CAPE Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I echo someone else who asked this earlier: What did those snow means show for last week before it happened? Snow means suck. They are for the lazy. Do the analysis upstairs or watch Bob fucking Turk. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Snow means suck. They are for the lazy. Do the analysis upstairs or watch Bob fucking Turk.Snow means will never account for the last second tick ups we had the last 2 storms 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, Ji said: Snow means will never account for the last second tick ups we had the last 2 storms Eh, it's yet another example of the craving for instant gratification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 End of 18z GEFS still following weeklies pretty closely…We take . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 30 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I echo someone else who asked this earlier: What did those snow means show for last week before it happened? They showed some snow but less than we got, but that was because they were two pretty weak insignificant waves in the flow. They both hit us flush and we maxed out and so one small area, US, did well. But in a grand sense they were very insignificant synoptic events that long range guidance will have a hard time seeing well. Longer range guidance does a little better seeing where the general track of major waves might be. 22 minutes ago, Ji said: The best snow maps for this winter was for Jan 6-7. Just sayin Because that was a significant wave, and it took a perfect track, we were just a little too warm when it came down to it, but from distance the runs that thought it would be slightly colder, were indicating what would have happened had it been a few degrees colder leading into that event. That was our one chance at a MECS level snowstorm this winter so far and it failed simply because it was a few degrees too warm. Guidance was right to be indicating potential there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 End of 18z GEFS still following weeklies pretty closely…We take .Shut the blinds and see you on Feb 5 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Because that was a significant wave, and it took a perfect track, we were just a little too warm when it came down to it, but from distance the runs that thought it would be slightly colder, were indicating what would have happened had it been a few degrees colder leading into that event. That was our one chance at a MECS level snowstorm this winter so far and it failed simply because it was a few degrees too warm. Guidance was right to be indicating potential there. I keep thinking about that storm cause it was so wet. Had it been 1 -2 degrees colder we would be sitting at about 25 inches is snow right now heading for probably an epic winter. I degree really destroyed what could of been a severe January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Longer range guidance does a little better seeing where the general track of major waves might be. And when it comes to temperature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 i understand the sentiment at the axis of the best snow means, but to me at 500mb the pattern looks picturesque. this pattern is relentless too, which is something we've been missing for a while. yes, the controls runs have been lackluster and yes the snow means themselves aren't great, but if you dig more into the snow means it's generally split into two camps - very snowy or almost snowless. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: Snow means suck. They are for the lazy. Do the analysis upstairs or watch Bob fucking Turk. But I'm talking about individual members within that mean that also show a perfect pattern but displace the snow north of us. That is a little different. If it was just the mean I wouldn't say anything...the mean can be washed out easily. But I have followed these long range products for years. This is unusual. It's not just a fluke run or two. Its been a consistent theme on the extended control members for like 10 days now to have some absolutely perfect beautiful pattern but the snow is well north anyways. That is odd, that is not something I have observed much. Usually if there is some -3 NAO with a perfect pacific pattern they show a bunch of snow over us. Now...usually theyre wrong and that pattern just never happens or isnt as perfect when time comes...and we fail. But its unusual to see that kind of pattern and the snow to be that far north. I think it's worth noting it at least. I think its wrong, but in the event it isn't its worth going in eyes open about it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, Ji said: I keep thinking about that storm cause it was so wet. Had it been 1 -2 degrees colder we would be sitting at about 25 inches is snow right now heading for probably an epic winter. I degree really destroyed what could of been a severe January I chalked that up to a Niño early Jan being a Niño early Jan, lol I'd like to see how many Niños actually produced in early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I chalked that up to a Niño early Jan being a Niño early Jan, lol I'd like to see how many Niños actually produced in early January.I actually can’t remember an early January Nino mecs lol.Much better chance in a Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Usually if there is some -3 NAO with a perfect pacific pattern they show a bunch