Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3

[Bob Chill]

10 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, definitely make it alot easier to handle. Really rooting for at least a 1-4 inch event before then. To add to your positivity , 2015 was basically snowless until near Valentine's Day. 

2015 was only snowless south of the Mason Dixon. North of there got destroyed and there was a ton of arctic air floating around east of the MS River. Very different personality to this winter in general. I haven't liked any analogs popping up for early Feb. I'd like to see that change sooner rather than later but I have zero control of that lol

ETA: I'm only skeptical of some big long duration turnaround that destroys the coast. Mulitple opportunities and future snowfall are both very likely in the coming 6 weeks. Some people may not like the type though lol hahaha

[Daniel Boone]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

2015 was only snowless south of the Mason Dixon. North of there got destroyed and there was a ton of arctic air floating around east of the MS River. Very different personality to this winter in general. I haven't liked any analogs popping up for early Feb. I'd like to see that change sooner rather than later but I have zero control of that lol

Yeah. Back here in far SWVA we picked up over 40 inches in a 3 week period starting Feb. 13. 

  That was the +TNH -EPO + NAO oddity. Record low of -20 on Feb. 20 th here. 

[osfan24]

32 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

GFS is pretty close for next Sunday. That is a stout HP over the top. Better timing and its a good storm. 

Ravens snow game for AFC title?!?!?

[osfan24]

I know it’s just one run of one OP and it’s an OP, but man, unless we fluke into next Sunday. It looks really, really ugly. Like shut the blinds until at least mid February.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah. Back here in far SWVA we picked up over 40 inches in a 3 week period starting Feb. 13. 

I threw an edit in my last post. I dont want to come off like I'm canceling anything because I'm most certainly not. And I strongly believe winter will make a return. But man there were some high expectations going into this one. It would be a let down for me if @WxUSAFs guess happens and half the forum walks away sour lol. His guess is basically identical to what I'm thinking and I'd be more surprised if we didn't get another warned event. Just maybe not widespread 1-2'. 

The one wildcard in my head is March. For many years I expected March to be a spring month and it was right. That's changed. Maybe just cycles in cycles or maybe because oceans are warmer and it shifts climate bookends. Not sure but lately March has been better than many Dec/Jan's. March ninos are generally bad here but the front half of March can produce big storms. Maybe big storm window ends up there instead of Feb. We'll see

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Maybe big storm window ends up there instead of Feb

The longwave pattern has been better in early March lately for some reason. Warmer ocean?

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I threw an edit in my last post. I dont want to come off like I'm canceling anything because I'm most certainly not. And I strongly believe winter will make a return. But man there were some high expectations going into this one. It would be a let down for me if @WxUSAFs guess happens and half the forum walks away sour lol. His guess is basically identical to what I'm thinking and I'd be more surprised if we didn't get another warned event. Just maybe not widespread 1-2'. 

The one wildcard in my head is March. For many years I expected March to be a spring month and it was right. That's changed. Maybe just cycles in cycles or maybe because oceans are warmer and it shifts climate bookends. Not sure but lately March has been better than many Dec/Jan's. March ninos are generally bad here but the front half of March can produce big storms. Maybe big storm window ends up there instead of Feb. We'll see

That would be hard to swallow. This week has been fun between the two overperformers and the cold surrounding it, making it feel like deep winter. Plus, the squall day before all of it also seemed to overperform.

But outside of that and the one dusting in December, assuming nothing happens next Sunday, which is an extreme long shot, this winter has to be like a D or D+ given expectations, especially now that it looks like we might have nothing to even track until at least mid February. It basically forces us a huge heater over the final month to have a chance for this to meet expectations. Of course, one HECS could do it, but I keep hearing certain people constantly say the upcoming pattern is amazing, hyping up HECS and everything else and not only hasn’t it happened, but it really hasn’t been remotely close.

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I know it’s just one run of one OP and it’s an OP, but man, unless we fluke into next Sunday. It looks really, really ugly. Like shut the blinds until at least mid February.

Actually the very end of the gfs was only a few days from a better pattern. It was evolving the way we want at the end. The first week of Feb is likely toast. Accept it. If we can get out by Feb 10 it’s a win. Gfs was heading that way. 

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Actually the very end of the gfs was only a few days from a better pattern. It was evolving the way we want at the end. The first week of Feb is likely toast. Accept it. If we can get out by Feb 10 it’s a win. Gfs was heading that way. 

