Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3

[CAPE]

38 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I was responding to PSU, who for some odd reason jumped in and replied to my post to go on some tangent related to yours. You still can't read for context. Want me to repost my op and your reply and go over it with you with one word at a time? We can do that in banter if you would like.

Done.

[Daniel Boone]

52 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Remember in 1979 when the ocean froze along OC.?  Took a while to figure out but extreme cold and very heavy snow allowed slush to accumulate and it froze. It’s also believed  that very strong n-nne winds pushed similar ice and snow formation from out of Delaware Bay and down to OC coastline. I’ve got pics of me about 150 feet into the frozen mass and at that point I began to feel something different under my feet so headed back in. 

Remember it well. Post the pic if you can. 

[Daniel Boone]

51 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I have a hand written winter weather diary from 1965  until I stopped in 2015.

i would like to publish it maybe or find some way to share copies of it.  There are some staggering hourlies that we just rarely have put together in last 25 years. 
 

One  excetpt  from Blizzard  of 66 is “…19 degrees ant 2  and just snowed 3” in last 2 hours so up to 10” and dad says radio said winds are 40 mph. I can’t see dad standing by the lamppost…”

It would be interesting to check out that Diary. Good stuff ! 

[Heisy]

Things still on track today. Pattern chasing is boring but it’s all we got.

-EPO signal




.

[Terpeast]

Just now, Heisy said:

Things still on track today. Pattern chasing is boring but it’s all we got.

-EPO signal




.

I like it. As long as there is no can kicking. 

get that thing to undercut is how we win

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I like it. As long as there is no can kicking. 

get that thing to undercut is how we win

i love that ensembles are confirming the weeklies. that pattern evolution makes sense and it seems like all ensembles are getting there 

we’ll see more Greenland blocking develop as the N ATL trough intensifies 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Yeoman said:

Hard to believe an 1100 hr model run wouldn't make sense.. Maybe it all falls in March

The point isn’t that the 1100hr is correct. It’s that it’s consistently been showing despite a west based block and a trough axis to our south the snow is to the north. That’s worth mentioning. That h5 look should place the core of snow south of 40 not north of it. 

[Blizzard of 93]

43 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i love that ensembles are confirming the weeklies. that pattern evolution makes sense and it seems like all ensembles are getting there 

we’ll see more Greenland blocking develop as the N ATL trough intensifies 

 

The Euro weeklies then lock the good pattern in from the second week of February through early March.

 

•  

[psuhoffman]

51 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I like it. As long as there is no can kicking. 

get that thing to undercut is how we win

Been the opposite of can kicking the last week. At one point it looked like Feb 11 before we got to what the ensembles are now showing around Feb 8.  

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Been the opposite of can kicking the last week. At one point it looked like Feb 11 before we got to what the ensembles are now showing around Feb 8.  

Yep looks that way. Positive sign. In February, every day counts!

[Blizzard of 93]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Been the opposite of can kicking the last week. At one point it looked like Feb 11 before we got to what the ensembles are now showing around Feb 8.  

Yes indeed.

The 18z GEFS ends with a good look by the 8th.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Fozz said:

While we're on this topic, here are some other spots and their snowpack records.

Millers, MD from the late 80s to today (not far from psuhoffman, but lower elevation)

Number of Consecutive Days Snow Depth >= 1
for MILLERS 4 NE, MD
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
Period of record: 1988-03-01 to 2024-01-22
1	75	1994-03-19
2	49	1996-01-26
3	35	2014-03-09
4	33	2004-02-19
-	33	2003-03-11
6	32	2010-03-08
-	32	2000-02-20
8	28	2021-02-27
-	28	2011-02-14
10	27	2001-01-14

 

BWI from 1950 to today

Number of Consecutive Days Snow Depth >= 1
for BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, MD
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
Period of record: 1950-07-23 to 2024-01-22
1	29	1961-02-17
2	22	2000-02-10
3	21	1989-12-29
4	20	1960-12-31
5	19	2003-03-05
-	19	1979-02-25
-	19	1963-01-09
8	18	2010-02-23
-	18	1982-01-31
10	17	1966-02-12

 

IAD from 1960 to today

Number of Consecutive Days Snow Depth >= 1
for WASHINGTON DULLES INTL AP, VA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1960-04-01 to 2024-01-22
1	26	2010-02-25
2	24	1977-01-29
-	24	1963-01-13
4	23	1971-01-23
-	23	1970-01-17
6	22	1989-12-30
7	21	2000-02-09
8	20	2015-03-08
-	20	1966-02-11
10	19	2003-03-05

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

Seems like for the cities and close suburbs, the ceiling is 3-4 weeks. But if you're further N or W, you could get a much longer run under the right conditions. 

Those Millers numbers are pretty close to mine. For the several I was here for on that list I had snowcover just a few days longer. 2021 I lost snow March 2 v Feb 27.  Makes sense most storms Millers is pretty close but typically maybe an inch less.  I knew it snowed more up here but I was most surprised after moving here was how much longer snowcover lasts here v in the metro areas. 

