winter_warlock Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: and to think people are punting the rest of the winter. fucking insane gotta suck to be that jaded Punting the rest of winter on January 24th is just plain stupid. Still 2 full months to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: and to think people are punting the rest of the winter. fucking insane gotta suck to be that jaded The party that nailed this is the party who steadfastly maintained from November into December that we should not expect winter weather until mid January. Step forward and identify and receive your congratulations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The party that nailed this is the party who steadfastly maintained from November into December that we should not expect winter weather until mid January. Step forward and identify and receive your congratulations It’s called the models that you think are worthless. They have been all over this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1750268015575232715?s=61&t=jtYSAZghIHxEA6K1a8OFsw Sistine Chapel- there it is 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I mean GFS did it again. I dunno man 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 42 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1750268015575232715?s=61&t=jtYSAZghIHxEA6K1a8OFsw Sistine Chapel- there it is I've been following the weather for a number of years now, how is it I've never heard of the "infamous" Sistine Chapel pattern? Could it possibly be as SEVERE as the past ten days? Smh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 When I began looking at his thread early last Saturday morning, the "experts" were arguing about Pacific Jet Extensions. Somewhat bored with that crap I began perusing the models and ensembles. I discovered a very enticing look on the Euro Ensembles for mid February into March. Somewhat surprised that nobody was talking about it I posted a comment at 9:22 am. The rest is history. That enticing look has persisted and now we are up to March 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: and to think people are punting the rest of the winter. fucking insane gotta suck to be that jaded A-freakin'-men!! You said this a lot more diplomatically than I could! This place sometimes, I swear! 55 minutes ago, Terpeast said: H5 looks great. Near perfect. But what matters is what we have at the surface. How cold does it get, not just when it's dry, but when it's precipitating. Do we get a good high to the north when we get an incoming wave? Where does the r/s line lie? Those details obviously can't be resolved this far out, and I'd be highly skeptical of snow maps at 3 weeks out. Take last week for example - 3 weeks or even 1 week prior, snow maps barely showed an inch and we ended up getting ~10 in one week! I don't remember seeing a snow map like that on the weeklies that far out. If anything, they were further north across PA into SNE, even up until 2 days before the second wave, and then it dunked south at the last possible minute. Agree. I'm very encouraged and excited about what the overall pattern has looked like on the ensembles and longer range extended ensembles. And it's shown up for some time now, apparently not being kicked farther out in time. At this point, all you can do is look at the overall flow and assess that, really. Yeah, in the end as we get into that time frame, all that matters is what happens with the sensible weather. It may end up being epic or really good, or we could get bad luck and get screwed...I'm not going to let that worry me at this point. We can evaluate that as it arrives, and I don't really think we'll end up with an anemic remainder of this winter. While I get some concern or confusion over why a snow map would appear to be incongruous with the advertised 500-mb flow, I'm not sure if we should really much care what a snow map 2+ weeks out shows. How many times have we looked at long range ensembles snow maps or Euro weekly snows that pounded us with a ton of snow over a 3 week period, yet it never came about? Of course at the time most people laughed off those clown maps, so why should we now take the "opposite" with any less of a grain of salt? On a side-note, while the discussion of climo and the implications of how well (or not well) we do this winter plays into that is interesting and worthwhile, I really wish we could mostly focus on the here and now. Just deal with this winter for this winter's sake, rather than thinking "if we don't get 30-40 inches in DC at a time we should do really well with a Nino...then we're doomed for X number of subsequent years and our climo will suck even worse donkey balls because we're headed into a Nina starting next year!!!" Can we just get through this season first and try to enjoy what we get? So if we by chance get a decent HECS storm or a couple of really good MECS-level events, etc., but don't get a "blowout win" (even if we get a "win" all the same) on the total snowfall in the end, are we going to pull our hair out that we failed and are doomed? I sure hope not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 24 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I mean GFS did it again. I dunno man Only 120hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, Prestige Worldwide said: https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1750268015575232715?s=61&t=jtYSAZghIHxEA6K1a8OFsw Sistine Chapel- there it is But I've seen the Sistine Chapel on the head of a pin!