WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 It’s gonna snow. Probably in about 4 days. Someone earlier mentioned the trend of storms this year to trend south. They’ve also been trending wetter lately. I think we are gonna end happy this year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Odds of us hitting the 40”-50” predicted totals by years end with where we are today and the expected upcoming golden pattern? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: Lots of action in the southern stream on that run. And yeah it looks like the NAO will become more negative towards mid month. @brooklynwx99 Mint. 17 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Webb swapping flame emojis for weenie emojis Call me crazy but the past 3-4 years it seems like we get that -NAO, favorable cold conditions for winter weather toward April/May and posters in here have said 'too bad we didn't have this pattern in winter'... that almost seems to be evolving sooner each year and now this year it is happening a little earlier yet which is opening the door for a snowy pattern. Could this continue to evolve sooner each year? Kinda interesting to me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 5 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Odds of us hitting the 40”-50” predicted totals by years end with where we are today and the expected upcoming golden pattern? I've got about 10" here inside the beltway thus far. 18" = average, I'd be happy. 25" = very, very good. 30" + great. more than 35"... stellar, winter to remember. If the pattern shakes out as intended, I think my 25" goal is possible for my area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 8 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Odds of us hitting the 40”-50” predicted totals by years end with where we are today and the expected upcoming golden pattern? There has been a number of posts about how we're still in the game well into March in this thread. So I went and looked at historical snow totals at DCA by month. According the the data I saw, we've only gotten double-digit snow totals for the entire month of March twice in recent eras. Once I think was 2014, and before that it was either was like 1959 or 1969 or somewhere there about. So I don't get where the March optimism comes from. Eta, went and found the data again, it was 1960. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 14 minutes ago, IronTy said: There has been a number of posts about how we're still in the game well into March in this thread. So I went and looked at historical snow totals at DCA by month. According the the data I saw, we've only gotten double-digit snow totals for the entire month of March twice in recent eras. Once I think was 2014, and before that it was either was like 1959 or 1969 or somewhere there about. So I don't get where the March optimism comes from. The March optimism comes from the longwave pattern that is projected all the way until at least mid-March. DCA averages around 12” for the whole season, so it will really take a lot to get nearly a whole season worth of snow in just the last 2-3 weeks of it being realistically possible to snow. Also, places north and west of DCA do a lot better in March than DCA does. IAD has had many more double digit March totals than DCA since 1960. If you’re in the coastal plain then you might need to temper your March expectations but even then the first half of the month can still work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, IronTy said: There has been a number of posts about how we're still in the game well into March in this thread. So I went and looked at historical snow totals at DCA by month. According the the data I saw, we've only gotten double-digit snow totals for the entire month of March twice in recent eras. Once I think was 2014, and before that it was either was like 1959 or 1969 or somewhere there about. So I don't get where the March optimism comes from. Eta, went and found the data again, it was 1960. March certainly can be a much, much colder and stormier version of December. Shorter wavelenghts, increased odds of late season HL and NAO blocking. I experienced a few wicked March snow events here in the last 15 years. March 2018 I believe was the retro - NAO which lead to 7 F, snowfall and blowing snow, and multiple school clsoings. And, there are other examples too. If things work out as portrayed by the weeklies a version of 2018 could happen. Will be fun to observe the pattern to see what it brings. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 9 minutes ago, IronTy said: There has been a number of posts about how we're still in the game well into March in this thread. So I went and looked at historical snow totals at DCA by month. According the the data I saw, we've only gotten double-digit snow totals for the entire month of March twice in recent eras. Once I think was 2014, and before that it was either was like 1959 or 1969 or somewhere there about. So I don't get where the March optimism comes from. Eta, went and found the data again, it was 1960. Well, February counts also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Well, February counts also It really counts around here….Primetime 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 18 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Odds of us hitting the 40”-50” predicted totals by years end with where we are today and the expected upcoming golden pattern? I haven't given up on my 40" prediction. I had the chance to back down when everyone was doing their mid year evaluations and I decided to let it ride. Would I prefer we had scored maybe another 5-10" by now, of course, but I think we still are in the game to finish big. If my life depended on it I would say we probably fall just short of that, but I think we at least make a run at it. All it would take it one BIG hit for us to get there imo. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 12 minutes ago, IronTy said: There has been a number of posts about how we're still in the game well into March in this thread. So I went and looked at historical snow totals at DCA by month. According the the data I saw, we've only gotten double-digit snow totals for the entire month of March twice in recent eras. Once I think was 2014, and before that it was either was like 1959 or 1969 or somewhere there about. So I don't get where the March optimism comes from. Eta, went and found the data again, it was 1960. All I personally gathered from that is that it can snow just has hard today as it did 60 years ago. If we get the right pattern and conditions, it can happen. We have been lacking in the pattern and conditions department for a few years for March snow. Maybe it'll happen this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 16 minutes ago, IronTy said: There has been a number of posts about how we're still in the game well into March in this thread. So I went and looked at historical snow totals at DCA by month. According the the data I saw, we've only gotten double-digit snow totals for the entire month of March twice in recent eras. Once I think was 2014, and before that it was either was like 1959 or 1969 or somewhere there about. So I don't get where the March optimism comes from. Eta, went and found the data again, it was 1960. Not everyone lives in DC. DCA only averages 13" for the whole winter. People know their climo. Would I be expecting some 15" March if I lived near DCA, nope. But they could score 5" and that is a big deal for a place that averages 13" for the whole winter. Places west of the fall line can more easily get a 10"+ March. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not everyone lives in DC. DCA only averages 13" for the whole winter. People know their climo. Would I be expecting some 15" March if I lived near DCA, nope. But they could score 5" and that is a big deal for a place that averages 13" for the whole winter. Places west of the fall line can more easily get a 10"+ March. I’m east of the fall line and got around 7” in that snowstorm on the 2nd day of spring in 2018. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I’m east of the fall line and got around 7” in that snowstorm on the 2nd day of spring in 2018. DCA is a minimum even for that region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 31 minutes ago, Wxdood said: Call me crazy but the past 3-4 years it seems like we get that -NAO, favorable cold conditions for winter weather toward April/May and posters in here have said 'too bad we didn't have this pattern in winter'... that almost seems to be evolving sooner each year and now this year it is happening a little earlier yet which is opening the door for a snowy pattern. Could this continue to evolve sooner each year? Kinda interesting to me. Need to confirm with @Stormchaserchuck1....because we just can't know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not everyone lives in DC. DCA only averages 13" for the whole winter. People know their climo. Would I be expecting some 15" March if I lived near DCA, nope. But they could score 5" and that is a big deal for a place that averages 13" for the whole winter. Places west of the fall line can more easily get a 10"+ March. Right. I live on the northwest side of DC in suburban MD, but we've had some good March events over the years. Not "double digits" for the month outside of 2014, but solid events in the early to middle part of the month, and even some halfway decent ones later in March (twice it snowed on my birthday, March 25, like 3-4"!). Just off the top of my head, the good events I recall occurring in this area in March were 2009 (I actually lived in DC proper at that time), 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2022. That's a lot of March events, in my opinion, even if not huge. At least a couple of those followed on the heels of a solid and wintry February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 My son was born in that snowstorm in on March 3rd 2014! We can definitely get some big snows in March! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not everyone lives in DC. DCA only averages 13" for the whole winter. People know their climo. Would I be expecting some 15" March if I lived near DCA, nope. But they could score 5" and that is a big deal for a place that averages 13" for the whole winter. Places west of the fall line can more easily get a 10"+ March. I mean yeah, no duh areas north and west get more snow and later. But DC is the largest city central to this subforum and has good historical data so that's what I look at. If I'm looking for a 5" snow then ok, March is in the game...but a MECS or HECs...historically the odds are basically zilch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, IronTy said: I mean yeah, no duh areas north and west get more snow and later. But DC is the largest city central to this subforum and has good historical data so that's what I look at. If I'm looking for a 5" snow then ok, March is in the game...but a MECS or HECs...historically the odds are basically zilch. DCA is not representative of this region and should not be used to generalize the winter climo of the whole area. It has good data but it’s a very warm spot at zero elevation on a river in the center of a heat island. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 5 minutes ago, Fozz said: DCA is not representative of this region and should not be used to generalize the winter climo of the whole area. It has good data but it’s a very warm spot at zero elevation on a river in the center of a heat island. Then who's data has been deemed acceptable for the subforum - can you provide it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 58 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s gonna snow. Probably in about 4 days. Someone earlier mentioned the trend of storms this year to trend south. They’ve also been trending wetter lately. I think we are gonna end happy this year. In all seriousness, the Sunday thing was a mirage. GFS own ensembles are laughing at it. I think we're tracking again in 10 days. We'll have the championship game and Super Bowl to distract us till then. We can make it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not everyone lives in DC. DCA only averages 13" for the whole winter. People know their climo. Would I be expecting some 15" March if I lived near DCA, nope. But they could score 5" and that is a big deal for a place that averages 13" for the whole winter. Places west of the fall line can more easily get a 10"+ March. DCA is the be all end all, not up for discussion. I hate where I live. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, Fozz said: DCA is not representative of this region and should not be used to generalize the winter climo of the whole area. It has good data but it’s a very warm spot at zero elevation on a river in the center of a heat island. Good point. We have a very diverse climate in this sub. The climate in Harrisonburg, Winchester, Martinsburg over to about Baltimore north is very different from the region south and east of that. Not even close really. I see posts all the time talking about a string of bad winters. Going back just a few years, 2018-19, 2020-21, 2021-2022 were good winters here. 2019-2020 and last year were bad. I’ll take 60% and be just fine. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 5 minutes ago, Fozz said: DCA is not representative of this region and should not be used to generalize the winter climo of the whole area. It has good data but it’s a very warm spot at zero elevation on a river in the center of a heat island. Yep, when I predicted 20-40” for our sub, I gave DCA a “siting penalty” of -30% which comes to roughly 14-28”. Too bad 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, IronTy said: Then who's data has been deemed acceptable for the subforum - can you provide it? I think BWI and even IAD are much more representative of the region. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: In all seriousness, the Sunday thing was a mirage. GFS own ensembles are laughing at it. I think we're tracking again in 10 days. We'll have the championship game and Super Bowl to distract us till then. We can make it. Not yet. Long way to go. Let’s give it a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: DCA is the be all end all, not up for discussion. I hate where I live. Hagerstown was much better, not exactly sure why you moved. Matt would have moved to Hagerstown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 7 minutes ago, Fozz said: DCA is not representative of this region and should not be used to generalize the winter climo of the whole area. It has good data but it’s a very warm spot at zero elevation on a river in the center of a heat island. Yeah and just saying 'east of the Fall line' doesn't work either. My yard is well east of the Fall line and there have been many enjoyable winter storms in March since I have lived here. Not sure about double digit snow events, but who cares especially in March. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 16 minutes ago, Fozz said: DCA is not representative of this region and should not be used to generalize the winter climo of the whole area. It has good data but it’s a very warm spot at zero elevation on a river in the center of a heat island. DCA is probably not even representative of most of DC 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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