years. Not "double digits" for the month outside of 2014, but solid events in the early to middle part of the month, and even some halfway decent ones later in March (twice it snowed on my birthday, March 25, like 3-4"!). Just off the top of my head, the good events I recall occurring in this area in March were 2009 (I actually lived in DC proper at that time), 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2022. That's a lot of March events, in my opinion, even if not huge. 47 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Snow TV on the GFS Sun night/Monday. Sold! Preach! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Cansips is on board. From Feb 2023 lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, Ji said: Cansips is on board. From Feb 2023 lol Best model ever. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, CAPE said: Best model ever. oh geez.....maybe it wont be as bad as it seems. Winters after a moderate to strong El Nino have not been awful for the most part 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Gfs has the coastal transfer farther north and hence that backend precipitation farther north also. eta…GGEM shifted north also. Next stop! New England! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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