clskinsfan Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 45 minutes ago, mappy said: IMO is should snow like 2013/2014 every winter. I spent the past 3 winters looking at the MJO and posting it here numerous times. I came to conclusion that it means absolutely nothing for us. We fail when it is in both good and bad phases. Enso means much more. It may be that it matters more in a Nino than a Nina though? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 7 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Like one. But we were unlucky, and we still got a HECS, which we still could get! But that isn’t relevant to the point I am making, which has nothing to do with whether or not I think this season will end up great or a dud or anywhere in between. My point was that I am confused that some posters seem to think reaching climo in a Nino is good and it’s not. If we swing and miss on Nino’s, or even if we end up reaching climo in them, your average seasonal snowfall is going to be basically cut in half. And yes, sometimes a Nino doesn’t work out and you get screwed. But you don’t want that becoming a pattern. So let’s say BWI averages 20 a year and reaches 20 this year. Some people will think that’s great. It’s actually pretty bad and if it continues, BWI’s real average is going to drop to like 10 inches a year. Might even be less than that. Congrats, you are now Charlotte! 2009-2010 was amazing. I’d love to see it again even though it was once in a lifetime. But we don’t need 2009-2010 to have a successful Nino. No one is saying we need 100 inches of snow. But do we need something like 2003? Yeah, we do. 2002-03 was the third snowiest winter on record in Baltimore, going back over 130 years. And second snowiest until 2010. On top of that it was the 8th coldest winter on record. Expecting every moderate or borderline strong El Niño to be like 2003 is incredibly unrealistic. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: I spent the past 3 winters looking at the MJO and posting it here numerous times. I came to conclusion that it means absolutely nothing for us. We fail when it is in both good and bad phases. Enso means much more. It may be that it matters more in a Nino than a Nina though? It seems to me it impacts us negatively when it is in the bad phases but doesn't necessarily help us when in the good ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Whoops, looks like I messed up again. There goes all my progress here, lol Dang emotional post in the wrong place in the moment, smh Sorry y'all, I'll get back on the wagon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 the 00z GEFS started showing that look but it may be showing it too soon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Like one. But we were unlucky, and we still got a HECS, which we still could get! But that isn’t relevant to the point I am making, which has nothing to do with whether or not I think this season will end up great or a dud or anywhere in between. My point was that I am confused that some posters seem to think reaching climo in a Nino is good and it’s not. If we swing and miss on Nino’s, or even if we end up reaching climo in them, your average seasonal snowfall is going to be basically cut in half. And yes, sometimes a Nino doesn’t work out and you get screwed. But you don’t want that becoming a pattern. So let’s say BWI averages 20 a year and reaches 20 this year. Some people will think that’s great. It’s actually pretty bad and if it continues, BWI’s real average is going to drop to like 10 inches a year. Might even be less than that. Congrats, you are now Charlotte! 2009-2010 was amazing. I’d love to see it again even though it was once in a lifetime. But we don’t need 2009-2010 to have a successful Nino. No one is saying we need 100 inches of snow. But do we need something like 2003? Yeah, we do. In my initial post (that you replied to) I didn't mention anything about climo or expectations. We need periods with a favorable pattern to give us a chance for snow. We just had one and we got some snow. Guidance suggests the next favorable period will be centered on mid Feb. We are probably 10 days away from the next trackable threat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 11 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Like one. But we were unlucky, and we still got a HECS, which we still could get! But that isn’t relevant to the point I am making, which has nothing to do with whether or not I think this season will end up great or a dud or anywhere in between. My point was that I am confused that some posters seem to think reaching climo in a Nino is good and it’s not. If we swing and miss on Nino’s, or even if we end up reaching climo in them, your average seasonal snowfall is going to be basically cut in half. And yes, sometimes a Nino doesn’t work out and you get screwed. But you don’t want that becoming a pattern. So let’s say BWI averages 20 a year and reaches 20 this year. Some people will think that’s great. It’s actually pretty bad and if it continues, BWI’s real average is going to drop to like 10 inches a year. Might even be less than that. Congrats, you are now Charlotte! 