Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3

[WEATHER53]

I shoveled the  fully shaded slate patio and after I got all the snow off, the slush film  refroze  with a  43F air temp!!   Cold cold nights !

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Hint: I never said anything about expectations for snow this winter because it's a Nino. He read into that/ had some preconceived notion or whatever the hell and went off on some tangent about certain people here being crazy for thinking average climo snowfall is ok this winter. HE HAD NO POINT. Still not sure why you replied with all this superfluous crap lol.

I disagree with his attack on others. I agree with the one point that the bar this winter is way higher than just trying to hit climo. That was the only part I was trying to comment on. 

[AU74]

3 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

I think in 1977 it went below freezing for like 37 consecutive days 

Yep. Everything froze solid including the bay. During that cold snap, my brother and some friends ice skated along the Patuxent River from just below Brighton Dam to Rocky Gorge just below Route 29. 

[WEATHER53]

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I disagree with his attack on others. I agree with the one point that the bar this winter is way higher than just trying to hit climo. That was the only part I was trying to comment on. 

Hope you get better snd that children did not get it.  Our grandchildren had a nasty stomach big  and I got that last week for 5 days. I may have been a tad surly then. 

[WEATHER53]

Just now, AU74 said:

Yep. Everything froze solid including the bay. During that cold snap, my brother and some friends ice skated along the Patuxent River from just below Brighton Dam to Rocky Gorge just below Route 29. 

Cars were on South River where it exits into the bay.  You could not tell where the snow covered land ended and the frozen snow covered water began. I think all but the channel maxed out over a foot thick of ice. 

[CAPE]

40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I disagree with his attack on others. I agree with the one point that the bar this winter is way higher than just trying to hit climo. That was the only part I was trying to comment on. 

It was just odd you replied to my post to begin with. What you chose to go on a soapbox over was unrelated to the context of the discourse.

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

I think in 1977 it went below freezing for like 37 consecutive days 

Those late 70's Winter's were something to have witnessed for us old timer's Howard. Without Pic's, Video's etc..many wouldn't believe how incredible they were.

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Hope you get better snd that children did not get it.  Our grandchildren had a nasty stomach big  and I got that last week for 5 days. I may have been a tad surly then. 

Thank you.  Sunday night I got very sick and tested positive for the flu.  I was at a large party Saturday so I guess its not shocking... the last couple days were awful, but I think I am starting to feel better now.  

[Ji]

i wish we had a thread for historical weather stuff........

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It was just odd you replied to my post to begin with. What you chose to go on a soapbox over was unrelated to the context of the discourse.

I made a mistake and thought you were arguing his point about what expectations should be this season for total snowfall...now I think maybe the discussion was more about expectations up to this point.  Sorry.  I am still not close to 100%, that's no excuse but I was lazy and didn't really follow the whole thread like I normally do.  

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I made a mistake and thought you were arguing his point about what expectations should be this season for total snowfall...now I think maybe the discussion was more about expectations up to this point.  Sorry.  I am still not close to 100%, that's no excuse but I was lazy and didn't really follow the whole thread like I normally do.  

No worries. Hope you feel better soon.

[psuhoffman]

 

I found the numbers I had put together back in the fall...and this was why I went with such a big number this winter.  I didn't just pull that out of weenie wishcasting...

Since 2000 these are BWI's avg snowfall numbers by enso

Mod/Strong Nino: 56.7"

Weak nino: 19"

Neutral enso: 12"

Nina: 11.7"

The bar in a mod/strong nino cannot be to "get to 20".  Our avg snowfall is not evenly distributed.  In reality we get a lot of snow in mod/stron ninos, a decent amount in weak ninos, and we SUCK ASS in every other winter.  We have to score HUGE in mod/strong ninos or its a big fail.  

Just in case someone thinks "that's too small a sample size..." if we go all the way back to 1950 and take all Mod/Strong basin wide nino's with a decending -QBO BWI averages 42".  Hence...why I predicted a little over 40". Again I didn't pull that out hopefully, that is what the data says the bar should be this season. 

I grade seasons on a curve based on these factors.  Also...keep in mind neutrals can be better in a favorable PDO cycle but they are atrocious during a hostile PDO base state.  Nina's tend to be pretty bad regardless of the PDO base state heading in, but 1996 did turn out better because the nina never coupled and we got a favorable PDO all winter. So there is some nuance...but in general I would consider a 15-20" winter a huge huge huge success if it was a neutral or nina season.  Thats a HUGE win.  In a mod/strong nino, its a huge fail.  Its just different imo.  

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

No worries. Hope you feel better soon.