of snow over us. Now...usually theyre wrong and that pattern just never happens or isnt as perfect when time comes...and we fail. But its unusual to see that kind of pattern and the snow to be that far north. I think it's worth noting it at least. I think its wrong, but in the event it isn't its worth going in eyes open about it. Maybe the models are better now and they're not wrong anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But I'm talking about individual members within that mean that also show a perfect pattern but displace the snow north of us. That is a little different. If it was just the mean I wouldn't say anything...the mean can be washed out easily. But I have followed these long range products for years. This is unusual. It's not just a fluke run or two. Its been a consistent theme on the extended control members for like 10 days now to have some absolutely perfect beautiful pattern but the snow is well north anyways. That is odd, that is not something I have observed much. Usually if there is some -3 NAO with a perfect pacific pattern they show a bunch of snow over us. Now...usually theyre wrong and that pattern just never happens or isnt as perfect when time comes...and we fail. But its unusual to see that kind of pattern and the snow to be that far north. I think it's worth noting it at least. I think its wrong, but in the event it isn't its worth going in eyes open about it. I was just making a general statement. Everyone can use them at their own discretion. Imo, they are most useful when we have a discrete threat within a few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Maybe the models are better now and they're not wrong anymore.Yea I remember the gfs used to show a blizzard once a day starting in mid October. I miss those days 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, Ji said: Yea I remember the gfs used to show a blizzard once a day starting in mid October. I miss those days Digital blue. Gotta have it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Digital blue. Gotta have it!It’s a drug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: I was just making a general statement. Everyone can use them at their own discretion. Imo, they are most useful when we have a discrete threat within a few days. Last I want to say on this, I did that "upstairs analysis" several times over the last 10 days I've scrolled through the daily plots on the control runs, saw some H5 pass through VA, a 990 low off the delmarva and was like "there is our HECS" then went to the snow maps and was like..."where's the snow". It was up in northern PA, similar to that storm 3 weeks ago. It's also worth noting that the EPS Mean kind of hints at the same thing, with a trough axis to our south indicating a good storm track, but with a snow mean displaced north of us. So while everyone is drooling over the EPS H5, and I am too, I am just trying to put it out there that the EPS is hinting that we might have temp issues despite the perfect pattern. Will we, who knows...but if it goes down that way the guidance did warn us. That's all. 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Last I want to say on this, I did that "upstairs analysis" several times over the last 10 days I've scrolled through the daily plots on the control runs, saw some H5 pass through VA, a 990 low off the delmarva and was like "there is our HECS" then went to the snow maps and was like..."where's the snow". It was up in northern PA, similar to that storm 3 weeks ago. It's also worth noting that the EPS Mean kind of hints at the same thing, with a trough axis to our south indicating a good storm track, but with a snow mean displaced north of us. So while everyone is drooling over the EPS H5, and I am too, I am just trying to put it out there that the EPS is hinting that we might have temp issues despite the perfect pattern. Will we, who knows...but if it goes down that way the guidance did warn us. That's all. Man I hope not...mercy (goes to panic room) That would unfortunately answer "the question". So snow means can predict temperature too? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I heard the 18z eps screws nyc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 We’re not a winter wonderland (by default). Just think about it…dca averages nearly 9” of liquid equivalent every winter. That means roughly 20% of qpf is snow (give or take)…so once every 4-5 storms (or 1 week per month) we should aim for snow. I’m just painting a general/realistic picture of the climate we’ve always had here while records have been kept. I’m actually more annoyed by the clouds this week than the warmup lol. Hopefully we can get back to increased snow chances in a week or two. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Pretty nice pattern loading up on the 384hr 18z GFS ensemble mean. This is the first panel where a High pressure settles over NAO region, and the Pacific looks great https://ibb.co/Gcj8Fpk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 @stormtracker I’m keepIng an eye on it. But it’s going to have extreme boundary thermal issues to start. I don’t think the gfs wonky progression with a weaker disconnected secondary can work. It wouldn’t likely cool the boundary enough for 95. Your better bet is to get the euro solution with a more phased system that stalls and really deepens, only get it to happen 75 miles south of where 12z had it. We saw an adjustment like that last week it’s not impossible. Improbable but not impossible. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I acknowledged I usually don't put much stock in the snowfall products BUT this isn't totally accurate, yes usually they are pretty close to climo but the few times over the years I've seen the extended products look that THAT, they usually did show a mean skewed south into the mid atlantic. The tell tale sign is when the snow mean doesn't really even increase to the north much until you get way into Canada. I saw that back in 2019 for example. It never happened because the extended guidance was wrong about the pattern and that amazing looking Feb 2010 clone pattern just never actually became a reality. There were times in 2014, 2015, and 2016 when the snow means at weeks 3-5 showed a crazy anomaly centered over the mid atlantic also....and guess what we got some big snows eventually each of those years. We just have not had the kind of patterns where the guidance SHOULD be showing much of a positive snow anomaly over us the last 8 years. March 2018 I also think towards late Febuary the extended guidance was showing a mean skewed south with that coming blocking episode. In the end we had 2 storms suppressed and squashed during that window so it was too much blocking maybe. Another point, I have been keeping an eye on the control runs to see what they show to get an idea of what an individual member might look like. This only works when the control matches the mean pattern but most runs it has. There have been several OMG LOOK AT THAT PATTERN runs of the control in the last week...and yet DC had little or no snow from them! That isn't an issue with a mean, that is an individual run that was saying despite a -3stdv block and perfect pacific we were going to see several storms manage to track north enough for us to get mostly rain from the pattern. The other day there seemed to be a few perfect track rainstorms in there judging from the daily SLP plots. Saw a few daily SLP where I was like ok there is our HECS then the snow plots showed nothing until up in PA. I agree it's not something to be overly worried about. But I think its worth mentioning and taking note that the guidance is not aligning the snow output with what you would expect looking at the pattern. 3 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Nobody get mad. PSU knows I like the lovingly troll him from time to time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Nobody get mad. PSU knows I like the lovingly troll him from time to time.Be careful you don’t drive him away. He is one of our best posters 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 19 minutes ago, Ji said: Be careful you don’t drive him away. He is one of our best posters You don't own a mirror, do you? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Last I want to say on this, I did that "upstairs analysis" several times over the last 10 days I've scrolled through the daily plots on the control runs, saw some H5 pass through VA, a 990 low off the delmarva and was like "there is our HECS" then went to the snow maps and was like..."where's the snow". It was up in northern PA, similar to that storm 3 weeks ago. It's also worth noting that the EPS Mean kind of hints at the same thing, with a trough axis to our south indicating a good storm track, but with a snow mean displaced north of us. So while everyone is drooling over the EPS H5, and I am too, I am just trying to put it out there that the EPS is hinting that we might have temp issues despite the perfect pattern. Will we, who knows...but if it goes down that way the guidance did warn us. That's all. temp anomalies are fairly below average for the same time period though. i wouldn't expect extended ensembles to have good thermals in regards to individual events - that is most definitely not what they're mad for and you can't disregard a pattern because of controls runs. i get the concern but really i don't see where this is stemming from 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 19 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: temp anomalies are fairly below average for the same time period though. i wouldn't expect extended ensembles to have good thermals in regards to individual events - that is most definitely not what they're mad for and you can't disregard a pattern because of controls runs. i get the concern but really i don't see where this is stemming from Then that makes even less sense. How are the anoms below normal, perfect looking pattern, yet no snow? And of the things that could make a storm rainy...would snow means pick up on discreet features like that? If this is an error I'm wondering why it's been repeated over 10 days of runs...Doesn't make sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Then that makes even less sense. How are the anoms below normal, perfect looking pattern, yet no snow? And of the things that could make a storm rainy...would snow means pick up on discreet features like that? If this is an error I'm wondering why it's been repeated over 10 days of runs...Doesn't make sense. because extended ensembles aren't made to pick out individual storms & all. they're mostly used to identify general features like precip anomalies, temp anomalies etc and give u a good idea ab the pattern. using them to explain why a pattern is bad bc it doesn't produce snow doesn't rlly make sense imo bc it's not made for that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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