psuhoffman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 22 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: There is a big difference between the advertised pattern and your analogs. That +200dm anomaly over Greenland vs +70dm is a big difference. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 31 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Ok cool, so breaking this down further, this means my popcorn eating entertainment of weenie meltdowns is likely going to be best found in the NE/Bos area forum if this pattern sets up as advertised. You should've been around in 2010. The New York crowd really lost it when Feb 6 2010 completely screwed them over. Most of New England (outside the mountains) got screwed over and over again throughout the season. In the end, I almost felt bad for them. Of course, the key word is almost. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: You should've been around in 2010. The New York crowd really lost it when Feb 6 2010 completely screwed them over. Most of New England (outside the mountains) got screwed over and over again throughout the season. In the end, I almost felt bad for them. Of course, the key word is almost. But NYC capitalized in late February and then Boxing Day Blizzard. I lived outside the city at the time and that six year period 2010-2016 was beyond amazing for snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: You should've been around in 2010. The New York crowd really lost it when Feb 6 2010 completely screwed them over. Most of New England (outside the mountains) got screwed over and over again throughout the season. In the end, I almost felt bad for them. Of course, the key word is almost. Yeah I bet that was a good time. The sad truth is, just like in life, in order for there to be winners, there has to be losers. It’s just when it comes to snow, we know who we always want the losers to be: NYC to Boston and DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: We've seen that happen, too, in the past. As one example, February 2015 here in the mid-Atlantic. From January up to about Valentine's Day, it was a pretty tame and blah winter. We missed out on some events that gave us rain and drizzle. Then an Arctic front with a blast of snow and cold went through on Feb. 14, and that ushered in a ~3 week period with an extremely cold rest of February and early March along with some decent moderate wintry events. No, it wasn't any kind of HECS-level thing but the pattern then was a lot different than this look (it wouldn't have been conducive to a major storm). Yet we still managed all that in a short turnaround time. Feb 2015 was fun. Lots of over performers in a short time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 I looked at the Weather Channel, DC will only reach freezing once between now and Feb 9th. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 19 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: But NYC capitalized in late February and then Boxing Day Blizzard. I lived outside the city at the time and that six year period 2010-2016 was beyond amazing for snowstorms. Yes they had an incredible run. So good that they surpassed the average snowfall for State College for a little while, which used to be unheard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, Fozz said: Yes they had an incredible run. So good that they surpassed the average snowfall for State College for a little while, which used to be unheard of. What was the storm where they were getting 4” an hour in Times Sq? Was that in 2010? I remember watching TWC when I lived in Norfolk and was hating my life watching it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 5 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I looked at the Weather Channel, DC will only reach freezing once between now and Feb 9th. Straight off the latest GFS op. Gotta be right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: What was the storm where they were getting 4” an hour in Times Sq? Was that in 2010? I remember watching TWC when I lived in Norfolk and was hating my life watching it Honestly they probably had multiple storms with those rates, so I can't say. I'd guess either Boxing Day 2010 or Jan 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, Fozz said: Honestly they probably had multiple storms with those rates, so I can't say. I'd guess either Boxing Day 2010 or Jan 2011. Well it wasn’t Boxing Day because I had 17” just south of Norfolk while reading about Ji wanting to kick a puppy. So maybe Jan 2011. I’ll look into that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, LeesburgWx said: Well it wasn’t Boxing Day because I had 17” just south of Norfolk while reading about Ji wanting to kick a puppy. So maybe Jan 2011. I’ll look into that one 17" near Norfolk has to be close to an all time record. That's an incredible for being so far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Webb might be on to something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 seems like everything is coming together... Pacific jet is retracting and allowing for a strong Aleutian low to form, the NAM in the troposphere remains uncoupled from the stratosphere and favorable, and we should see blocking increase via wave breaking as we head into mid-December. MJO will progress slowly into the central Pacific and the western IO, which is highly favorable for Feb Ninos. STJ is open for business alongside an equatorward Pacific jet looks like we could actually see a pretty similar MJO progression to 2010. also made a pass through 4-6 (although weaker) in mid-late Jan before rotting in phases 7-1. hovmollers also show the MJO progressing nicely 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Webb might be on to something. I was on top of that at 4am last night lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 also, this is interesting. GEFS is much stronger with the confluent ULL this run. STJ is roaring and a wave slips under the block 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: seems like everything is coming together... Pacific jet is retracting and allowing for a strong Aleutian low to form, the NAM in the troposphere remains uncoupled from the stratosphere and favorable, and we should see blocking increase via wave breaking as we head into mid-December. MJO will progress slowly into the central Pacific and the western IO, which is highly favorable for Feb Ninos. STJ is open for business alongside an equatorward Pacific jet looks like we could actually see a pretty similar MJO progression to 2010. also made a pass through 4-6 (although weaker) in mid-late Jan before rotting in phases 7-1. hovmollers also show the MJO progressing nicely Sir, we don’t allow pornography on this board. 3 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 For the storm potential for around the 5th- plenty of spread among the members, from crushed south to a track much further north. The outcome mostly hinges on the amplified Hudson ridge and how strong of a vortex gets caught underneath as the anticyclonic wave break occurs. If that vortex is displaced southward of 50-50, the wave moving eastward in the southern stream will tend to be suppressed southward or dampen and weaken as it comes east. If that vortex is weaker/further north, the shortwave can track further north. At this juncture, well ofc we just cant know. The disparity among the members can pretty clearly be seen in this panel- 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: also, this is interesting. GEFS is much stronger with the confluent ULL this run. STJ is roaring and a wave slips under the block Might be too much of a good thing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Might be too much of a good thing though. perhaps. it's a flawed threat considering heights out west are low. I would rather have an amping southern stream wave running into confluence rather than a ridge overhead, that's for sure. southern stream wave into confluence is a good way to win for someone 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 WB 18Z GEFS low positions, still a lot of spread but the only thing to track over the next week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: perhaps. it's a flawed threat considering heights out west are low. I would rather have an amping southern stream wave running into confluence rather than a ridge overhead, that's for sure. southern stream wave into confluence is a good way to win for someone It is the very beginning of our epic period. Would be nice to put another one on the board, but not the end of the world if not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 @stormtracker How you doing with that 120? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 It is the very beginning of our epic period. Would be nice to put another one on the board, but not the end of the world if not.It actually would be the end of the world imo 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 [mention=9]stormtracker[/mention] How you doing with that 120?Leave him alone. He is tracking the weekend snow event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: It is the very beginning of our epic period. Would be nice to put another one on the board, but not the end of the world if not. Surface low pressure a bit further south than we want on the mean, but not awful at this juncture. The wave interaction details up top need to be worked out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, Ji said: Leave him alone. He is tracking the weekend snow event That answers my question then lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 @brooklynwx99 I will sacrifice the Feb 5th period for a stronger, more southward displaced vortex to help induce increasing h5 heights in the NAO domain sooner. Establish that block for mid month. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: @brooklynwx99 I will sacrifice the Feb 5th period for a stronger, more southward displaced vortex to help induce increasing h5 heights in the NAO domain sooner. Establish that block for mid month. yeah, the wave breaking is wayyyyy stronger this run. nice to see it makes sense, that initial trough establishes the block or at least tries too, then it connects with the trough ejecting from the SW 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 30 days. I think we are done with seeing 500mb maps. I’m ready for surface maps and blue 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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