Thanks, I think I finally turned a corner the last few hours.  

[Interstate]

8 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I think many of us, including myself, have selective memories of our winters where we live. We tend to remember the snowiest highlights of each winter, while memories of warm/rain with brown ground fade away. This effectively magnifies how much snow we think we ought to see here.

Before y’all come at me, I say again that I’m guilty of this too

Plus kids here got 10 full days of sledding. I’m sure they’ll have good memories of this period.

This sounds like a true gamblers. Only telling about your winnings and never about your losses. 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

i wish we had a thread for historical weather stuff........

maybe we should...but often it belongs here since history is how we predict the future. What's happened during past similar patterns is very pertinent to the discussions here about upcoming pattern expectations.  

[stormy]

1 hour ago, dallen7908 said:

I should probably put something together but I was just going with the following: 

Thanks!!

This is quite interesting, no trend since 1893. The luck of the draw with various winter patterns! My records at Staunton go back to 1893.

The Staunton records clearly reveal that summers were hotter 100 years ago.  More 90+ days pre 1958 than post 1958. I closely tracked this during last summer for my newsletter.

[psuhoffman]

Something continues to be a recurring theme, great looking pattern, lackluster snow output. Yesterday’s euro control was the best example yet. 
This 30 day mean pattern 

Still put the axis of snow north of us 

with that pattern we should be more worried about suppression. It’s been doing this a lot. Suggesting the snow will be displaced north of where I expect based on the pattern. Not saying I buy it. Long range snow means aren’t often great tools. Just flagging this in case it does happen to note the models keep showing it. 

[SnowenOutThere]

16 minutes ago, stormy said:

The Staunton records clearly reveal that summers were hotter 100 years ago.  More 90+ days pre 1958 than post 1958. I closely tracked this during last summer for my newsletter.

Increased humidity in the summer functions to keep heat down despite overall warming 

[osfan24]

2 hours ago, dallen7908 said:

I should probably put something together but I was just going with the following: 

I am shocked 2014 isn’t on this list. I know it’s for DC, but 2014 to me was just an incredible winter between the constant light to moderate snowstorms and incredible cold. Even 2015 seems like it could make a run at that list.

[osfan24]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Hint: I never said anything about expectations for snow this winter because it's a Nino. He read into that/ had some preconceived notion or whatever the hell and went off on some tangent about certain people here being crazy for thinking average climo snowfall is ok this winter. HE HAD NO POINT. Still not sure why you replied with all this superfluous crap lol.

I had a point. You just disagreed with it. I don’t recall attacking anyone, either. I just said people who think climo in a Nino is good are crazy. Your constant posts about my one post have been far more egregious than anything I said, not that I take offense, but it’s comical.

Your post literally said we just came off a great week (true) and that if we could repeat it again, it would be a typical season at this latitude. That’s just not true for a Nino . We’ve had about 10 inches of snow. BWI is at 9.2 I believe. If you double that, it is literally climo. It’s not terrible in a Nina. In a Nino, that’s not good. That was my only point. And the fact you seem to think it’s good is why I posted.

[stormy]

8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Increased humidity in the summer functions to keep heat down despite overall warming 

Thanks for your input.  The 90+ days 75 years ago are 2 - 1 more than recent years.

Pre 1958 which is the 50% benchmark there were 17    90 degree + days. Post 1958 there were 7 90+ days on August 1.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Those late 70's Winter's were something to have witnessed for us old timer's Howard. Without Pic's, Video's etc..many wouldn't believe how incredible they were.

Remember in 1979 when the ocean froze along OC.?  Took a while to figure out but extreme cold and very heavy snow allowed slush to accumulate and it froze. It’s also believed  that very strong n-nne winds pushed similar ice and snow formation from out of Delaware Bay and down to OC coastline. I’ve got pics of me about 150 feet into the frozen mass and at that point I began to feel something different under my feet so headed back in. 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I had a point. You just disagreed with it. I don’t recall attacking anyone, either. I just said people who think climo in a Nino is good are crazy. Your constant posts about my one post have been far more egregious than anything I said, not that I take offense, but it’s comical.

Your post literally said we just came off a great week (true) and that if we could repeat it again, it would be a great season. That’s just not true. We’ve had about 10 inches of snow. BWI is at 9.2 I believe. If you double that, it is literally climo. It’s not terrible in a Nina. In a Nino, that’s not good. That was my only point. And the fact you seem to think it’s good is why I posted.

Give it a rest dude. Your "point" had nothing to do with what I said in my post. And show me where I said you attacked anyone. You might want to take that one up with PSU.

