CAPE Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Even if the storm around the 5th is too far south/offshore, as it strengthens and moves NE, it reinforces the 50-50 low and the increasing h5 heights in the NAO space- could set us up for the next wave ejecting eastward around the 10th. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Even if the storm around the 5th is too far south/offshore, as it strengthens and moves NE, it reinforces the 50-50 low and the increasing h5 heights in the NAO space- could set us up for the next wave ejecting eastward around the 10th. we’re seeing it now. STJ is wide open and the Aleutian low is in a perfect spot. N ATL trough is stable 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 50/50 low and N. Pacific low as the two dominant N. Hemisphere features.. that's what it looks like in the big snowstorm examples. Let's see if the model holds those features as we get closer, like inside 12 days.. I say that because it's been so warm lately, and model flux has been above average this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 lord 14 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, CAPE said: @stormtracker How you doing with that 120? I'm waiting for either my Super Bowl party or a MECS. Seriously 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm waiting for either my Super Bowl party or a MECS. Seriously Or you could crack it open after a Raven's victory over the Mahomeboy-Swifties on Sunday. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Things are lining up. Feb is gonna be beyond good! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: Or you could crack it open after a Raven's victory over the Mahomeboy-Swifties on Sunday. Neither one are my team, but I am pulling for the Ravens. My son is a Lions fan, my friend is a Ravens fan. We're gonna be at my pad on Sunday watching both games. I hope its the Ravens vs Lions in the SB 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
understudyhero Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Feb 2010 happened starting on Super Bowl weekend didn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1751008238550634913?s=46&t=Qy0XCAzUjdru-Yl_ZvoBWA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 14 minutes ago, anotherman said: https://x.com/webberweather/status/1751008238550634913?s=46&t=Qy0XCAzUjdru-Yl_ZvoBWA Suddenly that bleep head is all over it. But seriously, I've mostly just ignored it all year, someone just posted an example of this today with BAMWX, but its become a "thing" for all these competing hypster accounts to pick a fight with each other over some inane timing difference, often intentionally being obtuse about it. Like with BAM, they go nuts about "everyone calling for cold" then cite the warmth this week, then say yea but it will get cold later in Feb, which is what everyone is saying. But they are relying on their loyal audience not knowing that and thinking they are owning everyone else. Its dishonest, annoying, and a clown show. 11 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Suddenly that bleep head is all over it. But seriously, I've mostly just ignored it all year, someone just posted an example of this today with BAMWX, but its become a "thing" for all these competing hypster accounts to pick a fight with each other over some inane timing difference, often intentionally being obtuse about it. Like with BAM, they go nuts about "everyone calling for cold" then cite the warmth this week, then say yea but it will get cold later in Feb, which is what everyone is saying. But they are relying on their loyal audience not knowing that and thinking they are owning everyone else. Its dishonest, annoying, and a clown show. Webb called me a biased weenie for using 2010 as an analog a couple months ago on another platform. i’ve been on it (as have other) since the summer. he assumed that i thought that the Nino was Modoki… i just said it could act like it at times, which seems to be true in Feb, given the warm WPAC and low MEI. he said that i picked it because it was one of the snowiest winters in the NE and MA and not much else and now he’s using it for MJO progression on twitter. you just have to laugh, no? 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: Webb called me a biased weenie for using 2010 as an analog a couple months ago on another platform. i’ve been on it (as have other) since the summer. he assumed that i thought that the Nino was Modoki… i just said it could act like it at times, which seems to be true in Feb, given the warm WPAC and low MEI. he said that i picked it because it was one of the snowiest winters in the NE and MA and not much else and now he’s using it for MJO progression on twitter. you just have to laugh, no? He’s got zero credibility at this point. Just like JB always calling for cold, and warminstas cherry-picking torch patterns. 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: Webb called me a biased weenie for using 2010 as an analog a couple months ago on another platform. i’ve been on it (as have other) since the summer. he assumed that i thought that the Nino was Modoki… i just said it could act like it at times, which seems to be true in Feb, given the warm WPAC and low MEI. he said that i picked it because it was one of the snowiest winters in the NE and MA and not much else and now he’s using it for MJO progression on twitter. you just have to laugh, no? Yea I mentally logged all his antics. 