Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 On 1/26/2024 at 8:46 PM, brooklynwx99 said: yeah, every ensemble has been leading to that look with no push back on the timing. it’s kind of uncanny Expand As long as it's not kick-canny!! But seriously, yeah, the level of consistency with that look even as it is now almost approaching the edge of the ops range is unreal. Let's hope it is real!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 I know everyone thinks I think it shouldn’t snow anymore. No. My arguments are just we are losing marginal events. 20% maybe v 50 years ago. By whatever metric though and even factoring that in we’re so overdue for an epic dump. This is our chance. It’s been forever but everything’s lined up at the right time of year (I’d rather slightly late than early!) in a Nino and an stj about to go bonkers. It’s time to cash in. 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 there’s a 50/50 on a 7 day mean at like 3 weeks out. like holy crap lmao 9 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 17/18 El Nino's had a -SOI in January.. this one has a +3 to +5 SOI. Just putting that out there.. https://ibb.co/YT6YjLz (SOI +1 month is stronger than Nino 3.4 +1, in the south). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 On 1/26/2024 at 8:51 PM, brooklynwx99 said: there’s a 50/50 on a 7 day mean at like 3 weeks out. like holy crap lmao Expand We might not have 7" for the year by then 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 On 1/26/2024 at 8:33 PM, brooklynwx99 said: i think people underestimate how much damage can be done in 3-4 weeks, as well Expand Not me. Just about every Nino pattern match produced multiple big storms 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 Question, it appears we have an amazing potential pattern setting up. Would you rather be in NYC to Boston for this or PA south to say Richmond? I like where we are, especially if we get the 50/50 low in place for a bit 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 On 1/26/2024 at 9:04 PM, LeesburgWx said: Question, it appears we have an amazing potential pattern setting up. Would you rather be in NYC to Boston for this or PA south to say Richmond? I like where we are, especially if we get the 50/50 low in place for a bit Expand Mid Atlantic seems like a good spot. Maybe even further south if we do really go into a sustained +PNA (which may or may not happen). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 On 1/26/2024 at 9:04 PM, LeesburgWx said: Question, it appears we have an amazing potential pattern setting up. Would you rather be in NYC to Boston for this or PA south to say Richmond? I like where we are, especially if we get the 50/50 low in place for a bit Expand NYC south, really. BOS might have a hard time with strong blocking 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 On 1/26/2024 at 8:56 PM, psuhoffman said: Not me. Just about every Nino pattern match produced multiple big storms Expand Did you think by next week 2/3 we begin to see the modeled snow mean start to move South closer to our area, as well as increase? Or, do you think it is still too early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 On 1/26/2024 at 9:10 PM, frd said: Did you think by next week 2/3 we begin to see the modeled snow mean start to move South closer to our area, as well as increase? Or, do you tyhink it is still too early. Expand I don't typically look at or pay much attention to those snow maps, but a couple of people the other day posted the Euro extended mean and extended control, and there was a mention that those had a fair bit more snow for this area compared to awhile back. So maybe it's "moved" that way somewhat? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 On 1/26/2024 at 9:15 PM, Scarlet Pimpernel said: I don't typically look at or pay much attention to those snow maps, but a couple of people the other day posted the Euro extended mean and extended control, and there was a mention that those had a fair bit more snow for this area compared to awhile back. So maybe it's "moved" that way somewhat? Expand Thanks, I would hope, and expect as the ops get closer to the extended range modeling the snow mean, given the potential of the pattern should indeed move South and increase. I have not seen any snowfall mean maps recently. I am pumped for what the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 On 1/26/2024 at 9:10 PM, frd said: Did you think by next week 2/3 we begin to see the modeled snow mean start to move South closer to our area, as well as increase? Or, do you think it is still too early? Expand It jumped south a bit the last 2 days already. My guess it continues to bleed that way 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 shift the Aleutian low west a bit and there you have it there were seven major storms in these three years in Feb thru early March 12 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 On 1/26/2024 at 9:22 PM, frd said: Thanks, I would hope, and expect as the ops get closer to the extended range modeling the snow mean, given the potential of the pattern should indeed move South and increase. I have not seen any snowfall mean maps recently. I am pumped for what the models are showing. Expand The potential storm for the 5th is showing signs of being a southern slider. Have to see about temps but the snow mean has ticked up to our south. I made a post this morning illustrating why this storm may track further south, or even dampen/weaken as it moves towards the SE coast. Long way to go though, and lots of details to be worked out. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 On 1/26/2024 at 8:50 PM, psuhoffman said: I know everyone thinks I think it shouldn’t snow anymore. No. My arguments are just we are losing marginal events. 