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Only 120hrs out The GFS is the only one tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Only 120hrs out I think we might be the only ones into this. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Late Sunday and Sunday night could be interesting according to the 18z GFS. Some of the blue has been pushed south and southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The GFS is the only one tho Well, if you want to go all "Highlander", there can be only one! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The GFS is the only one tho It's kind of all over the place with the tiny little jackpots moving around from run to run. The GEFS is pretty steadfast that this is a north of here event for frozen, like the other 2 ensembles. This has the feel of maybe some snow tv for our region late Sunday night/Monday morning. I'm cool with that. Better things lie ahead. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Coming fresh off two events that looked lost only days before, to reel in even snow tv from this would be nice. Would make 3 consecutive events coming our way late despite some difficulties, which is nice to see. Not a weenie friendly event but hey, if we catch some flakes and a dusting right in the middle of the supposed DOOOOOOOM warmth then I think we're doing alright! A longer shot here in Baltimore than elsewhere but still worth keeping an eye on if you maintain the right level of emotional investment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 This h5 look has KU potential. Surface depiction has LP in the gulf states moving northeastward along the NC coast. 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 This h5 look has KU potential. Surface depiction has LP in the gulf states moving northeastward along the NC coast.Our 21st straight attempt at pd3 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Ji said: Our 21st straight attempt at pd3 WDI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, stormy said: Late Sunday and Sunday night could be interesting according to the 18z GFS. Some of the blue has been pushed south and southwest. How far south is Happy Hour GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I’m pretty sure it’s coming. My only concern is despite a height pattern that says the snow axis should be centered south of 40* the ens mean continues to have the snow focused pretty far north. Today’s euro control is another good example also. Look at the 30 day mean h5 and you think “omg Raleigh to DC must be getting smoked” but then look at the snow and it’s mostly all NW of DC centered central PA up into New England again. This isn’t a one run fluke it’s been consistent every run lately. @Terpeast curious your take. Usually I disregard snow output at range completely but given everything lately and how much we have riding on this upcoming pattern I’ll be honest it has me at least mildly perplexed. i get your point but any weeklies map i've seen always looks like the climo average for the time period without fail. it makes sense, run 100 simulations of the same pattern and you'll end up with a climo average with tweaks in either direction based off the favorability of the pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 18 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: i get your point but any weeklies map i've seen always looks like the climo average for the time period without fail. it makes sense, run 100 simulations of the same pattern and you'll end up with a climo average with tweaks in either direction based off the favorability of the pattern I acknowledged I usually don't put much stock in the snowfall products BUT this isn't totally accurate, yes usually they are pretty close to climo but the few times over the years I've seen the extended products look that THAT, they usually did show a mean skewed south into the mid atlantic. The tell tale sign is when the snow mean doesn't really even increase to the north much until you get way into Canada. I saw that back in 2019 for example. It never happened because the extended guidance was wrong about the pattern and that amazing looking Feb 2010 clone pattern just never actually became a reality. There were times in 2014, 2015, and 2016 when the snow means at weeks 3-5 showed a crazy anomaly centered over the mid atlantic also....and guess what we got some big snows eventually each of those years. We just have not had the kind of patterns where the guidance SHOULD be showing much of a positive snow anomaly over us the last 8 years. March 2018 I also think towards late Febuary the extended guidance was showing a mean skewed south with that coming blocking episode. In the end we had 2 storms suppressed and squashed during that window so it was too much blocking maybe. Another point, I have been keeping an eye on the control runs to see what they show to get an idea of what an individual member might look like. This only works when the control matches the mean pattern but most runs it has. There have been several OMG LOOK AT THAT PATTERN runs of the control in the last week...and yet DC had little or no snow from them! That isn't an issue with a mean, that is an individual run that was saying despite a -3stdv block and perfect pacific we were going to see several storms manage to track north enough for us to get mostly rain from the pattern. The other day there seemed to be a few perfect track rainstorms in there judging from the daily SLP plots. Saw a few daily SLP where I was like ok there is our HECS then the snow plots showed nothing until up in PA. I agree it's not something to be overly worried about. But I think its worth mentioning and taking note that the guidance is not aligning the snow output with what you would expect looking at the pattern. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 The fighting has become ridiculous this week. Why not just let everyone think, feel, and talk however they want? Ok, so I get it that if you're happy with the winter having to hear someone post about how not happy they are can be frustrating. But know what is more frustrating, the 25 posts back and forth where the people happy are telling them not to deb, and then the 25 posts from the people not happy telling the happy people that its not good enough. Or maybe you think a specific topic doesn't belong here, but unless its really egregiously off topic why not just let it go because that's better than the 25 posts arguing about what we should or shouldn't talk about in every thread. Why not just let everyone be and talk how and about what they want? Read the posts you are interested in and skip the stuff you are not. Filling up the threat with crossfire about how to feel and what to talk about is making it so much worse imo. I am sure given the mood of the board I will probably be told to F off and then we will fight about what I just said...but I thought I would at least try. 4 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The fighting has become ridiculous this week. Why not just let everyone think, feel, and talk however they want? Ok, so I get it that if you're happy with the winter having to hear someone post about how not happy they are can be frustrating. But know what is more frustrating, the 25 posts back and forth where the people happy are telling them not to deb, and then the 25 posts from the people not happy telling the happy people that its not good enough. Or maybe you think a specific topic doesn't belong here, but unless its really egregiously off topic why not just let it go because that's better than the 25 posts arguing about what we should or shouldn't talk about in every thread. Why not just let everyone be and talk how and about what they want? Read the posts you are interested in and skip the stuff you are not. Filling up the threat with crossfire about how to feel and what to talk about is making it so much worse imo. I am sure given the mood of the board I will probably be told to F off and then we will fight about what I just said...but I thought I would at least try. This is banter or panic room or both. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I acknowledged I usually don't put much stock in the snowfall products BUT this isn't totally accurate, yes usually they are pretty close to climo but the few times over the years I've seen the extended products look that THAT, they usually did show a mean skewed south into the mid atlantic. The tell tale sign is when the snow mean doesn't really even increase to the north much until you get way into Canada. I saw that back in 2019 for example. It never happened because the extended guidance was wrong about the pattern and that amazing looking Feb 2010 clone pattern just never actually became a reality. There were times in 2014, 2015, and 2016 when the snow means at weeks 3-5 showed a crazy anomaly centered over the mid atlantic also....and guess what we got some big snows eventually each of those years. We just have not had the kind of patterns where the guidance SHOULD be showing much of a positive snow anomaly over us the last 8 years. March 2018 I also think towards late Febuary the extended guidance was showing a mean skewed south with that coming blocking episode. In the end we had 2 storms suppressed and squashed during that window so it was too much blocking maybe. Another point, I have been keeping an eye on the control runs to see what they show to get an idea of what an individual member might look like. This only works when the control matches the mean pattern but most runs it has. There have been several OMG LOOK AT THAT PATTERN runs of the control in the last week...and yet DC had little or no snow from them! That isn't an issue with a mean, that is an individual run that was saying despite a -3stdv block and perfect pacific we were going to see several storms manage to track north enough for us to get mostly rain from the pattern. The other day there seemed to be a few perfect track rainstorms in there judging from the daily SLP plots. Saw a few daily SLP where I was like ok there is our HECS then the snow plots showed nothing until up in PA. I agree it's not something to be overly worried about. But I think its worth mentioning and taking note that the guidance is not aligning the snow output with what you would expect looking at the pattern. I echo someone else who asked this earlier: What did those snow means show for last week before it happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I echo someone else who asked this earlier: What did those snow means show for last week before it happened?The best snow maps for this winter was for Jan 6-7. Just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: I think we might be the only ones into this. You’re not 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I echo someone else who asked this earlier: What did those snow means show for last week before it happened? nothing notable from what i can recall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 Favorite novelist of our day? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Favorite novelist of our day? Banter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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