paulythegun Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 This made me chuckle. take that, winter of 2023/2024 naysayers! 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Any flakes falling on Monday during the two-week sadness lull up my way would be a bit of a win. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: Any flakes falling on Monday during the two-week sadness lull up my way would be a bit of a win. As depicted on the euro, flakes would fly for many many hours (into puddles, but whatever). My metal, elevated deck will be covered though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: pretty large 00z -> 12z shift from the EURO. 12z 00z There are some pretty significant differences at h5. Results in a much stronger low closer to the coast on the 12z run. Can't see that stuff on a snow clown map. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 There are some pretty significant differences at h5. Results in a much stronger low closer to the coast on the 12z run. Can't see that stuff on a snow clown map. Yeah but I don’t care about the changes unless they result in a nice looking snow clown map /s… mostly 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Seems like the same issue we've had outside of basically the last week. It's just not cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24 Author Share Posted January 24 The changes over the past 48 hours in the euro have been pretty large. It’s now in the place the gfs was then. The gfs which changed quite a bit in sending this system into the Ohio valley hopefully will return to its roots. I just feel we are so close to an event that might produce for at least some areas of the forum. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 17 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Seems like the same issue we've had outside of basically the last week. It's just not cold enough. Not sure this fits under the same category. This would be a marginal setup in any decade (except maybe the snowin' 60s, lol). But the fact that some parts of the forum maybe able to squeeze something out of this is encouraging, imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Asking for the game Sunday: Game is at 3 pm...y'all think it's gonna be a washout, or more spotty/scattered as the coastal transfer (if I'm identifying it right) starts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The changes over the past 48 hours in the euro have been pretty large. It’s now in the place the gfs was then. The gfs which changed quite a bit in sending this system into the Ohio valley hopefully will return to its roots. I just feel we are so close to an event that might produce for at least some areas of the forum. Similar to the GFS, it would need to come together a little faster and further south for our region. The general setup has looked interesting even at range. Lack of cold air has been the big issue. HP is in a nice spot- important with a marginal airmass. Verbatim the Euro is a paste bomb and it mostly works because of the quickly strengthening low close to the coast. Places that get snow would be rain initially then flip to heavy wet snow with column cooling. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 54 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: pretty large 00z -> 12z shift from the EURO. 12z 00z Way more realistic. GFS is smoking dat good stuff 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Way more realistic. GFS is smoking dat good stuff Agreed. I think E PA / N NJ wins this one. Not sure about NYC metro. High elevs in our sub may get a little bit, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Agreed. I think E PA / N NJ wins this one. Not sure about NYC metro. High elevs in our sub may get a little bit, too Most likely. All 3 ens means at 12z have a strong signal for snow across PA and into SNE. EPS is the most robust now with what the 12z op did, and would get some snow into far N MD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24 Author Share Posted January 24 22 minutes ago, CAPE said: Similar to the GFS, it would need to come together a little faster and further south for our region. The general setup has looked interesting even at range. Lack of cold air has been the big issue. HP is in a nice spot- important with a marginal airmass. Verbatim the Euro is a paste bomb and it mostly works because of the quickly strengthening low close to the coast. Places that get snow would be rain initially then flip to heavy wet snow with column cooling. What I noticed on the 12 Z run was the euro was indeed slower. I’m not certain of how much further south it might’ve been. But if this thing does trend just a little bit slower and a little bit further south, we could be looking at a significant event for at least part of our region 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Still 5 to 6 days out. Last 2 storms werent nailed down till within 24 hours lol and even then it had to ve tweaked the last minute.. it will change a few more times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: Still 5 to 6 days out. Last 2 storms werent nailed down till within 24 hours lol and even then it had to ve tweaked the last minute.. it will change a few more times True, but we had the cold air. This time we don't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I’ve been keeping an eye on this one, because I feel like we have been lucky this year. And mostly because DT says no snow for the Mid Atlantic Sunday-Monday. Realistically, PSU and colder will get lucky, but I can hope for a fluke southern trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: True, but we had the cold air. This time we don't. Well if u look at this pic. And see that high to the north we should have cold air coming down.