20% maybe v 50 years ago. By whatever metric though and even factoring that in we’re so overdue for an epic dump. This is our chance. It’s been forever but everything’s lined up at the right time of year (I’d rather slightly late than early!) in a Nino and an stj about to go bonkers. It’s time to cash in. Expand We sure are overdue! Epic dumps (some did not hit the whole region): 1979, 1983, 1987, 1993, 1996, 2000, 2003, 2010 (2), 2016 -- every 4th to 5th winter on average with the longest stretches being 7 and 6 years. Now we are at 8 years... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 On 1/26/2024 at 9:37 PM, brooklynwx99 said: shift the Aleutian low west a bit and there you have it there were seven major storms in these three years in Feb thru early March Expand It's going to be hard for the NAO to get that negative though. Your composites are more than double the ensemble mean in the NAO area... today was the first major +NAO Jan 21-28 since 1997. Sometimes it takes a little while to shift that state, especially recently, we haven't been able to sustain a -NAO for several Winters/decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 On 1/26/2024 at 9:44 PM, stormtracker said: @CAPE i went ahead and did it bro. Its Friday. What the hell why not. Dude said they didn’t make any last year and he can’t get any. I got the last bottle. Gratuitous Superman watch pic. Expand Awesome. It really is worth it, and even 12 bucks a bottle isn't really out of line. Get it cold, then sip it slow, and savor it- as it warms and opens up, the complex notes become more apparent. Enjoy it! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 About to open this bad boy for HH. Got it for 22 bucks which is a actually a bargain. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 On 1/26/2024 at 9:49 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It's going to be hard for the NAO to get that negative though. Your composites are more than double the ensemble mean in the NAO area... today was the first major +NAO Jan 21-28 since 1997. Sometimes it takes a little while to shift that state, especially recently, we haven't been able to sustain a -NAO for several Winters/decades. Expand we have gotten multiple significant blocks over the last two years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 On 1/26/2024 at 9:57 PM, CAPE said: About to open this bad boy for HH. Got it for 22 bucks which is a actually a bargain. Expand Nice. And you got the right glass for it too. sorry for the banter. pattern looks ripe, when the rubber band snaps back, look out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 On 1/26/2024 at 9:57 PM, brooklynwx99 said: we have gotten multiple significant blocks over the last two years Expand That's true they are increasing in duration but the NAO is positive Winter to date, and last year it was a little positive overall too. 21-22 was 4/4 positive months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 On 1/26/2024 at 10:00 PM, weatherCCB said: Nice. And you got the right glass for it too. sorry for the banter. pattern looks ripe, when the rubber band snaps back, look out Expand I grabbed that from Google images lol, but I am going to pour it in a glass like that(minus the logo) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 On 1/26/2024 at 9:09 PM, brooklynwx99 said: NYC south, really. BOS might have a hard time with strong blocking Expand Ok cool, so breaking this down further, this means my popcorn eating entertainment of weenie meltdowns is likely going to be best found in the NE/Bos area forum if this pattern sets up as advertised. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 On 1/26/2024 at 9:49 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It's going to be hard for the NAO to get that negative though. Your composites are more than double the ensemble mean in the NAO area... today was the first major +NAO Jan 21-28 since 1997. Sometimes it takes a little while to shift that state, especially recently, we haven't been able to sustain a -NAO for several Winters/decades. Expand Omfg an ensemble mean 30 days out is never going to have comparable anomaly depth to an actual historical period. Any outlier members mute the anomaly. You’ve made this statement two days in a row and it’s ridiculous 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 On 1/26/2024 at 10:06 PM, LeesburgWx said: Ok cool, so breaking this down further, this means my popcorn eating entertainment of weenie meltdowns is likely going to be best found in the NE/Bos area forum if this pattern sets up as advertised. Expand With the amount of moisture available, I don't see why Boston couldn't get in on it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 On 1/26/2024 at 10:07 PM, psuhoffman said: Omfg an ensemble mean 30 days out is never going to have comparable anomaly depth to an actual historical period. Any outlier members mute the anomaly. You’ve made this statement two days in a row and it’s ridiculous Expand There is a big difference between the advertised pattern and your analogs. That +200dm anomaly over Greenland vs +70dm is a big difference. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 wooooooosh 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 GFS Ext. Control AO collapses into negative infinity LMAO 5 1 8 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2024 Share Posted January 26, 2024 On 1/26/2024 at 10:08 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: There is a big difference between the advertised pattern and your analogs. That +200dm anomaly over Greenland vs +70dm is a big difference. Expand 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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