[Ji]

The point isn’t that the 1100hr is correct. It’s that it’s consistently been showing despite a west based block and a trough axis to our south the snow is to the north. That’s worth mentioning. That h5 look should place the core of snow south of 40 not north of it. 

Why is it don’t that? It makes no sense. It’s not a miller b pattern…it’s not a cutter pattern. Unless there are different clusters of ensembles seeing different things

[Fozz]

21 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

 

 

The Euro weeklies then lock the good pattern in from the second week of February through early March.

 

•  

Seems like the weeklies just lock a very stable eastern trough and Greenland block throughout the whole run.

Can it be trusted that far out, or is it simply projecting based on Nino climo?

[Fozz]

If this turns out the way the Euro weeklies are advertising, then a 30”+ season for the cities should easily be in play. Maybe 40+ if we get a HECS.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

Why is it don’t that? It makes no sense. It’s not a miller b pattern…it’s not a cutter pattern. Unless there are different clusters of ensembles seeing different things

I thought that but I’ve been posting the control to show even the individual runs seem to have that incongruence.  As for why it seems there are a lot of perfect track rainstorms on the runs similar to that storm earlier this month where despite a good track the snow is northern PA into New England. I’m not too worried about it. History beats surface output at range 90% if the time. Just pointing it out. 

[Fozz]

Weeklies are showing a very strong signal for the VDay to PD period, especially with such strong mean height anomalies 3 weeks out. Also could be a 50/50 low. Everything looks locked and loaded.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

 

 

The Euro weeklies then lock the good pattern in from the second week of February through early March.

 

•  

 Based on the currently advertised pattern progression, we could see a significant event in the 10-15th window. HECS potential likely begins around PD imo.

[nj2va]

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

 Based on the currently advertised pattern progression, we could see a significant event in the 10-15th window. HECS potential likely begins around PD imo.

Let’s push that up a few days…I’m in FL the week of PD.  

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Let’s push that up a few days…I’m in FL the week of PD.  

Late Feb into early March would be the prime time for something big looking at the h5 evolution on the weeklies/extended products verbatim. Subject to some change ofc.

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Remember it well. Post the pic if you can. 

It’s somewhere. Polaroid Swinger  I think.

[Fozz]

GFS is showing a possible signal for the week of Feb 5th. 

ETA: looks like a suppressed southern slider. Probably worth keeping an eye on that window.

[Ji]

GFS is showing a possible signal for the week of Feb 5th. 
ETA: looks like a suppressed southern slider. Probably worth keeping an eye on that window.

Giving psu Feb 2003 vibes

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

[Fozz]

Just now, Ji said:

Giving psu Feb 2003 vibes

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

Yeah I didn't want to say it but if everything goes our way this could be an appetizer for something bigger down the line.

[CAPE]

For a few runs now the GFS has been indicating strong surface HP building southward from central/eastern Canada with a storm developing along the Gulf coast around Feb 6th. It is depicting an anticyclonic wave break as the amplified upper ridge builds towards Hudson Bay, capturing TPV lobes and sending them southward towards Atlantic Canada, which creates confluence in the area downstream of the ridge/backside of the vortex. That results in strong HP at the surface. We shall see how real that is. GEFS has the look of confluence with the compressed/flattened west-east height lines to our north, and hints of shortwave energy embedded in the southern stream. Biggest issue on the mean for this timeframe is lack of cold air.

 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS, always a good sign to see a little snow in the middle of our two week lull (Day 5-6).

[Bob Chill]

Analogs are starting to turn around. Top 5 d11+ adding winter back. 95 is a new one.  Late Jan 95 showing with multiple dates. It was a good period as late Jan-mid Feb 95 was a wintry period. The analog that is scary is 1998 lol but prob just a Nino thing. I'm not concerned about it. 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Analogs are starting to turn around. Top 5 d11+ adding winter back. 95 is a new one.  Late Jan 95 showing with multiple dates. It was a good period as late Jan-mid Feb 95 was a wintry period. The analog that is scary is 1998 lol but prob just a Nino thing. I'm not concerned about it. 

Make it 98 with even seasonable cold and we’d like it a lot IMO

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Make it 98 with even seasonable cold and we’d like it a lot IMO

Exactly. Plus, 98 was warm for very obvious and unsurprising reasons. Far from apples to apples with Nino stuff other than sharing same name. 

I read PSU's post from yesterday about storm track. That's been ingrained into the winter pattern from the beginning and something that keeps me grounded. Sometimes things consistently line up similar but wrong for us. This winter has been wrong for I95 top to bottom so far except for our lucky slice. I personally don't look for reasons though. We're talking about 100 miles mostly. Imo- that type of wiggle happens just cuz.

It cuts both ways as the 13-15 stretch is a great example of a long term lining up right. I doubt Feb has a consistent hostile 100mi wrong way storm track in an otherwise decent pattern.  It's the best month for lower latitudes. But if the pattern sets in and things still slide overhead or west, it shouldn't surprise anyone imo

[Eskimo Joe]

06z GFS tries hard for Sunday night.