DDweatherman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 5 minutes ago, WVclimo said: At BWI, just in the past decade: March 20-21, 2018 - 4.9” March 5, 2015 - 6.2” March 16-17, 2014 - 8.1” Yeah, March has been good to us several times since 2010. That St. Patty's day snow to cap off 2014 was an awesome event. @psuhoffmancan you help me find the obs thread for that one? And didn't it actually snow again after SPD or am I thinking of 2015? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Same. Maybe not a MECS but something might sneak up on us like this week hasThis was was not sneaky. Those threats were seen a while out. In fact….we didn’t really maximize the potoential of this window 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, Ji said: This was was not sneaky. Those threats were seen a while out. In fact….we didn’t really maximize the potoential of this window Relative to our area and climo, we did B+ at worst. But I'd definitely agree it wasn't maximized. The longwave setup heading into late this past week and this weekend could have absolutely produced a KU storm, but they're rare for a reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 This looks like 72-73 analoghttps://ibb.co/FDvpj32 A positive is, that can sometimes be a loading pattern for -NAO +time. Big El Nino's with net cold water in the subsurface support that map believe it or not. https://ibb.co/gwTQ69nThe south be….where is my 72-73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, WVclimo said: At BWI, just in the past decade: March 20-21, 2018 - 4.9” March 5, 2015 - 6.2” March 16-17, 2014 - 8.1” It's still rather rare. And who knows if that still works now. 2014 & 2015 were the last time... P.S. Where did you get the data for specific storms those years? (I have a list of the big ones and overall seasonal totals...but not the smaller ones) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Yeah, March has been good to us several times since 2010. That St. Patty's day snow to cap off 2014 was an awesome event. @psuhoffmancan you help me find the obs thread for that one? And didn't it actually snow again after SPD or am I thinking of 2015? There was another event very late march 2014 where a deform at the end of a rainstorm flipped to snow. Dropped 8” here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, Ji said: This was was not sneaky. Those threats were seen a while out. In fact….we didn’t really maximize the potoential of this window How far out? 8-9 days if I remember correctly? Further back, guidance was showing a torch mid month 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: It's still rather rare. And who knows if that still works now. 2014 & 2015 were the last time... P.S. Where did you get the data for specific storms those years? (I have a list of the big ones and overall seasonal totals...but not the smaller ones) http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu you can waste a lot of time in there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: How far out? 8-9 days if I remember correctly? Further back, guidance was showing a torch mid month I think the guidance actually targeted this week from way way out. There was a torch in front of it which was never as bad as they indicated but we did get the 2 cutters. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: It's still rather rare. And who knows if that still works now. 2014 & 2015 were the last time... P.S. Where did you get the data for specific storms those years? (I have a list of the big ones and overall seasonal totals...but not the smaller ones) The events were from memory. Just checked the totals here. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=lwx NOW data for any month you want to check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 34 minutes ago, Ji said: The south be….where is my 72-73 A little more -PNA this time yeah.. this El Nino is not really acting strong in the upper latitudes. We've been missing the N. Pacific low. We do though have the most equilateral convection all time https://ibb.co/9tN0Vyv Most opposite year on satellite record is 95-96 https://ibb.co/zN1pNYJ I rolled forward both states, and found a heavy +warm bias for enhanced convection, the globe was up to 40-50dm higher at 500mb for the next year (vs -40 to -50dm in neg composite).. means we can expect a mild year coming. Analog years were split in time so there's little global warming skew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 How far out? 8-9 days if I remember correctly? Further back, guidance was showing a torch mid monthI don’t remember a mid month torch. The pattern had just changed and the nao was very negative and people were talking about a heather A event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 5 minutes ago, Ji said: I don’t remember a mid month torch. The pattern had just changed and the nao was very negative and people were talking about a heather A event People...lol...you mean Ralph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Doesn't seem like a bad look at peak climo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 47 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: 4-5 weeks? Perhaps for n & w folks...more like 2-3 for the beltway where people actually live Once March comes it's pretty much done here, unfortunately (can get a little slop but I can remember few warning snows in March) March 2014. Dale City got 8 inches on the 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 8 minutes ago, Ji said: I don’t remember a mid month torch. The pattern had just changed and the nao was very negative and people were talking about a heather A event GFS showed 60s for the 13th, it was still AN but the anomaly got walked back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Don’t you live over 1000 feet? He lives in Baltimore. I'm at 1300 ft. though there are 1550' elevations no more than a mile away. I'm looking at 3000 ft. elevations in the Blue Ridge about 4 miles to my east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 12 minutes ago, peribonca said: Doesn't seem like a bad look at peak climo. Too bad it's shorts weather lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 42 minutes ago, Ji said: we didn’t really maximize the potoential of this window I disagree. 6 Snow events in two weeks with over a foot of accums ranks right up there with the best January's. We just never got a vigorous vort or a phase that completely bombed for us at our latitude. But imo its been a really good January so far. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GEFS, still watching the 30th... On the 28th/29th we will know. The pattern now dictates to the models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Latest Euro Weeklies get a better sustained Winter pattern going again by the week of the 7th to 14th of February. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I really look forward to celebrating another GUYS FOLKS day again this winter!! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The latest GEFS Extended & Euro Weeklies both have a good look centered on President’s Day week, just in time hopefully for our chance at PD3… 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 once the jet retracts we probs see the most favorable pattern of this winter yet 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Latest Euro Weeklies continue the good looking pattern in late February through the end of the run in the beginning of March. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 This is the last single day snapshot on the end of the Euro Weeklies on day 46. It looks like this would keep the good times rolling in week 2 of March if the run continued. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 hours ago, clskinsfan said: The longwave pattern has been better in early March lately for some reason. Warmer ocean? Maybe? It's the only thing I keep returning to if climate has shifted. Dec is awful close to a fall month here anyways and that goes back to my birth lol. Long term cycles are weird though. Just when you think something is figured out... oops. Kinda like Judah and his Siberia snowcover scam lol. Warmer oceans obviously screw with the front side of winter. That's simple to understand. How that could change March gets muddy. It does seem winters have moved forward a couple weeks on the calender compared to 15 years ago. Idk. I just want it to snow dammit 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The extended guidance starts the transition around Feb 7. We have a transitional week to get to good from there. But we should start to see that process at the end of the ensembles within the next 72 hours. I’d not I’ll start to get a little nervous about a can kick which we can’t afford given the clock. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 So far no can kick. Guidance the last 48 hours has slightly sped up the pattern progression by a day or two. 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Dt says the 30th won’t happen so you what that means 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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