If we can get to it by Feb 10, I guess that gives us 4-5 weeks to make things happen. But will it be like what happened in January where it then took weeks to get the cold necessary to actually snow? We need the pattern to set in quickly because, on top of the need for cold, we also usually need a few chances before we actually connect. We usually score on the backend of the good pattern, not at the start or even that much in the middle.

[Jebman]

40 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, definitely make it alot easier to handle. Really rooting for at least a 1-4 inch event before then. To add to your positivity , 2015 was basically snowless until near Valentine's Day. 

2015 was the winter the SNE had all those SWFE events. They were on a kind of heater. SWFE's don't help us much down here in the Mid Atlantic. Then things changed and we got snow in mid Feb.

[Jebman]

25 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

That would be hard to swallow. This week has been fun between the two overperformers and the cold surrounding it, making it feel like deep winter. Plus, the squall day before all of it also seemed to overperform.

But outside of that and the one dusting in December, assuming nothing happens next Sunday, which is an extreme long shot, this winter has to be like a D or D+ given expectations, especially now that it looks like we might have nothing to even track until at least mid February. It basically forces us a huge heater over the final month to have a chance for this to meet expectations. Of course, one HECS could do it, but I keep hearing certain people constantly say the upcoming pattern is amazing, hyping up HECS and everything else and not only hasn’t it happened, but it really hasn’t been remotely close.

Guilty. As. Charged.

All I ever wanted was to see the entire sub flying for pure joy over a crazy big snow that just wanted to do nothing but snow, generating eternal backbuilding and BECS-level accumulations. I want you guys to get so demolished that you BEG me to come up there and help dig you out of deep snow.

[clskinsfan]

14 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

If we can get to it by Feb 10, I guess that gives us 4-5 weeks to make things happen. But will it be like what happened in January where it then took weeks to get the cold necessary to actually snow? We need the pattern to set in quickly because, on top of the need for cold, we also usually need a few chances before we actually connect. We usually score on the backend of the good pattern, not at the start or even that much in the middle.

The GFS is keeping enough cold air to tap on this side of the hemisphere. It is different from the past few winters where it all got trapped on the other side. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

32 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

It's still above freezing in Ontario's cottage country though...

[87storms]

Having a respite from a wintry week is extremely normal here.  We're not wall to wall like Montana.  What's nice is the table has been set...we're not scrounging for a minor event anymore.  We've got 2 of those in the bag including some localized stat padders.  Now, it's just a matter of whether February delivers.  I agree that chasing a mecs is rational given the higher pwats that usually arrive.  I'm not a hecs chaser...those are too uncommon...when it happens, it happens.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS, still watching the 30th...

[JenkinsJinkies]

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEFS, still watching the 30th...

Wow and the rain snow line is well to our south.

[Ji]

Wow and the rain snow line is well to our south.

Those maps never seem to line up with snow charts

Maybe tomorrow’s run?

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I threw an edit in my last post. I dont want to come off like I'm canceling anything because I'm most certainly not. And I strongly believe winter will make a return. But man there were some high expectations going into this one. It would be a let down for me if @WxUSAFs guess happens and half the forum walks away sour lol. His guess is basically identical to what I'm thinking and I'd be more surprised if we didn't get another warned event. Just maybe not widespread 1-2'. 

The one wildcard in my head is March. For many years I expected March to be a spring month and it was right. That's changed. Maybe just cycles in cycles or maybe because oceans are warmer and it shifts climate bookends. Not sure but lately March has been better than many Dec/Jan's. March ninos are generally bad here but the front half of March can produce big storms. Maybe big storm window ends up there instead of Feb. We'll see

Personally, I'd rather not wait for March to produce a big storm--that has literally only happened for the city maybe 3 times in 120 years. Only N & W have a legit chance at a foot in March. And see, if we were not coming off the worst stretch in our history, not having a big dog in 8 years, a winter where we get what we got this winter, a slop 1-4" event or tow and maybe another warning event to get us to 20" wouldn't be so bad--it would actually be quite solid for this day and age.