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Give it a rest dude. Your "point" had nothing to do with what I said in my post. And show me where I said you attacked anyone. You might want to take that one up with PSU.

Give it a rest? Says the guy who made numerous posts about it over the past 3 pages of the thread. I made an original post, and then just responded again. But yes, I’ll give it a rest.

Your point was a repeat of what we already had would be a typical snowfall for the season. My point was that’s not the case for a Nino and nuance matters.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

maybe we should...but often it belongs here since history is how we predict the future. What's happened during past similar patterns is very pertinent to the discussions here about upcoming pattern expectations.  

I have a hand written winter weather diary from 1965  until I stopped in 2015.

i would like to publish it maybe or find some way to share copies of it.  There are some staggering hourlies that we just rarely have put together in last 25 years. 
 

One  excetpt  from Blizzard  of 66 is “…19 degrees ant 2  and just snowed 3” in last 2 hours so up to 10” and dad says radio said winds are 40 mph. I can’t see dad standing by the lamppost…”

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Give it a rest? Says the guy who made numerous posts about it over the past 3 pages of the thread. I made an original post, and then just responded again. But yes, I’ll give it a rest.

Your point was a repeat of what we already had would be a typical snowfall for the season. My point was that’s not the case for a Nino and nuance matters.

I was responding to PSU, who for some odd reason jumped in and replied to my post to go on some tangent related to yours. You still can't read for context. Want me to repost my op and your reply and go over it with you with one word at a time? We can do that in banter if you would like.

[Yeoman]

53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Something continues to be a recurring theme, great looking pattern, lackluster snow output. Yesterday’s euro control was the best example yet. 
This 30 day mean pattern 

Still put the axis of snow north of us 

with that pattern we should be more worried about suppression. It’s been doing this a lot. Suggesting the snow will be displaced north of where I expect based on the pattern. Not saying I buy it. Long range snow means aren’t often great tools. Just flagging this in case it does happen to note the models keep showing it. 

Hard to believe an 1100 hr model run wouldn't make sense.. Maybe it all falls in March

[Fozz]

29 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I am shocked 2014 isn’t on this list. I know it’s for DC, but 2014 to me was just an incredible winter between the constant light to moderate snowstorms and incredible cold. Even 2015 seems like it could make a run at that list.

2014 had a very sharp gradient between those who had an epic, historic winter, and those who missed out until the very late part of the season. But in the favored areas it was absolutely incredible. That's probably why.

Also that list only counts consecutive days of snowpack, so if there are any small breaks before the next storm it ends the streak. 

[Fozz]

12 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I have a hand written winter weather diary from 1965  until I stopped in 2015.

i would like to publish it maybe or find some way to share copies of it.  There are some staggering hourlies that we just rarely have put together in last 25 years. 
 

One  excetpt  from Blizzard  of 66 is “…19 degrees ant 2  and just snowed 3” in last 2 hours so up to 10” and dad says radio said winds are 40 mph. I can’t see dad standing by the lamppost…”

You should publish it. Maybe get a PDF scan, and then upload it online.

[Fozz]

While we're on this topic, here are some other spots and their snowpack records.

Millers, MD from the late 80s to today (not far from psuhoffman, but lower elevation)

Number of Consecutive Days Snow Depth >= 1
for MILLERS 4 NE, MD
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
Period of record: 1988-03-01 to 2024-01-22
1	75	1994-03-19
2	49	1996-01-26
3	35	2014-03-09
4	33	2004-02-19
-	33	2003-03-11
6	32	2010-03-08
-	32	2000-02-20
8	28	2021-02-27
-	28	2011-02-14
10	27	2001-01-14

 

BWI from 1950 to today

Number of Consecutive Days Snow Depth >= 1
for BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, MD
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
Period of record: 1950-07-23 to 2024-01-22
1	29	1961-02-17
2	22	2000-02-10
3	21	1989-12-29
4	20	1960-12-31
5	19	2003-03-05
-	19	1979-02-25
-	19	1963-01-09
8	18	2010-02-23
-	18	1982-01-31
10	17	1966-02-12

 

IAD from 1960 to today

Number of Consecutive Days Snow Depth >= 1
for WASHINGTON DULLES INTL AP, VA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1960-04-01 to 2024-01-22
1	26	2010-02-25
2	24	1977-01-29
-	24	1963-01-13
4	23	1971-01-23
-	23	1970-01-17
6	22	1989-12-30
7	21	2000-02-09
8	20	2015-03-08
-	20	1966-02-11
10	19	2003-03-05

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

Seems like for the cities and close suburbs, the ceiling is 3-4 weeks. But if you're further N or W, you could get a much longer run under the right conditions.