Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3

[Paleocene]

13 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Different climate up your way; the longest recorded stretch with snow on the ground in DC is 29 days  from Jan 20 to Feb 17, 1961

Good to know. Do you have data on that? I was just reflecting this morning that our now 8+ day stretch of snow cover inside the beltway is anomalous in my 14-years of being here dataset.

[WxUSAF]

18 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Op generally looks like ensembles now. The question happens few days after this time period. Does -epo pop, does the ridge heights migrate to AO territory etc. it’s what the weeklies do so that’s the hope



.

Almost every gfs op run the last couple days has ended with a storm happening or approaching. And I know…300+ hr gfs…I’m not taking any literally, but it gives me hope that there are enough scenarios where we can be back in the game pretty quickly.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Almost every gfs op run the last couple days has ended with a storm happening or approaching. And I know…300+ hr gfs…I’m not taking any literally, but it gives me hope that there are enough scenarios where we can be back in the game pretty quickly.

you end up here on the OP... you're very quickly moving to a good to great pattern here. lots is in motion

[Daniel Boone]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you end up here on the OP... you're very quickly moving to a good to great pattern here. lots is in motion

Verbatim that's a major Winter storm for the mid South and Tennessee Valley if it is cold enough if that depiction came to fruition. 

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

I spent the past 3 winters looking at the MJO and posting it here numerous times. I came to conclusion that it means absolutely nothing for us. We fail when it is in both good and bad phases. Enso means much more. It may be that it matters more in a Nino than a Nina though? 

GaWx posted about how SE US Snow was more prevalent during Ph 7 MJO during Nino's. Probably something to do with the STJ and typical blocking during El Nino. 

[WEATHER53]

42 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Different climate up your way; the longest recorded stretch with snow on the ground in DC is 29 days  from Jan 20 to Feb 17, 1961

I think in 1977 it went below freezing for like 37 consecutive days 

[CAPE]

24 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Verbatim that's a major Winter storm for the mid South and Tennessee Valley if it is cold enough if that depiction came to fruition. 

[Heisy]

Almost every gfs op run the last couple days has ended with a storm happening or approaching. And I know…300+ hr gfs…I’m not taking any literally, but it gives me hope that there are enough scenarios where we can be back in the game pretty quickly.

Yea definitely a positive to see that regardless of the range. It’s also good to see the OP forming that -epo ridge just like the weeklies



.

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, CAPE said:

How many weeks of actual winter weather did we have the last time there was a strong Nino? Be careful calling people crazy when you drop turd posts like this.

This isn’t a traditional strong Nino. Maybe @osfan24was too aggressive and I wish to remain amicable here. But I see a lot of contradictory stances going around. Back in 2019 the excuse why we didn’t get the expected Nino was the ONI and SOI measures were actually neutral and those are more important.  It’s been generally agreed this isn’t a strong Nino in terms of how it’s affecting the hemispheric pattern. And even in 2016 we had 3 distinct windows with good treats. The 10 days in January when the hecs hit but there was a small precursor and we missed a threat after. A two week window in Feb with a couple small snow/ice events then a perfect track rainstorm that I had 9”. Then 2 weeks in March with a couple of minor events.  We were very unlucky not to get more snow that winter!  Lastly the last 7 years I’ve heard “we have to wait for a real Nino” so many times. Now we have one. We can’t afford it to just be ok. This has to be a great winter. It still can be. But we’ve suffered for 7 awful years. We’re facing a likely dreg winter next year. This has to be that one or two huge years we get each decade or it’s a fail given the situation. 

 

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, snowfan said:

Which still isn’t much. Folks in this sub need to get it out of their heads that PSU lives in some winter wonderland. I spent over a decade living just north of him on the other side of the mason/dixon. Yes, it averages more snow than the metros. Yes, it does better in marginal events. And yes, it still deals with warm periods and skunker events just like everyone else in the M/A. It’s not Deep Creek, Canaan, Somerset, or even Frostburg. It’s fng Carroll county Maryland. 

Your point is correct but depending on where you were north of me, I get quite a bit more snow than Hanover just to my north in PA. Especially in marginal temp events because elevation goes down a lot just to my north.  But again your main point is correct during bad periods it can be bad here also.  One big difference here though is the ability to hold snowcover. I’m happy with a winter if I get at least a couple weeks of snowcover and up here that happens 80% of the time. 

[AdamHLG]

and people's wells! I can attest that the salt on the roads have contaminated my well at my house. 