The problem is...if a big one doesn't happen this winter, with la nina progged to come back next year,n we could be waiting at LEAST another 2-3 years. We NEED it to happen this winter...which is why the news of a smaller Feb window is disappointing. To go a decade without a 1-2 footer would be a new snow low even for here--as previously at least every 4 or 6-7 years we'd get one.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

If we can get to it by Feb 10, I guess that gives us 4-5 weeks to make things happen. But will it be like what happened in January where it then took weeks to get the cold necessary to actually snow? We need the pattern to set in quickly because, on top of the need for cold, we also usually need a few chances before we actually connect. We usually score on the backend of the good pattern, not at the start or even that much in the middle.

4-5 weeks? Perhaps for n & w folks...more like 2-3 for the beltway where people actually live  Once March comes it's pretty much done here, unfortunately (can get a little slop but I can remember few warning snows in March)

[JenkinsJinkies]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Those maps never seem to line up with snow charts

Maybe tomorrow’s run?

Maybe wait another week when the 30th is within 72 hours? Of course with the upcoming pattern watch it become a perfect track rain storm...

[WinterWxLuvr]

My WAG is we won’t be waiting until mid Feb for a snow chance. Thinking next 10 days provides another chance

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This looks like 72-73 analog

https://ibb.co/FDvpj32

A positive is, that can sometimes be a loading pattern for -NAO +time. 

Big El Nino's with net cold water in the subsurface support that map believe it or not. 

https://ibb.co/gwTQ69n

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

My WAG is we won’t be waiting until mid Feb for a snow chance. Thinking next 10 days provides another chance

Same. Maybe not a MECS but something might sneak up on us like this week has

[stormy]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I threw an edit in my last post. I dont want to come off like I'm canceling anything because I'm most certainly not. And I strongly believe winter will make a return. But man there were some high expectations going into this one. It would be a let down for me if @WxUSAFs guess happens and half the forum walks away sour lol. His guess is basically identical to what I'm thinking and I'd be more surprised if we didn't get another warned event. Just maybe not widespread 1-2'. 

The one wildcard in my head is March. For many years I expected March to be a spring month and it was right. That's changed. Maybe just cycles in cycles or maybe because oceans are warmer and it shifts climate bookends. Not sure but lately March has been better than many Dec/Jan's. March ninos are generally bad here but the front half of March can produce big storms. Maybe big storm window ends up there instead of Feb. We'll see

March has been a big winter month in my region going back to 1960.  1962 put the icing on the cake. For anyone suffering amnesia, 1993 reminded.

 

[TJ3]

4 minutes ago, stormy said:

March has been a big winter month in my region going back to 1960.  1962 put the icing on the cake. For anyone suffering amnesia, 1993 reminded.

 

I’d be fine with what 1996, 1999, and 2015 gave us 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

4-5 weeks? Perhaps for n & w folks...more like 2-3 for the beltway where people actually live  Once March comes it's pretty much done here, unfortunately (can get a little slop but I can remember few warning snows in March)

Baltimore has had more than 10” in March 18 times.  But…only 3 in the last 63 years!  It happened 15 times in 68 years before that. But hey according to some on here that’s totally a coincidence and our snow climo is just cyclical not declining.  So by that logic we are super super due! 

 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, stormy said:

March has been a big winter month in my region going back to 1960.  1962 put the icing on the cake. For anyone suffering amnesia, 1993 reminded.

 

Don’t you live over 1000 feet?  He lives in Baltimore. 

[WVclimo]

15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

4-5 weeks? Perhaps for n & w folks...more like 2-3 for the beltway where people actually live  Once March comes it's pretty much done here, unfortunately (can get a little slop but I can remember few warning snows in March)

  At BWI, just in the past decade:

March 20-21, 2018 - 4.9”

March 5, 2015 - 6.2”

March 16-17, 2014 - 8.1”

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

  At BWI, just in the past decade:

March 20-21, 2018 - 4.9”

March 5, 2015 - 6.2”

March 16-17, 2014 - 8.1”

 

 

 

He was talking about getting a HECS. He is right. The odds go way down after about Feb 20 in Baltimore of a 12”+ storm. And they’ve only had a few warning criteria march snows the last 30 years. That is rare. 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Baltimore has had more than 10” in March 18 times.  But…only 3 in the last 63 years!  It happened 15 times in 68 years before that. But hey according to some on here that’s totally a coincidence and our snow climo is just cyclical not declining.  So by that logic we are super super due! 

 

Yeah I mean it's getting hard enough in DJF...how much more difficult in March? Although you wonder if the elephant may cause crazier dynamics that may lead to more flukes...but I wouldn't want to stake a snow hope on that!