2010 was high on my analogs. I never understood his obsession with "east based nino" this year. First of all, I absolutely hate these semantic arguments. This is a spectrum. There is no hard divide where something goes from "east based" to "basin wide" to "modoki". But IMO this year is most definitely NOT east based. It's a basin wide. 1998 and 2007 were east based. This year has the same profile as 2016 and 2010 only it's in between the intensities of those other 2. And for me, IMO, the difference between basin wide and modoki is minor. The important thing is we do not want a true east based nino where the warm water is all banked up against south american and cools dramatically by the central pacific. That places the forcing too far east. But if you look at the anamaly locations of 2010 and this year they are nearly identical, this year is just stronger. There are trade offs, a true modoki is likely to have the Pacific low set up further west which can be ideal if there is no blocking...but it also can set up so far west it mutes the STJ influence and if you end up with blocking that can be less than ideal. There is also a correlation between the pacific low being tucked against AK and blocking so frankly so long as its not a super east based nino I'm fine. I don't engage in this ridiculous "is it or isnt it modoki" nonsense because the data says it doesn't even really matter. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea I mentally logged all his antics. 2010 was high on my analogs. I never understood his obsession with "east based nino" this year. First of all, I absolutely hate these semantic arguments. This is a spectrum. There is no hard divide where something goes from "east based" to "basin wide" to "modoki". But IMO this year is most definitely NOT east based. It's a basin wide. 1998 and 2007 were east based. This year has the same profile as 2016 and 2010 only it's in between the intensities of those other 2. And for me, IMO, the difference between basin wide and modoki is minor. The important thing is we do not want a true east based nino where the warm water is all banked up against south american and cools dramatically by the central pacific. That places the forcing too far east. But if you look at the anamaly locations of 2010 and this year they are nearly identical, this year is just stronger. There are trade offs, a true modoki is likely to have the Pacific low set up further west which can be ideal if there is no blocking...but it also can set up so far west it mutes the STJ influence and if you end up with blocking that can be less than ideal. There is also a correlation between the pacific low being tucked against AK and blocking so frankly so long as its not a super east based nino I'm fine. I don't engage in this ridiculous "is it or isnt it modoki" nonsense because the data says it doesn't even really matter. i mean, you tell me… here’s the projected pattern for Feb compared to strong/super Ninos and weak/moderate Ninos. you tell me 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 the 30 day mean just looks absolutely insane on H5 on the weeklies. not scoring a major storm out of this would be a failure in my eyes bc this is a crazy pattern and i can't recall the last time we had sum like this. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 5 hours ago, BlizzardNole said: We sure are overdue! Epic dumps (some did not hit the whole region): 1979, 1983, 1987, 1993, 1996, 2000, 2003, 2010 (2), 2016 -- every 4th to 5th winter on average with the longest stretches being 7 and 6 years. Now we are at 8 years... Yes and throw in a couple normal snow but very cold and it’s more often. We forget the biggies and the 10 day or longer sieges. But they happen Not every 10 years only either. The law of averages tends to be that so yes we are overdue to fulfill it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27 Author Share Posted January 27 While we look ahead to our record Feb, maybe we should look at next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 While we look ahead to our record Feb, maybe we should look at next week?Apparently a clipper bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Hard to get anything to our latitude with these shredders, but we’ll see what happens . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 First wave likely not going to be able to come N if that shredder ULL is there, but gfs eventually looks like this which is a terrific look . 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Goofy ass pattern on the GFS. Something interesting is bound to happen med/long range. Like @WinterWxLuvr said, next week is kinda interesting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 6 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I looked at the Weather Channel, DC will only reach freezing once between now and Feb 9th. What does Sue Polka say? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 One of wildest H5 runs I’ve seen in a while . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Euro 240....hmmmmm. Not bad..could be better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, Heisy said: One of wildest H5 runs I’ve seen in a while . I’m assuming the euro kicks out that diving clipper a bit quicker than the gfs to allow for some amplification? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 lol..it's a Richmond HECS 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 lol..it's a Richmond HECS Plenty of time for it to tick on north 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Euro 240....hmmmmm. Not bad..could be betterFun days ahead with this omega block. Gonna see all sorts of wild runs. We have to see how strong the “shredder” ends up being.Congrats DT, Jesus Christ 2-3’ in VA it’s still snowing at the end of the run . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 10 minutes ago, Heisy said: Fun days ahead with this omega block. Gonna see all sorts of wild runs. We have to see how strong the “shredder” ends up being. Congrats DT, Jesus Christ 2-3’ in VA it’s still snowing at the end of the run . He better enjoy for the nextt 12 hours, because it's gonna be gone at 12z 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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