CAPE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 12z GEFS suggesting the h5 pattern becomes serviceable sooner- western trough progressing eastward under the ridge and indications of NA wave breaks initiating a -NAO. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Most here would take a second mortgage if it meant cold and snow. Snow yes. But if dry, might as well be warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, CAPE said: 12z GEFS suggesting the h5 pattern becomes serviceable sooner- western trough progressive eastward under the ridge and indications of NA wave breaks initiating a -NAO. Good. That’s the sign I was looking for. This is the opposite of a can kick 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, Heisy said: End of cmc ensembles. Ridge has rolled through and poleward, we’re building in the right places here and getting ready to rock and roll imo Hopefully it's a loading pattern for a -NAO.. The Pacific looks good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 That's a lot of rain on the 12z GFS.. too bad it won't be colder. STJ appears to be healthy and well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 58 minutes ago, Ji said: best GFS run in a long time. Has a 384 hour MECS developing What could go wrong? Lets plan for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: First Webb and now Heisy? Holy balls. My hunch is we are seeing the antithesis of a can kick across guidance. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z GEFS suggesting the h5 pattern becomes serviceable sooner- western trough progressive eastward under the ridge and indications of NA wave breaks initiating a -NAO. the agreement on all ensembles as well as extended guidance is pretty remarkable. slip that excess momentum under the Canadian ridge and connect it with the N Atl trough and BANG textbook Aleutian Low, too 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the agreement on all ensembles as well as extended guidance is pretty remarkable. slip that excess momentum under the Canadian ridge and connect it with the N Atl trough and BANG textbook Aleutian Low, too Yeah it seems to be in alignment with where the extended tools take the pattern going forward- maybe a little sooner. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, CAPE said: Yeah it seems to be in alignment with where the extended tools take the pattern going forward- maybe a little sooner. lends a lot more credence to the Weeklies when all of the ENS are playing out in the same way it's quite similar to the last jet extension that we saw, but this time we'll have a strong Aleutian low to allow for strong shortwaves to enter the flow... sign me up 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said: better get used to the Good Webber this year. Unsufferable the next few years lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Quote Darksharkwx quoting Eric Webb It's not really a jet extension though.. The AO is like +3 and NAO +2.. They just haven't been impacting the pattern as much lately (NAO/AO), and now there are real 1st wave effects. It just picked up a little correlation... but it's not some rogue/random wave that is an extension of +pna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said: LOL. He is the one who has been pushing the extended Pacific jet = Pac puke = doom narrative and making weenies panic every time they see those words. He probably realizes he won't be able to support that crap this time. Time to shift the goalposts! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It's not realy a jet extension though.. The AO is like +3 and NAO +2.. They just haven't been impacting the pattern as much lately (NAO/AO), and now there are real 1st wave effects. It just picked up a little correlation... but it's not some rogue/random wave that is an extension of +pna. Chuck... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It's not realy a jet extension though.. The AO is like +3 and NAO +2.. They just haven't been impacting the pattern as much lately (NAO/AO), and now there are real 1st wave effects. It just picked up a little correlation... but it's not some rogue/random wave that is an extension of +pna. charles this is a massive 230kt jet extension 1 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Chuck... The ridging is from +NAO.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: charles this is a massive 230kt jet extension Correlates with a SE trough though.. NW ridge. It's under a +PNA low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: charles this is a massive 230kt jet extension Beautiful split flow right there, stronger branch south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said: Would you rent out your dazzling self???? I would whore myself out for us to get snow on snow and a HECS, without hesitation 1 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, Ji said: best GFS run in a long time. Has a 384 hour MECS developing I hope you are just joking. I sincerely don't mean any harm to anybody here, but using 240+ models....I dunno man 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Chuck... I was going to, but you handled it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: charles this is a massive 230kt jet extension looks like the I-95 express lanes for trans-pacific flights (obviously uni-directional) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I would whore myself out for us to get snow on snow and a HECS, without hesitation 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: charles this is a massive 230kt jet extension So would that mean that SoCal can stop recycling their own pee into drinking water? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I feel better about winter since Judah just canceled ithttps://x.com/judah47/status/1749430822120133107?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Don't know why you guys think you can claim anything is true.. fast must mean right. here, this was a jet extension too. https://ibb.co/4ZStGKw oooo look at the fancy jet extension. bright colors https://ibb.co/vVrZZ8X 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, Ji said: I feel better about winter since Judah just canceled ithttps://x.com/judah47/status/1749430822120133107?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA He is still trying to convince himself(and others) his postulation is valid, despite so much failure to connect those dots. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, Ji said: I feel better about winter since Judah just canceled ithttps://x.com/judah47/status/1749430822120133107?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA LOL. Second time I believe. Don't tell @CAPE Poor Judah, weather does not exsist in a vacum. THE PV and the HL should become more favorable again with a decent Pac and plenty of threats to track I am very excited myself for the period Feb 10 th to March 10 th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 So the way it is now we will know by early Saturday what Sunday will bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, Ji said: I feel better about winter since Judah just canceled ithttps://x.com/judah47/status/1749430822120133107?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA Models do have the 10mb PV going negative. That correlates at +0day with +AO, but this Winter is strong -QBO and El Nino, which verifies 70/30 to 10mb warming, so maybe it won't be too bad longer run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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