Pityflakes Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Nobody likes the Feb 1-2 timeframe? Seems like the 500mb energy swinging through as depicted on the GFS might pop something. I have no idea about necessary cold though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, Pityflakes said: Nobody likes the Feb 1-2 timeframe? Seems like the 500mb energy swinging through as depicted on the GFS might pop something. I have no idea about necessary cold though. Looks like northern stream probably if anything? Better chance for New England for sure there. Not sure we can squeeze something underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Looks like northern stream probably if anything? Better chance for New England for sure there. Not sure we can squeeze something underneath us. Looks a little like last weeks storm at the surface with the low developing offshore and an inverted trough. It would need to come together sooner/ a bit further south. edit- I'm referring to the 29-30th @Eskimo Joementioned above. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 12 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The Euro weeklies then lock the good pattern in from the second week of February through early March. i think we're in it for a while. on weeklies, the MJO doesn't even reach the indian ocean till march. and IO forcing becomes more favorable for us later in the winter (esp in early march). i really think once we see the onset of this pattern it's probably not going away for possibly the rest of winter here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 A bit of additional energy phases in and sharpens the shortwave just as it approaches the coast and it pops a coastal low. CMC has that basic idea too. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: A bit of additional energy phases in and sharpens the shortwave just as it approaches the coast and it pops a coastal low. CMC has that basic idea too. it just wants to snow! 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: it just wants to snow! A handful of GEFS members have a bit of snow. Not the strongest signal at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS, always a good sign to see a little snow in the middle of our two week lull (Day 5-6). WE JUST GOT LULLED! 7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 32 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: it just wants to snow! It’s got vibes of both storms last week. Maybe we can reel this one in as well as we get closer? Would be nice to get one more on the board before the second half. Best part—we get the ball to start the 3rd quarter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 06z Euro Control has the same look as GFS. Surface temps a disaster though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 You can finally see the strong positive 2m temp anomalies drying up at the end of the 6z GEFS. Hopefully by the 2nd week of February we are tracking again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 12z GFS continuing the same them as 6z for Sunday night. Hmm. SFC is some shit though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, stormtracker said: 12z GFS continuing the same them as 6z for Sunday night. Hmm keeps improving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 100% sure the SV maps of 4-6 inches with sfc above freezing and daytime snow for just around DC is going to verify. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 100% sure the SV maps of 4-6 inches with sfc above freezing and daytime snow for just around DC is going to verify. weatherbell has it largely from 4-10am. SFC 34-36. I guess verbatim it's ripping but obviously weird. also including light snow out west on Tues 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: weatherbell has it largely from 4-10am. SFC 34-36. I guess verbatim it's ripping but obviously weird. also including light snow out west on Tues Loudoun county really needs Ji to move 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: weatherbell has it largely from 4-10am. SFC 34-36. I guess verbatim it's ripping but obviously weird. also including light snow out west on Tues Legit lol'd. Anyway, what's after this nonsense? Early feb is our next window? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 GGEM has a similar look with less expansive precip in the 6-12z Monday timeframe. Column is fine above 950mb. Question appears to be can heavy precip cool the surface down to 33-34 so some snow can accumulate. 35 is really borderline and in my experience, 36 is too warm. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: GGEM has a similar look with less expansive precip in the 6-12z Monday timeframe. Column is fine above 950mb. Question appears to be can heavy precip cool the surface down to 33-34 so some snow can accumulate. 35 is really borderline and in my experience, 36 is too warm. This look of the snowfall on the Canadian makes more sense, if this "event" ever really had a chance for anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24 Author Share Posted January 24 It’s gonna snow 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s gonna snow Yep we broke the ice last week, it will snow now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 We got "lucky" twice last week but that was when there was plenty of cold air. I don't think we luck into this one this time, except for higher elevations (I'm looking at you, PSU). For the rest of us, we wait until 2nd week of Feb, maybe a bit sooner. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: it just wants to snow! Snowing everytime it possibly could was theme of 86-87 and to lesser degree late Jan into Feb 95. Both in my winter outlook analogs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Snowing everytime it possibly could was theme of 86-87 and to lesser degree late Jan into Feb 95. Both in my winter outlook analogs Too bad this year hasn’t hasn’t had that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 18 minutes ago, Ji said: Too bad this year hasn’t hasn’t had that The last two events certainly did. The depresso act grows Real Old. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: The last two events certainly did. The depresso act grows Real Old. we have had like 11 events this winter...2 have snowed lol....we are not a snowtown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 pretty large 00z -> 12z shift from the EURO. 12z 00z 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The euro is good for next monday morning if you don't know how this map works (precip is 6z-12z, 850T is 12z) 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 minutes ago, Ji said: we have had like 11 events this winter...2 have snowed lol....we are not a snowtown Pattern change dim bulb depresso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The euro is good for next monday morning if you don't know how this map works (precip is 6z-12z, 850T is 12z)850s/925s are fine by NLT 6z for most. Need heavier precip to overcome surface temps the way WxBell is resolving it at least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts