winter_warlock Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Well since the Ravens shit themselves today, Im hoping we get a nice mega snowstorm to track! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 This would be a plus to hopefully extend or magnify the upcoming pattern change. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: 18z gfs - similar sfc map for feb 4-6, but big changes on h5. Large scale trends are yet to come I thought so too. I thought it was going to come further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 DT update 3:57 PM · Jan 28, 2024 · 9,047 Views WORKING HYPOTHESIS so if we accept the idea that the northern Jet Stream is overdone then the southern LOW is not along the Gulf Coast on FEB 4-5 . It will be back in the Tennessee Valley and the big snowstorm threat is still alive. IMAGE 2 shows the individual 30 members of the 12z GFS Ensemble . Of the 30 members ….13 of them show a significant surface LOW that would bring significant snowfall to the Middle Atlantic region. some of these Solutions also include the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England. Some do not. Given the GFS propensity to overdo the northern branch and suppress southern systems 13 out of 30 is almost 50% which is not bad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 29 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The good pattern then continues yet again on the latest Weeklies from the 18th to the 25th & the 25th to the 3rd of March. My daffodils will love the rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 19 minutes ago, frd said: This would be a plus to hopefully extend or magnify the upcoming pattern change. Imo This gets less and less relevant the deeper into winter we get. There's always a lag anyway...something in Feb we may not see the effect of until March (a la 2018). I tune this out after awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 25 minutes ago, frd said: DT update 3:57 PM · Jan 28, 2024 · 9,047 Views WORKING HYPOTHESIS so if we accept the idea that the northern Jet Stream is overdone then the southern LOW is not along the Gulf Coast on FEB 4-5 . It will be back in the Tennessee Valley and the big snowstorm threat is still alive. IMAGE 2 shows the individual 30 members of the 12z GFS Ensemble . Of the 30 members ….13 of them show a significant surface LOW that would bring significant snowfall to the Middle Atlantic region. some of these Solutions also include the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England. Some do not. Given the GFS propensity to overdo the northern branch and suppress southern systems 13 out of 30 is almost 50% which is not bad. Why didnt you show the 18z? It was out when you posted this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Imo This gets less and less relevant the deeper into winter we get. There's always a lag anyway...something in Feb we may not see the effect of until March (a la 2018). I tune this out after awhile You must have missed the part where fred says “hopefully extend or magnify the upcoming pattern change.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DraydenWX Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 5 hours ago, Ji said: can is kicked to Feb 11th which was the target day 2 weeks ago lol I think that’s what Bob chill was trying to tell you this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 27 minutes ago, mattie g said: You must have missed the part where fred says “hopefully extend or magnify the upcoming pattern change.” Ah--I saw the chart and assumed it was talking about an SSW. My bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Hi everyone! Thought I’d simply share some of the statistical research I’ve been conducting most recently…examining the correlation between El Niño and seasonal snowfall in the Eastern U.S. Here’s the link to the post showing how each of the 5 selected Mid-Atlantic cities all saw a VERY significant decrease in seasonal snowfall during strong El Niño episodes. https://x.com/tbrite89/status/1751700478864265580?s=20 On the flip side, a few of the largest snowstorms occurred during a strong El Niño season such as 2016 and 1983. In essence, strong El Niño seasons are generally boom or bust and highly reliant on a KU event to achieve the climatological average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 March Natural Gas... really coming in low here, the vs Gasoline/Crude Oil spread is top 5 all time. https://ibb.co/3Wg2GwQ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, ncforecaster89 said: Hi everyone! Thought I’d simply share some of the statistical research I’ve been conducting most recently…examining the correlation between El Niño and seasonal snowfall in the Eastern U.S. Here’s the link to the post showing how each of the 5 selected Mid-Atlantic cities all saw a VERY significant decrease in seasonal snowfall during strong El Niño episodes. https://x.com/tbrite89/status/1751700478864265580?s=20 On the flip side, a few of the largest snowstorms occurred during a strong El Niño season such as 2016 and 1983. In essence, strong El Niño seasons are generally boom or bust and highly reliant on a KU event to achieve the climatological average. Interesting stats. I'm surprised Philly's mod Nino average (52.2") is a lot higher than Baltimore's (35.6"). I wonder which winters made the difference, because 2002-03 and 2009-10 both seemed very close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 12 minutes ago, Fozz said: Interesting stats. I'm surprised Philly's mod Nino average (52.2") is a lot higher than Baltimore's (35.6"). I wonder which winters made the difference, because 2002-03 and 2009-10 were more or less very similar in both cities. Hi Fozz, Here are the specific seasonal snowfall totals….during moderate El Niño episodes….for the two respective cities. Comparatively, the years of 1912 and 1914 stand out whereby the snowfall received in Philadelphia far exceeded the amounts recorded in Baltimore. Otherwise, they’re pretty close, overall. Philadelphia, PA: 2010: 1.5 67.3 1987: 1.2 28.2 1969: 1.1 27.9 1966:1.4 46.2 1964: 1.1 27.5 1914: 1.1 94.1 1912: 1.4. 73.9 365.1” (52.2”) Baltimore, MD: 2010: 1.5 58.1 1987: 1.2 41.7 1969: 1.1 23.3 1966: 1.4 53.2 1964: 1.1 42.9 1914: 1.1 26.0 1912: 1.4 27.8 1906: 1.3 19.5 1905: 1.1 27.6 320.1” (35.6”) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Something to keep in mind about model performance thus far this winter when tracking patterns/threats in Feb: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_31days/ GFS not doing well this year. Euro the best, with Ukie and Canadian very close behind 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 7 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said: Hi Fozz, Here are the specific seasonal snowfall totals….during moderate El Niño episodes….for the two respective cities. Comparatively, the years of 1912 and 1914 stand out whereby the snowfall received in Philadelphia far exceeded the amounts recorded in Baltimore. Otherwise, they’re pretty close, overall. Philadelphia, PA: 2010: 1.5 67.3 1987: 1.2 28.2 1969: 1.1 27.9 1966:1.4 46.2 1964: 1.1 27.5 1914: 1.1 94.1 1912: 1.4. 73.9 365.1” (52.2”) Baltimore, MD: 2010: 1.5 58.1 1987: 1.2 41.7 1969: 1.1 23.3 1966: 1.4 53.2 1964: 1.1 42.9 1914: 1.1 26.0 1912: 1.4 27.8 1906: 1.3 19.5 1905: 1.1 27.6 320.1” (35.6”) Out of curiosity, where did you get your Philly data from? I looked up the numbers and found much lower numbers for those two seasons which look a lot more believable. 1914: 34.2" 1912: 23.8" https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=phi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 8 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said: Hi Fozz, Here are the specific seasonal snowfall totals….during moderate El Niño episodes….for the two respective cities. Comparatively, the years of 1912 and 1914 stand out whereby the snowfall received in Philadelphia far exceeded the amounts recorded in Baltimore. Otherwise, they’re pretty close, overall. Philadelphia, PA: 2010: 1.5 67.3 1987: 1.2 28.2 1969: 1.1 27.9 1966:1.4 46.2 1964: 1.1 27.5 1914: 1.1 94.1 1912: 1.4. 73.9 365.1” (52.2”) Baltimore, MD: 2010: 1.5 58.1 1987: 1.2 41.7 1969: 1.1 23.3 1966: 1.4 53.2 1964: 1.1 42.9 1914: 1.1 26.0 1912: 1.4 27.8 1906: 1.3 19.5 1905: 1.1 27.6 320.1” (35.6”) The Philadelphia area is a little off. The yearly snowfall total for 2009-2010 is below as reported at Philadelphia International Airport what's 11.4"? 2009–2010 78.7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 16 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said: Hi Fozz, Here are the specific seasonal snowfall totals….during moderate El Niño episodes….for the two respective cities. Comparatively, the years of 1912 and 1914 stand out whereby the snowfall received in Philadelphia far exceeded the amounts recorded in Baltimore. Otherwise, they’re pretty close, overall. Philadelphia, PA: 2010: 1.5 67.3 1987: 1.2 28.2 1969: 1.1 27.9 1966:1.4 46.2 1964: 1.1 27.5 1914: 1.1 94.1 1912: 1.4. 73.9 365.1” (52.2”) Baltimore, MD: 2010: 1.5 58.1 1987: 1.2 41.7 1969: 1.1 23.3 1966: 1.4 53.2 1964: 1.1 42.9 1914: 1.1 26.0 1912: 1.4 27.8 1906: 1.3 19.5 1905: 1.1 27.6 320.1” (35.6”) That’s a wild difference in 1914. I wonder why Philly received so much more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Something to keep in mind about model performance thus far this winter when tracking patterns/threats in Feb:https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_31days/ GFS not doing well this year. Euro the best, with Ukie and Canadian very close behindlol the cfsThey should upgrade the gfs once in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, notvirga! said: That’s a wild difference in 1914. I wonder why Philly received so much more snow They did not. His Philly data is definitely off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 23 minutes ago, Fozz said: Out of curiosity, where did you get your Philly data from? I looked up the numbers and found much lower numbers for those two seasons which look a lot more believable. 1914: 34.2" 1912: 23.8" https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=phi Whoa! That’s a HUGE difference in totals. I relied entirely on the validity of the stats compiled at this particular website: https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/philadelphia/most-yearly-snow Not sure where they got their numbers as they appear to be vastly inaccurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said: Whoa! That’s a HUGE difference in totals. I relied entirely on the validity of the stats compiled at this particular website: https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/philadelphia/most-yearly-snow Not sure where they got their numbers as they appear to be vastly inaccurate. Makes sense. A lot of those numbers are clearly way off. It's always a good idea to know where your data is coming from. That website doesn't seem to show a source for it. NWS will always be far more trustworthy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 9 minutes ago, Fozz said: They did not. His Philly data is definitely off. No doubt I’m going to have to go back through each individual year to verify the accuracy of the data I compiled. Thank you so much for catching those inaccuracies. I shouldn’t have relied on second-hand sources. Simply trusted the data…as they had already compiled the yearly totals for virtually every observing site in the nation. Thereby, saving myself a tremendous amount of time. I verified their totals for my home city (Wilmington, NC) and they matched perfectly. With that, I wrongly assumed the rest of the data for the other respective cities were entirely accurate as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 7 hours ago, Allsnow said: Yup..better pac now kicked closer to the 15th. Gefs and eps dragging their feet with kicking the trough out Dude maybe go back and post in your forum. Nobody really cares for your nonsensical posts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Some big changes tonight with gfs and cmc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Some big changes tonight with gfs and cmc Yep just saw that. This is not done changing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Yep just saw that. This is not done changing yet. Neither changes really helped us but they were still changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 We went from cold suppressed to warm suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, Ji said: We went from cold suppressed to warm suppressed Eh, just loop back a few runs and they’re all vastly different. Models have zero clue how to handle this block right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Seems like gfs tried to phase a piece of the retrograding vortex together with the southern piece but it happened way too east and late . CMC is like a April bowling ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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