Interesting. Im not sure how it is affecting my well, but ironically we need to add salt to our water to soften it. But that’s pure rock salt. Not sure what is in the actual chemicals they put on the road but I’m sure they’re not buying the big bags of rock salt at home depot like me.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

I think in 1977 it went below freezing for like 37 consecutive days 

Feb of 2015 here saw 28/28 below 32, 10/28 days the high was below 32, 8/28 were less than 10, 2/28 less than 0, 19/28 less than 20. The average temp for the month was 25.6 and that was 8.9 below normal, which is incredible for a monthly avg.

 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

This isn’t a traditional strong Nino. Maybe @osfan24was too aggressive and I wish to remain amicable here. But I see a lot of contradictory stances going around. Back in 2019 the excuse why we didn’t get the expected Nino was the ONI and SOI measures were actually neutral and those are more important.  It’s been generally agreed this isn’t a strong Nino in terms of how it’s affecting the hemispheric pattern. And even in 2016 we had 3 distinct windows with good treats. The 10 days in January when the hecs hit but there was a small precursor and we missed a threat after. A two week window in Feb with a couple small snow/ice events then a perfect track rainstorm that I had 9”. Then 2 weeks in March with a couple of minor events.  We were very unlucky not to get more snow that winter!  Lastly the last 7 years I’ve heard “we have to wait for a real Nino” so many times. Now we have one. We can’t afford it to just be ok. This has to be a great winter. It still can be. But we’ve suffered for 7 awful years. We’re facing a likely dreg winter next year. This has to be that one or two huge years we get each decade or it’s a fail given the situation. 

 

You are off on a tangent here. Maybe re-read some of the posts leading up to my reply to his post. 

[Ji]

its happening...split flow/HL blocking

Classic nino end game coming?

 

 

[Ji]

NAO and AO going negative!

 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Heisy said:

Op generally looks like ensembles now. The question happens few days after this time period. Does -epo pop, does the ridge heights migrate to AO territory etc. it’s what the weeklies do so that’s the hope



.

As long as the ridge isn’t in the 50/50 space we could snow fine in that look there in February. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

its happening...split flow/HL blocking

Classic nino end game coming?

 

 

Quite possibly. But weren't you just moaning about punting away weeks of winter this morning over this same look though?

Good to see you got your mind right.

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You are off on a tangent here. Maybe re-read some of the posts leading up to my reply to his post. 

I just did. I’ve been very sick and thought maybe I missed something. Now I’m just confused. I think perhaps people are interpreting the same posts differently.  I’m not trying to fight. I don’t have the energy. If people are saying where we are now is unacceptable that’s a little silly. We’ve done ok and we have what’s always supposed to be our best window coming up. We are still very much in the game to get a 30”+ winter. But I also disagree with some posts that seem to imply just eeking close to climo this season is “acceptable”.  @osfan24 had an accurate point wrt climo by enso. I gave the numbers. When I feel well enough to get to my computer I’ll post the chart but our snowfall is so heavily skewed towards Ninos that we need most of them to be big or our overall avg will collapse because we typically get well below avg in every Nina and neutral winter. But people complaining now are being premature.
 

 

[WxUSAF]

Nice when eps looks the best of the 3 ensemble systems. I was liking GEFS most the last couple days. All look maybe 24-72 hours away from BN 850 temps and troughing at the end of their runs. Surface temps have a longer lag, but I’ll remind folks we don’t need BN temps to get snow (although it can help).

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Nice when eps looks the best of the 3 ensemble systems. I was liking GEFS most the last couple days. All look maybe 24-72 hours away from BN 850 temps and troughing at the end of their runs. Surface temps have a longer lag, but I’ll remind folks we don’t need BN temps to get snow (although it can help).

the EPS and other ENS are following the weeklies to a T. get the STJ in the west to connect with the N Atl trough and all of a sudden, you’re in a very good pattern 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I just did. I’ve been very sick and thought maybe I missed something. Now I’m just confused. I think perhaps people are interpreting the same posts differently.  I’m not trying to fight. I don’t have the energy. If people are saying where we are now is unacceptable that’s a little silly. We’ve done ok and we have what’s always supposed to be our best window coming up. We are still very much in the game to get a 30”+ winter. But I also disagree with some posts that seem to imply just eeking close to climo this season is “acceptable”.  @osfan24 had an accurate point wrt climo by enso. I gave the numbers. When I feel well enough to get to my computer I’ll post the chart but our snowfall is so heavily skewed towards Ninos that we need most of them to be big or our overall avg will collapse because we typically get well below avg in every Nina and neutral winter. But people complaining now are being premature.
 

 

I figured something was up when we didn't hear from ya  But seriously, hope you feel better, man. Tis the season to be germy, unfortunately...rest up!