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 EPS Control was a weenie run for having the chance to track stuff during a "dead" period. The storm that favors NE of us on Sun/Mon swipes PSU-land Back-to-back clippers swing in from Canada on Wednesday and Thursday leaving a general T-3" regionwide Reasonable sized storm for CVA the following Wednesday would be a very solid 10-day period starting this Sunday 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: EPS Control was a weenie run for having the chance to track stuff during a "dead" period. The storm that favors NE of us on Sun/Mon swipes PSU-land Back-to-back clippers swing in from Canada on Wednesday and Thursday leaving a general T-3" regionwide Reasonable sized storm for CVA the following Wednesday would be a very solid 10-day period starting this Sunday Nice... and this is entirely before the "good" pattern starting Feb 8-12ish?? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Terpeast said: Nice... and this is entirely before the "good" pattern starting Feb 8-12ish?? We’re a snow town now* *(some terms and conditions apply) 1 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 seems like mid-Feb into early March could be very, very fun. not even a single tick backwards, keeps moving forward in time 21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: seems like mid-Feb into early March could be very, very fun. not even a single tick backwards, keeps moving forward in time Its going to end up being a one week lull that was far from a torch. This winter has been very good so far. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Nice... and this is entirely before the "good" pattern starting Feb 8-12ish??We’re a long way out, but Feb 8-10 has a threat in it similarly to how the control did it. Split flow the STJ is going to undercut the central conus/Canada ridge. 12z GFS had a similar evolution a few days later. We can def score in this type of pattern. Would be a great sign if we do! . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, Heisy said: We’re a long way out, but Feb 8-10 has a threat in it similarly to how the control did it. Split flow the STJ is going to undercut the central conus/Canada ridge. 12z GFS had a similar evolution a few days later. We can def score in this type of pattern. Would be a great sign if we do! . and to think people are punting the rest of the winter. fucking insane gotta suck to be that jaded 6 1 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I mean the weeklies are about as perfect as you could ask for lol. It starts with the split flow pattern we see at the end of the 12z eps today and it’s literally deep winter thru the end of the run. Pretty sick. Really hope it’s even close to right we’ll end the season above average if so no doubt . 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: seems like mid-Feb into early March could be very, very fun. not even a single tick backwards, keeps moving forward in time I’m pretty sure it’s coming. My only concern is despite a height pattern that says the snow axis should be centered south of 40* the ens mean continues to have the snow focused pretty far north. Today’s euro control is another good example also. Look at the 30 day mean h5 and you think “omg Raleigh to DC must be getting smoked” but then look at the snow and it’s mostly all NW of DC centered central PA up into New England again. This isn’t a one run fluke it’s been consistent every run lately. @Terpeast curious your take. Usually I disregard snow output at range completely but given everything lately and how much we have riding on this upcoming pattern I’ll be honest it has me at least mildly perplexed. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 10 minutes ago, Heisy said: I mean the weeklies are about as perfect as you could ask for lol. It starts with the split flow pattern we see at the end of the 12z eps today and it’s literally deep winter thru the end of the run. Pretty sick. Really hope it’s even close to right we’ll end the season above average if so no doubt . Yep looks great! One thing i'd like to see is the good look at the end of the ensembles. They keep kicking it a day forward.....but i'll be patient! Here's yesterday's 12z EPS: VS today 12z EPS: Looking forward to seeing the blue connect with the blue!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: and to think people are punting the rest of the winter. fucking insane gotta suck to be that jaded Some punted end of Dec. Most here are sincere but for a few this is their myopic, emotional deformities dumping ground. It’s chilling to think what that attitude does to those they have dominion over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m pretty sure it’s coming. My only concern is despite a height pattern that says the snow axis should be centered south of 40* the ens mean continues to have the snow focused pretty far north. Today’s euro control is another good example also. Look at the 30 day mean h5 and you think “omg Raleigh to DC must be getting smoked” but then look at the snow and it’s mostly all NW of DC centered central PA up into New England again. This isn’t a one run fluke it’s been consistent every run lately. @Terpeast curious your take. Usually I disregard snow output at range completely but given everything lately and how much we have riding on this upcoming pattern I’ll be honest it has me at least mildly perplexed. H5 looks great. Near perfect. But what matters is what we have at the surface. How cold does it get, not just when it's dry, but when it's precipitating. Do we get a good high to the north when we get an incoming wave? Where does the r/s line lie? Those details obviously can't be resolved this far out, and I'd be highly skeptical of snow maps at 3 weeks out. Take last week for example - 3 weeks or even 1 week prior, snow maps barely showed an inch and we ended up getting ~10 in one week! I don't remember seeing a snow map like that on the weeklies that far out. If anything, they were further north across PA into SNE, even up until 2 days before the second wave, and then it dunked south at the last possible minute. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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