Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Icon gfs and ggem look like they are all forecasting for a different east coast 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Big changes with ns ull shifts everything north some Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 If ever there was an occasion for a northward shift ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 WB 6Z GFS, anyone awake? Looks like it will be north this run, enough to matter don't know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 WB 6Z GFS yesterday compared to today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Trend over last day is definitely north. Not enough yet...and temperature issues as well. Let's see if GEFS improves this run. WB 6Z GFS yesterday compared to today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 WB 6Z GFS last comparison to yesterday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS, anyone awake? Looks like it will be north this run, enough to matter don't know yet. I am always awake goin over models, but sometimes I am doing chores down here or doin endless yard work because spring is already here where I live lol. I don't know where everyone else is, they can always sleep when they are dead. We gotta keep up with every last model run thru at least March 12, because that HECS Extravaganza is on the way and it will bury DC in snow very soon! There will be several significant snows in DC. I don't understand why there are only two more pages on the thread every time I check in on this board! We got a massively excellent pattern in the making and a Nino Jet Stream on roids straight from hell and a HECS on the way folks! Tracker is gonna be screaming FOLKS !! and Bob Chill will have dozens of Huge Faces and DT will be roaring WOOF like a volcano in full eruption in Hawaii!! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 WB 6Z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 If the temp issues don’t get resolved soon, this may just be the perfect track rainstorm that goes into PSU’s logbook (and I’m one of those who don’t think Jan 7 really qualifies) Still time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 And I don’t see any potential for wintry weather until VDay and beyond. My target was Feb 10-12 a week or so ago, and this is the first sign of a can kick, even if its by just a few days. Clock is ticking. Think I was right to revise my snowfall forecast. Another minor/moderate event might get us to the low end of my forecast. Otherwise it will be a bust. Hope I’m wrong, but things seem to be trending that way. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 19 minutes ago, Terpeast said: And I don’t see any potential for wintry weather until VDay and beyond. My target was Feb 10-12 a week or so ago, and this is the first sign of a can kick, even if its buy a few days. Clock is ticking. Think I was right to revise my snowfall forecast. Another minor/moderate event might get us to the low end of my forecast. Otherwise it will be a bust. Hope I’m wrong, but things seem to be trending that way. It doesn’t matter in terms of ground truth but I don’t think the pattern has been can kicked. But as things are coming into greater clarity it seems unlikely the first two “waves” within the pattern are likely to produce anything. The first looks like possibly suppresses and temp issues. The second has a spacing issue. A bit too much separation between the two waves creates too muck ridging in between and likely makes the Feb 10-13 period a no go. These are disappointing developments but not necessarily a can kick. As we get deeper into the pattern I think the chances will increase. Each wave break should push the ridge further north on the Atlantic side. A better nao will mitigate wave spacing issues for future threat windows. We’re not there yet for the first couple waves. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 18 minutes ago, Terpeast said: And I don’t see any potential for wintry weather until VDay and beyond. My target was Feb 10-12 a week or so ago, and this is the first sign of a can kick, even if its by just a few days. Clock is ticking. Think I was right to revise my snowfall forecast. Another minor/moderate event might get us to the low end of my forecast. Otherwise it will be a bust. Hope I’m wrong, but things seem to be trending that way. Honestly, I had this feeling 24 hrs. ago. after I looked at the latest Weeklies. I tracked the trajectory of the lowest heights and got an uneasy feeling. I still have high hopes but not as confident as 5 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 25 minutes ago, Terpeast said: If the temp issues don’t get resolved soon, this may just be the perfect track rainstorm that goes into PSU’s logbook (and I’m one of those who don’t think Jan 7 really qualifies) Still time. Next 10 days looks like a variation of Dec with the central/eastern Canada blocking ridge. I never want to see one again lol. H5 mean plots in the rear view will look "good". PSU illustrated that earlier this month. But ground truth is anything but. We don't see that type of setup much and I learned something.... It will prob never be cold enough for snow when the streams stay separate in this regime. When they do, they keep the warm and cold air all neat and bottled up away from each other with no mechanism to mix. . So it requires a phase of sorts to pull down workable air. But phasing also curls storms and a big flat Canadian ridge really isn't a block as much as a guardrail. So the phase requirement introduces significant storm track risk. Idk man. The longwave pattern has been hostile for east coast snow door to door so far except for fits and spurts. Sometimes it's just how it goes and not some big lesson or evidence of trouble in years to come. That's where my head is. I don't see this year as some big scary piece of evidence to fear the future. We get a lot of rain and warmth on the winter. The early 80s were terrible for that stuff. I mean TERRIBLE. This winter has reminded me of those stinker periods. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Pretty big shift with the ULL near NE on 6z eps. It gives us (especially mid Atlantic) a path to victory here if that thing can keep trending E. Wonder if we see some large scale changes at 12z today…. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Pretty big shift with the ULL near NE on 6z eps. It gives us (especially mid Atlantic) a path to victory here if that thing can keep trending E. Wonder if we see some large scale changes at 12z today…. . Honestly I’d have preferred it to shift west so they could phase and bring down enough cold air for it to snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Next 10 days looks like a variation of Dec with the central/eastern Canada blocking ridge. I never want to see one again lol. H5 mean plots in the rear view will look "good". PSU illustrated that earlier this month. But ground truth is anything but. We don't see that type of setup much and I learned something.... It will prob never be cold enough for snow when the streams stay separate in this regime. When they do, they keep the warm and cold air all neat and bottled up away from each other with no mechanism to mix. . So it requires a phase of sorts to pull down workable air. But phasing also curls storms and a big flat Canadian ridge really isn't a block as much as a guardrail. So the phase requirement introduces significant storm track risk. Idk man. The longwave pattern has been hostile for east coast snow door to door so far except for fits and spurts. Sometimes it's just how it goes and not some big lesson or evidence of trouble in years to come. That's where my head is. I don't see this year as some big scary piece of evidence to fear the future. We get a lot of rain and warmth on the winter. The early 80s were terrible for that stuff. I mean TERRIBLE. This winter has reminded me of those stinker periods. Just throwing this out there, based on that case study I did of all Baltimore warning snowfalls a few years ago, if we’ve lost the ability to snow from a Hudson Bay high regime then we have truly lost a huge chunk of our snowfall climo from 20-50 years ago. The Hudson high was the second most prevalent pattern that showed up in the case study. But I notes at the time the frequency of them seemed to be on the decline compared to the other subsets. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Next 10 days looks like a variation of Dec with the central/eastern Canada blocking ridge. I never want to see one again lol. H5 mean plots in the rear view will look "good". PSU illustrated that earlier this month. But ground truth is anything but. We don't see that type of setup much and I learned something.... It will prob never be cold enough for snow when the streams stay separate in this regime. When they do, they keep the warm and cold air all neat and bottled up away from each other with no mechanism to mix. . So it requires a phase of sorts to pull down workable air. But phasing also curls storms and a big flat Canadian ridge really isn't a block as much as a guardrail. So the phase requirement introduces significant storm track risk. Idk man. The longwave pattern has been hostile for east coast snow door to door so far except for fits and spurts. Sometimes it's just how it goes and not some big lesson or evidence of trouble in years to come. That's where my head is. I don't see this year as some big scary piece of evidence to fear the future. We get a lot of rain and warmth on the winter. The early 80s were terrible for that stuff. I mean TERRIBLE. This winter has reminded me of those stinker periods. Thanks Bob for your usual bundle of wisdom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Honestly I’d have preferred it to shift west so they could phase and bring down enough cold air for it to snow. yea we have seen what it does when it shifts east(GFS). without any NS interaction, what is going to bring that south wave up the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 26 minutes ago, Terpeast said: And I don’t see any potential for wintry weather until VDay and beyond. My target was Feb 10-12 a week or so ago, and this is the first sign of a can kick, even if its by just a few days. Clock is ticking. Think I was right to revise my snowfall forecast. Another minor/moderate event might get us to the low end of my forecast. Otherwise it will be a bust. Hope I’m wrong, but things seem to be trending that way. Around mid month is probably the next shot at something after the 5th-6th. The massive Hudson ridge is gone with an improving NA and out west there is a PNA ridge with STJ undercutting. Hint of waves ejecting eastward. Have to see how much cold might be available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Around mid month is probably the next shot at something after the 5th-6th. The massive Hudson ridge is gone with an improving NA and out west there is a PNA ridge with STJ undercutting. Hint of waves ejecting eastward. Have to see how much cold might be available. Not quite cold enough by this point, but getting there. Maybe a day or so later it’ll be NN slightly BN 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, psuhoffman said: Just throwing this out there, based on that case study I did of all Baltimore warning snowfalls a few years ago, if we’ve lost the ability to snow from a Hudson Bay high regime then we have truly lost a huge chunk of our snowfall climo from 20-50 years ago. The Hudson high was the second most prevalent pattern that showed up in the case study. But I notes at the time the frequency of them seemed to be on the decline compared to the other subsets. Looking at h5 means I agree. But the mean isn't catching the flaws imo. So if this year is a sign of a pattern not working, then it includes Philly, NYC, and SNE. Can't get behind that yet. It's a aberration to me more than a sign. The "breaks" basically. If we're were raining when we shouldn't (oh boy there's been a lot of rain lol) and Philly or NYC kept piling up snow, that would make me think differently. Analog guidance has consistently shown mixy/messy/flawed since Dec 1st. The one time it lit up it snowed twice. The repetitive analog years have been bad too. Over and over with no signs of big storm history hitting the wires. Majority of the repetitive analogs were from the not great 60s winters and 80s were always there. The more recent analogs like 04 showed up a lot too. A good analogy is 92/93 and 13/14. Incredibly similar H5 pattern with incredibly unsimilar results. Fine details often make or break us as we are right on the edge of good snow climo and no snow climo lol. Maybe another Nino or hudson high pattern shows up and snows instead of rains. Wouldn't surprise me but this year doesn't want to work in the east and it's persistent 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 we are going to have a feb 14-15 type of end to the season. I think all of our snow that season happened after February 15th lol......disappointing that Jan 20-Feb 10 is so atrocious 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 @Bob Chill I don’t have the answers. I’m just speculating. You’re right sometimes we just go through stinker periods. But when does this one reach a length that’s beyond that simple explanation. The 80s had 3 moderate to strong ninos. They are all above normal snowfall and produced 4 KU and 3 other MECS between them. I do think it’s a particularly bad sign if (and I’m not there yet I seem to have more hope left for this season) a Nino can’t even break the funk. Ninos have been out funk proof way to get snow no matter what the base state period was around it in the past. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill I don’t have the answers. I’m just speculating. You’re right sometimes we just go through stinker periods. But when does this one reach a length that’s beyond that simple explanation. The 80s had 3 moderate to strong ninos. They are all above normal snowfall and produced 4 KU and 3 other MECS between them. I do think it’s a particularly bad sign if (and I’m not there yet I seem to have more hope left for this season) a Nino can’t even break the funk. Ninos have been out funk proof way to get snow no matter what the base state period was around it in the past. Oh trust me, i definitely have my radar on and am absorbing everything because this stinker period has a different feel. Kinda feels like this is normal now. Lol. Recency bias in play but still... there are trouble signs. The one thing I keep getting stuck on is warm oceans and gulf and how they effect winter storm track.... it sure seems hard to get anything to track under us from the northern stream now... always riding the edge and one of the reasons the SE has been suffering. They prob do better than us with a deep digging northern stream but it sure doesn't want to dig with a shortwave embedded lolol Eta: maybe the clipper drought is part of this. We say there's a clipper drought but I've seen a bunch skip us to the north last 5-7 years 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill I don’t have the answers. I’m just speculating. You’re right sometimes we just go through stinker periods. But when does this one reach a length that’s beyond that simple explanation. The 80s had 3 moderate to strong ninos. They are all above normal snowfall and produced 4 KU and 3 other MECS between them. I do think it’s a particularly bad sign if (and I’m not there yet I seem to have more hope left for this season) a Nino can’t even break the funk. Ninos have been out funk proof way to get snow no matter what the base state period was around it in the past. one of JBs favorite index is finally showing an El Nino look....maybe we will cash in Feb 15-35 https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 If the Feb 5 event does end up coming North to much of the mid atlantic are temps not going to be an issue??....seems as we are either going to get moisture with warmer air or dry and cold.....typical I guess? Does this have a shot at being a Mid Atlantic snow event for VA, MD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 @Bob Chill the whole warmer waters all around us not good for snow isn't complicated. I am NOT saying the Hudson High is definitely a casualty of warming. But keep in mind that kind of pattern wasn't a gradient thing where the storm track would just gradually shift north and maybe NYC holds onto snow longer than us. That regime is a generally warm one where storms would just take a good track and create just enough cold for a wet sloppy snowstorm. Temps weren't much different in Boston from DC. Even in Boston these were marginal events in that kind of pattern. So it is possible that if you warm the whole regime a couple degrees it flips the equation everywhere towards rain, its not necessarily a latitude issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 21 minutes ago, Shad said: If the Feb 5 event does end up coming North to much of the mid atlantic are temps not going to be an issue??....seems as we are either going to get moisture with warmer air or dry and cold.....typical I guess? Does this have a shot at being a Mid Atlantic snow event for VA, MD If the GFS 24 hr. trend continues the 12z run will have precipitation up into central Virginia. Surface and 850 temps. would be borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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