[frd]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the EPS and other ENS are following the weeklies to a T. get the STJ in the west to connect with the N Atl trough and all of a sudden, you’re in a very good pattern 

Does it still show S/Ws  flying around the base way out in La La Land ?  

I think once achieved this could be a rather active and cold pattern setting up.  May have legs too.  

[frd]

This looks much better recently.   

 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I just did. I’ve been very sick and thought maybe I missed something. Now I’m just confused. I think perhaps people are interpreting the same posts differently.  I’m not trying to fight. I don’t have the energy. If people are saying where we are now is unacceptable that’s a little silly. We’ve done ok and we have what’s always supposed to be our best window coming up. We are still very much in the game to get a 30”+ winter. But I also disagree with some posts that seem to imply just eeking close to climo this season is “acceptable”.  @osfan24 had an accurate point wrt climo by enso. I gave the numbers. When I feel well enough to get to my computer I’ll post the chart but our snowfall is so heavily skewed towards Ninos that we need most of them to be big or our overall avg will collapse because we typically get well below avg in every Nina and neutral winter. But people complaining now are being premature.
 

 

Hint: I never said anything about expectations for snow this winter because it's a Nino. He read into that/ had some preconceived notion or whatever the hell and went off on some tangent about certain people here being crazy for thinking average climo snowfall is ok this winter. HE HAD NO POINT. Still not sure why you replied with all this superfluous crap lol.

[notvirga!]

52 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Feb of 2015 here saw 28/28 below 32, 10/28 days the high was below 32, 8/28 were less than 10, 2/28 less than 0, 19/28 less than 20. The average temp for the month was 25.6 and that was 8.9 below normal, which is incredible for a monthly avg.

 

Jan to March of 2014 and Feb 2015 were incredibly cold out there. Saw a reading of -8 in Frederick county Va on my way to work one morning. I don’t recall if that was 2014 or 2015 but those two years had a lot of single digits and below zero readings. Probably the coldest winters since either 94 or 96. One more the temperature rose like 25 degrees between western Frederick county and eastern on my way into work (20 min drive). Single digits to 32x 

[Ji]

Quite possibly. But weren't you just moaning about punting away weeks of winter this morning over this same look though?
Good to see you got your mind right.

lol it’s still 2 weeks away

[weatherbook]

2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

I think in 1977 it went below freezing for like 37 consecutive days 

1977 was impressive because snow was on the ground at DCA for 24 consecutive days from three back-to-back snowstorms in early January that only dropped a total of 8.7" of snow. The snow didn't melt for weeks.  However, in 1961, there were 30 consecutive days of snow cover at DCA in late January and early February from six snowstorms that dropped 31.6" of snow throughout that period.  The winter of 1960-61 also had 16 consecutive days of snow cover at DCA in mid-to-late December which included a white Christmas.  What a great winter!

[dallen7908]

3 hours ago, Paleocene said:

Good to know. Do you have data on that? I was just reflecting this morning that our now 8+ day stretch of snow cover inside the beltway is anomalous in my 14-years of being here dataset.

I should probably put something together but I was just going with the following: 

[WEATHER53]

3 minutes ago, weatherbook said:

1977 was impressive because snow was on the ground at DCA for 24 consecutive days from three back-to-back snowstorms in early January that only dropped a total of 8.7" of snow. The snow didn't melt for weeks.  However, in 1961, there were 30 consecutive days of snow cover at DCA in late January and early February from six snowstorms that dropped 31.6" of snow throughout that period.  The winter of 1960-61 also had 16 consecutive days of snow cover at DCA in mid-to-late December which included a white Christmas.  What a great winter!

Great stuff

Thanks 

[dallen7908]

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I just did. I’ve been very sick and thought maybe I missed something. Now I’m just confused. I think perhaps people are interpreting the same posts differently.  I’m not trying to fight. I don’t have the energy. If people are saying where we are now is unacceptable that’s a little silly. We’ve done ok and we have what’s always supposed to be our best window coming up. We are still very much in the game to get a 30”+ winter. But I also disagree with some posts that seem to imply just eeking close to climo this season is “acceptable”.  @osfan24 had an accurate point wrt climo by enso. I gave the numbers. When I feel well enough to get to my computer I’ll post the chart but our snowfall is so heavily skewed towards Ninos that we need most of them to be big or our overall avg will collapse because we typically get well below avg in every Nina and neutral winter. But people complaining now are being premature.
 

 

I keep reminding myself that during El Niño years, February 8th is apparently the date when we (a mean of several Mid-Atlantic sites) are half through with our snow for the winter.