psuhoffman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Nina’s since 2000 2/10 above normal. Which is a slightly better rate than neutrals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Weeklies stay the course today 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Weeklies stay the course today looks pretty nice 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 7 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: looks pretty nice Looks like a transitional week feb 5-12 (similar to first 10 days of Jan) and then feb 12 and onwards we get our chances i do wish it gets moved up even a few days though, we don’t want this thaw running the clock out on us 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Wanted to illustrate why the jet extension is the loading pattern for some of our best snow. no can kick the progression is really showing at the end of the ensembles today. day 15 eps as the jet extension pulls back it leads to our best snow patters. Once A and B split it sets off the chain reaction. The key is getting the vortex out of Alaska. That’s step one. That’s happening here. Once that happens the wave breaking from B and C starts to migrate the N American ridge north. Wave breaking from A also lets the epo ridge go up over the top of B which will inject cold and allow B to press east and fill the vacuum in the flow under the ridge as it lifts north. This is exactly what happened in January 2010 that lead to snowmageddon. It’s a common progression. We don’t always take advantage to the level of 2010 but it usually leads to a very good pattern. 20 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Webberweather’s comments about this -EPS looks like it's getting ready to setup a big -NAO after the end of the run. The very active/negatively tilted & equatorward-displaced storm track in/around N America is a big clue we're about to get a west-based -NAO. 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Wanted to illustrate why the jet extension is the loading pattern for some of our best snow. no can kick the progression is really showing at the end of the ensembles today. day 15 eps as the jet extension pulls back it leads to our best snow patters. Once A and B split it sets off the chain reaction. The key is getting the vortex out of Alaska. That’s step one. That’s happening here. Once that happens the wave breaking from B and C starts to migrate the N American ridge north. It also lets the epo ridge go up over the top of B which will inject cold and allow B to press east and fill the vacuum in the flow under the ridge as it lifts north. This is exactly what happened in January 2010 that lead to snowmageddon. It’s a common progression. We don’t always take advantage to the level of 2010 but it usually leads to a very good pattern. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Prestige Worldwide said: Webberweather’s comments about this -EPS looks like it's getting ready to setup a big -NAO after the end of the run. It was 2-3 days from starting to look very good. We might need a week to get cold after though. If the progression continues as the pace shown I’d expect us to be tracking threats around Feb 12 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Neutrals since 2000 have pretty bad. 5/6 below normal snow. Maybe just a miracle....just a fucking miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 21 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: looks pretty nice Dunno man...the weeklies 'smiley face pattern' hasn't produced yet for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Dunno man...the weeklies 'smiley face pattern' hasn't produced yet for us. a good portion of the MA is AN on the year. i would say it has 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 17 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Looks like a transitional week feb 5-12 (similar to first 10 days of Jan) and then feb 12 and onwards we get our chances i do wish it gets moved up even a few days though, we don’t want this thaw running the clock out on us I mean, if there is a good side to all of this, most of us in this sub are here discussing this crud while currently being under a snowpack and temps BN. So, there's that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It was 2-3 days from starting to look very good. We might need a week to get cold after though. If the progression continues as the pace shown I’d expect us to be tracking threats around Feb 12 I haven't backed off of the PD range for a big hit....but the road to victory is going to require alot of patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I move that from here on we call Hadleys Badleys...they don't deserve our respect, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Wanted to illustrate why the jet extension is the loading pattern for some of our best snow. no can kick the progression is really showing at the end of the ensembles today. day 15 eps as the jet extension pulls back it leads to our best snow patters. Once A and B split it sets off the chain reaction. The key is getting the vortex out of Alaska. That’s step one. That’s happening here. Once that happens the wave breaking from B and C starts to migrate the N American ridge north. Wave breaking from A also lets the epo ridge go up over the top of B which will inject cold and allow B to press east and fill the vacuum in the flow under the ridge as it lifts north. This is exactly what happened in January 2010 that lead to snowmageddon. It’s a common progression. We don’t always take advantage to the level of 2010 but it usually leads to a very good pattern. the difference between the advertised pattern and the one that we just had is the presence of a large GoA / Aleutian low that allows for potent southern stream shortwaves to enter the flow. the previous pattern pretty much shut off the mechanism for those larger waves 9 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I move that from here on we call Hadleys Badleys...they don't deserve our respect, lol Assuming the "Hadley cell jet steroid" hypothesis is correct (seems very plausible but years of research would be needed and not sure any PHD candidates are working on it), getting mad at the Hadley cell for Pac Puke is like force-feeding your kid caffeine and then getting mad when they act wild. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 If we get a repeat of this past week in mid Feb but with slightly more snow then most of the region will be AN for the seasonal average regardless of how the remainder of Feb and March goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Assuming the "Hadley cell jet steroid" hypothesis is correct (seems very plausible but years of research would be needed and not sure any PHD candidates are working on it), getting mad at the Hadley cell for Pac Puke is like force-feeding your kid caffeine and then getting mad when they act wild. Not sure I follow, lol If the hypothesis is correct then yeah they're causing the problem are they not? Making them public snow enemy No. 1 (unless the elephant is ultimately causing them instead) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: (unless the elephant is ultimately causing them instead) I mean PSU said that a pool of warmer than average water in Indonesia is causing the Hadley Cell to expand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I mean PSU said that a pool of warmer than average water in Indonesia is causing the Hadley Cell to expand. Ah, I didn't see that part (I've been turning site blocker on and off in disgust all afternoon, lol) Alright then...warm water in Indonesia...BOOOOO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Since I posted the good look on the Euro Weeklies at 9:22 Saturday morning, others have became interested and no experts have pooh-poohed the synoptics. With the new run today, no real changes. Anytime after Feb. 10 - March 10 should bring good times for snow-lovers if verification is realized. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, stormy said: Since I posted the good look on the Euro Weeklies at 9:22 Saturday morning, others have became interested and no experts have pooh-poohed the synoptics. With the new run today, no real changes. Anytime after Feb. 10 - March 10 should bring good times for snow-lovers if verification is realized. If it’s this time next week and no can kicking has occurred would that be a good enough sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 13 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: If it’s this time next week and no can kicking has occurred would that be a good enough sign? If the projected pattern repeats for the next week, probability of verification certainly increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 42 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I mean PSU said that a pool of warmer than average water in Indonesia is causing the Hadley Cell to expand. Then drop some 10# blocks of ice in that shit pool. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 52 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Not sure I follow, lol If the hypothesis is correct then yeah they're causing the problem are they not? Making them public snow enemy No. 1 (unless the elephant is ultimately causing them instead) The hypothesis is that the hadley cell expansion is an effect of...you know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 We've had a moderate Stratosphere warming for the last 7 days.. It even maxed out >2,000, which is pretty strong. https://ibb.co/kXmPbht At this time of the year, 10mb warming correlates to -NAO in +20 days about 2/3 times. That puts it at Feb 2-10. LR models don't have the NAO negative right now Feb 2-6, so we'll see. (The correlation isn't perfect it could range +5-10 days.) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: the difference between the advertised pattern and the one that we just had is the presence of a large GoA / Aleutian low that allows for potent southern stream shortwaves to enter the flow. the previous pattern pretty much shut off the mechanism for those larger waves It hasn't happened so far this in this El Nino.. maybe the February correlation will hold. I think an El Nino should favor +PNA/-NPH (North Pacific High) all times of the Winter, but the "Dec warm" thing held this year so maybe Feb will too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 29 minutes ago, cbmclean said: The hypothesis is that the hadley cell expansion is an effect of...you know. I don't think so.. https://ibb.co/Xk3MNZC It seems to be an effect of the Pacific Ocean vs Global warming, unless you argue that more La Nina's occur in Global warming.. what I always heard about it in the 1990s was that more El Nino's would be the effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 17 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I don't think so.. https://ibb.co/Xk3MNZC It seems to be an effect of the Pacific Ocean vs Global warming, unless you argue that more La Nina's occur in Global warming.. what I always heard about it in the 1990s was that more El Nino's would be the effect. It will be interesting to see how much of a recovery we get, if any, once the PDO flips back. But even then I'm not sure how much impact the PDO has on the prevalence of Pac Puke as opposed to -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: It will be interesting to see how much of a recovery we get, if any, once the PDO flips back. But even then I'm not sure how much impact the PDO has on the prevalence of Pac Puke as opposed to -PNA. Yeah, if you had to say chicken and egg though, I would say the La Nina patterns are coming first, then -PDO is resulting from the effected wave. https://ibb.co/TmBkw1S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 WB 18Z GEFS. Still keeping an eye on late next weekend...not dead yet... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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