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Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3


WinterWxLuvr
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12 hours ago, CAPE said:

Lol another one.. Pacific jet extensions BAD. TORCH!! These fuckin guys.

really hard to buy that its like cold no where in the usa feed back error im betting throwing down 100 lol

 

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2 hours ago, Ji said:

I'd like a repeat of Feb 2003 please

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

When the pattern reloads, I think Mid Atl might just luck into something like PD II. Feb 12-14 2003 I was at Massanutten. Good times. They got 18 inches.

 

 

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Yeah that hurts...the cities will basically have two weeks to score again. And if we only START tracking on 8th? That leaves about 14 more days for a big one...ack.
Smh5a89177210a8e92791dbc149d74bf733.jpg

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

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9 hours ago, Ji said:


Punting 20 days of winter in our prime is super fun!

 

5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah that hurts...the cities will basically have two weeks to score again. And if we only START tracking on 8th? That leaves about 14 more days for a big one...ack.

Amazingly, neither of you seem to know where you live. We are just coming out of a 10 day period of legit winter that produced a moderate amount of snow in the lowlands. If we get another 10-14 days with a pattern that can deliver below avg temps with a favorable storm track, that is a pretty typical winter at this latitude outside of the western highlands and PSU land.

Also a reminder- These sort of posts belong in the Panic Room thread.

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59 minutes ago, CAPE said:

 

Amazingly, neither of you seem to know where you live. We are just coming out of a 10 day period of legit winter that produced a moderate amount of snow in the lowlands. If we get another 10-14 days with a pattern that can deliver below avg temps with a favorable storm track, that is a pretty typical winter at this latitude outside of the western highlands and PSU land.

Also a reminder- These sort of posts belong in the Panic Room thread.

But it’s not average for this type of nino. Some of you are crazy. The average winter is literally the average of the few really good winters that are Nino’s where we crush it and a lot of crappy other seasons that are Nina or neutral. Hitting climo in a nino is a failure. You suffer through the last seven years for this year.

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

But it’s not average for this type of nino. Some of you are crazy. The average winter is literally the average of the few really good winters that are Nino’s where we crush it and a lot of crappy other seasons that are Nina or neutral. Hitting climo in a nino is a failure. You suffer through the last seven years for this year.

How many weeks of actual winter weather did we have the last time there was a strong Nino? Be careful calling people crazy when you drop turd posts like this.

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14 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

But it’s not average for this type of nino. Some of you are crazy. The average winter is literally the average of the few really good winters that are Nino’s where we crush it and a lot of crappy other seasons that are Nina or neutral. Hitting climo in a nino is a failure. You suffer through the last seven years for this year.

Go look at the epic 09/10 winter and tell us how many weeks we actually had accumulating snow. 

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2 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Go look at the epic 09/10 winter and tell us how many weeks we actually had accumulating snow. 

Regardless of ENSO state, we are lucky to get more than 3 weeks total where it's both cold enough and there are storm chances. Where the fuck do these people think they live?

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

 

Amazingly, neither of you seem to know where you live. We are just coming out of a 10 day period of legit winter that produced a moderate amount of snow in the lowlands. If we get another 10-14 days with a pattern that can deliver below avg temps with a favorable storm track, that is a pretty typical winter at this latitude outside of the western highlands and PSU land.

Also a reminder- These sort of posts belong in the Panic Room thread.

I think Ji averages 2/3 of what psuhoffman gets

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2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I think Ji averages 2/3 of what psuhoffman gets

Which still isn’t much. Folks in this sub need to get it out of their heads that PSU lives in some winter wonderland. I spent over a decade living just north of him on the other side of the mason/dixon. Yes, it averages more snow than the metros. Yes, it does better in marginal events. And yes, it still deals with warm periods and skunker events just like everyone else in the M/A. It’s not Deep Creek, Canaan, Somerset, or even Frostburg. It’s fng Carroll county Maryland. 

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Amazingly, neither of you seem to know where you live. We are just coming out of a 10 day period of legit winter that produced a moderate amount of snow in the lowlands. If we get another 10-14 days with a pattern that can deliver below avg temps with a favorable storm track, that is a pretty typical winter at this latitude outside of the western highlands and PSU land.
Also a reminder- These sort of posts belong in the Panic Room thread.

I know where I live and it’s not Greenville sc. I should be getting 20-25 a year as default
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1 minute ago, snowfan said:

Which still isn’t much. Folks in this sub need to get it out of their heads that PSU lives in some winter wonderland. I spent over a decade living just north of him on the other side of the mason/dixon. Yes, it averages more snow than the metros. Yes, it does better in marginal events. And yes, it still deals with warm periods and skunker events just like everyone else in the M/A. It’s not Deep Creek, Canaan, Somerset, or even Frostburg. It’s fng Carroll county Maryland. 

I grew up south of Westminster at 850 feet elevation. Yeah snow climo is better overall than places SE of the Fall line, but I remember plenty of frustrating periods, and also being fringed lol.

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12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Regardless of ENSO state, we are lucky to get more than 3 weeks total where it's both cold enough and there are storm chances. Where the fuck do these people think they live?

Spot on. Unfortunately some in this forum saw Nino and were expecting EPIC snow totals.  

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I think many of us, including myself, have selective memories of our winters where we live. We tend to remember the snowiest highlights of each winter, while memories of warm/rain with brown ground fade away. This effectively magnifies how much snow we think we ought to see here.

Before y’all come at me, I say again that I’m guilty of this too

Plus kids here got 10 full days of sledding. I’m sure they’ll have good memories of this period.

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13 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Which still isn’t much. Folks in this sub need to get it out of their heads that PSU lives in some winter wonderland. I spent over a decade living just north of him on the other side of the mason/dixon. Yes, it averages more snow than the metros. Yes, it does better in marginal events. And yes, it still deals with warm periods and skunker events just like everyone else in the M/A. It’s not Deep Creek, Canaan, Somerset, or even Frostburg. It’s fng Carroll county Maryland. 

but but but, him getting snow is the sign we all need that the rest of us will. :rolleyes:

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2 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Spot on. Unfortunately some in this forum saw Nino and were expecting EPIC snow totals.  

Nino's give us a better chance of a big winter storm. That's it. And if we get a 2 week period in Feb with a favorable pattern, it may very well happen.

Some folks should just stay out of the discussion threads.

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I've lived here my entire 45 year life. The coldest winters consists of a week or 2 period of cold. 2-3 weeks average. Then another period of cold for a week or so. That's it lol. If we get another week like we just had. This will be an epic winter imo. We even had a couple cool wind events and flooders. I'm feel satisfied this morning. I'm ok with 2-3 weeks of normal weather. If Feb produces another storm or cold white period, winter 23-24 will be the best winter since 2010. 2010 btw wasn't cold at all. I had 30" of snow on the ground and temps around 50 every day. The February period was pretty epic. It lasted a few days. 

Rant over.

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2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I've lived here my entire 45 year life. The coldest winters consists of a week or 2 period of cold. 2-3 weeks average. Then another period of cold for a week or so. That's it lol. If we get another week like we just had. This will be an epic winter imo. We even had a couple cool wind events and flooders. I'm feel satisfied this morning. I'm ok with 2-3 weeks of normal weather. If Feb produces another storm or cold white period, winter 23-24 will be the best winter since 2010. 2010 btw wasn't cold at all. I had 30" of snow on the ground and temps around 50 every day. The February period was pretty epic. It lasted a few days. 

Rant over.

2009-10 was once in a lifetime. Modoki Nino and sustained strong HL blocking. It was cold enough every time it needed to be.

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10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

2009-10 was once in a lifetime. Modoki Nino and sustained strong HL blocking. It was cold enough every time it needed to be.

Definitely once in a lifetime here swamplands. February was insanity. The blizzard that followed the GOAT storm was epic that morning. I felt like I was in Lake Placid, NY. That was a beautiful and powerful display of winter power. 

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1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

Definitely once in a lifetime here swamplands. February was insanity. The blizzard that followed the GOAT storm was epic that morning. I felt like I was in Lake Placid, NY. That was a beautiful and powerful display of winter power. 

Those were epic storms.  My buddy and i drove to Whitetail after the second Feb storm and it was closed.  We then drove the back way to Liberty and got some good runs in.  The way home was wild, crazy west winds and insane drifting and blowing snow on 15 south.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

How many weeks of actual winter weather did we have the last time there was a strong Nino? Be careful calling people crazy when you drop turd posts like this.

Like one. But we were unlucky, and we still got a HECS, which we still could get! But that isn’t relevant to the point I am making, which has nothing to do with whether or not I think this season will end up great or a dud or anywhere in between.

My point was that I am confused that some posters seem to think reaching climo in a Nino is good and it’s not. If we swing and miss on Nino’s, or even if we end up reaching climo in them, your average seasonal snowfall is going to be basically cut in half. And yes, sometimes a Nino doesn’t work out and you get screwed. But you don’t want that becoming a pattern. So let’s say BWI averages 20 a year and reaches 20 this year. Some people will think that’s great. It’s actually pretty bad and if it continues, BWI’s real average is going to drop to like 10 inches a year. Might even be less than that. Congrats, you are now Charlotte!

2009-2010 was amazing. I’d love to see it again even though it was once in a lifetime. But we don’t need 2009-2010 to have a successful Nino. No one is saying we need 100 inches of snow. But do we need something like 2003? Yeah, we do.

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