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Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, CAPE said:

12z GEFS suggesting the h5 pattern becomes serviceable sooner- western trough progressive eastward under the ridge and indications of NA wave breaks initiating a -NAO.

1707134400-whmePwr99BU.png

Good. That’s the sign I was looking for. This is the opposite of a can kick

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z GEFS suggesting the h5 pattern becomes serviceable sooner- western trough progressive eastward under the ridge and indications of NA wave breaks initiating a -NAO.

1707134400-whmePwr99BU.png

the agreement on all ensembles as well as extended guidance is pretty remarkable. slip that excess momentum under the Canadian ridge and connect it with the N Atl trough and BANG

textbook Aleutian Low, too

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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the agreement on all ensembles as well as extended guidance is pretty remarkable. slip that excess momentum under the Canadian ridge and connect it with the N Atl trough and BANG

textbook Aleutian Low, too

Yeah it seems to be in alignment with where the extended tools take the pattern going forward- maybe a little sooner.

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Just now, CAPE said:

Yeah it seems to be in alignment with where the extended tools take the pattern going forward- maybe a little sooner.

lends a lot more credence to the Weeklies when all of the ENS are playing out in the same way

it's quite similar to the last jet extension that we saw, but this time we'll have a strong Aleutian low to allow for strong shortwaves to enter the flow... sign me up

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Quote

Darksharkwx quoting Eric Webb

It's not really a jet extension though.. The AO is like +3 and NAO +2.. They just haven't been impacting the pattern as much lately (NAO/AO), and now there are real 1st wave effects. It just picked up a little correlation... but it's not some rogue/random wave that is an extension of +pna. 

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1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said:

 

LOL. He is the one who has been pushing the extended Pacific  jet = Pac puke = doom narrative and making weenies panic every time they see those words. He probably realizes he won't be able to support that crap this time. Time to shift the goalposts!

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2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's not realy a jet extension though.. The AO is like +3 and NAO +2.. They just haven't been impacting the pattern as much lately (NAO/AO), and now there are real 1st wave effects. It just picked up a little correlation... but it's not some rogue/random wave that is an extension of +pna. 

Chuck...

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1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's not realy a jet extension though.. The AO is like +3 and NAO +2.. They just haven't been impacting the pattern as much lately (NAO/AO), and now there are real 1st wave effects. It just picked up a little correlation... but it's not some rogue/random wave that is an extension of +pna. 

charles this is a massive 230kt jet extension

gfs-deterministic-npac_wide-z200_speed-6421600.thumb.png.bf0c4ae6ac7f50ddeedd777e9b9854cf.png

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:

I feel better about winter since Judah just canceled it

https://x.com/judah47/status/1749430822120133107?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA

LOL.  Second time I believe.    Don't tell @CAPE     Poor Judah,  weather does not exsist in a vacum.  THE PV and the HL should become more favorable again with a decent Pac and plenty of threats to track 

I am very excited myself for the period Feb 10 th to March 10 th.  

 

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8 minutes ago, Ji said:

I feel better about winter since Judah just canceled it

https://x.com/judah47/status/1749430822120133107?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA

Models do have the 10mb PV going negative. That correlates at +0day with +AO, but this Winter is strong -QBO and El Nino, which verifies 70/30 to 10mb warming, so maybe it won't be too bad longer run. 

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