2009-2010 was amazing. I’d love to see it again even though it was once in a lifetime. But we don’t need 2009-2010 to have a successful Nino. No one is saying we need 100 inches of snow. But do we need something like 2003? Yeah, we do. Agree. You'd much rather have the door open for a chance through what is historically our best window for snow. In the moment, seeing the torch didn't feel great and I put a panic room post here. But @CAPE is right, though...in 14 days it COULD happen. We've done it before in small windows. But I also agree with you--we HAVE to get above average this year. More pressure than usual for that to happen, imo And to me...in order to get the above average totals some predicted, the need for a HECS or MECS goes up given the shorter window (nobody tell me about March please, lol) But again, we have done it before...it's not over just because of the next two weeks. All we can do is watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 We seem to be experiencing a dose of reality this morning as we talk about winter weather patterns. Some seem to remember the 60's as the coldest/snowiest decade in the last 100 years and lament recent years as if we now live in a semi tropical climate. I lived through the 60's, I have good memories and good records. Sure, the 60's had many cold patterns during winter and several heavy snowfall winters. I remember ice skating on area rivers and snow sledding when it seemed snow was always on the ground. Honestly, my recall of the 60's focuses on the very cold snowy times. But guess what, as Terpeast said, we always seem to remember the cold snowy times and forget about the other warm, rainy times. March 5 - 7 in 1962, the Shenandoah Valley received 24 - 36 inches of snow during the Great Ash Wednesday Storm............................ Guess what the month preceding that storm was like? Feb. 4 of 62 at Staunton was very mild at 64 degrees, Feb. 5 of 62 saw 70 degrees, Feb. 6 very mild with 66 degrees, Feb 23 of 62 nice at 66 degrees, Feb. 28 had 68 degrees. February of 1962 gave Staunton 2.39" of rain and no snow. March 1 of 1962 found folks saying spring is here at 70 degrees !!!! 5 - 6 days later we received 2 - 3 feet of snow!!! March 9-10 produced another 5 inches of snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 16 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I spent the past 3 winters looking at the MJO and posting it here numerous times. I came to conclusion that it means absolutely nothing for us. We fail when it is in both good and bad phases. Enso means much more. It may be that it matters more in a Nino than a Nina though? I have no idea what you're talking about. MJO, enso, etc... none of that makes any sense to me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I have no idea what you're talking about. MJO, enso, etc... none of that makes any sense to me. Mjo screws us in the bad phases and dosent help us in the good phases 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 18 minutes ago, Ji said: Mjo screws us in the bad phases and dosent help us in the good phases i honestly don't care lol. it will snow, or it won't. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 17 minutes ago, mappy said: i honestly don't care lol. it will snow, or it won't. It will. 0.0” from here until spring is the least likely outcome imo 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 54 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I spent the past 3 winters looking at the MJO and posting it here numerous times. I came to conclusion that it means absolutely nothing for us. We fail when it is in both good and bad phases. Enso means much more. It may be that it matters more in a Nino than a Nina though? MJO and ENSO are intertwined. Location and magnitude of tropical forcing does matter. Ofc so do a lot of other indices. Complex and esoteric. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: I spent the past 3 winters looking at the MJO and posting it here numerous times. I came to conclusion that it means absolutely nothing for us. We fail when it is in both good and bad phases. Enso means much more. It may be that it matters more in a Nino than a Nina though? When considering the history of the modern climate, we're working with a statistically insignificant dataset to determine if any of these indexes or analogs mean anything outside of being a coincidence. Best bet is to pray to the snow gods and hope for the best.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Maybe the recent cooling near the MC will encourage a shift in the convection further eastward into the Central Pac. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, mappy said: It was fantastic! I could def live with getting 70" every winter hahaha It was one of my favorites. Probably the closest we’ll ever get to a wall to wall winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Honestly we need a bunch of rain to wash all the salt off the roads. It is mind blowing how much they dumped with the last couple storms. Very bad for our vehicles. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 hours ago, Terpeast said: I think many of us, including myself, have selective memories of our winters where we live. We tend to remember the snowiest highlights of each winter, while memories of warm/rain with brown ground fade away. This effectively magnifies how much snow we think we ought to see here. Before y’all come at me, I say again that I’m guilty of this too Plus kids here got 10 full days of sledding. I’m sure they’ll have good memories of this period. You are absolutely right. And this brought to mind another thing: These things look different from the vantage point of tracking. Here's what I mean: I only started to actively track in 2014 (in the midst of that active 3-year period of snow events). Prior to that, there was no knowledge of ridges and troughs, ehat was a favorable period vs a torch (although obviously you knew when it was warm, lol), the various mechanisms in place. So in the minds eye, you're not gonna remember the ebbs and flows as much, because it was like..."Awesome, the TV met said snow!" but the lags in between are less memorable because you didn't really know what was going on and just went about your life, lol So it is indeed possible to be born here, and yet start tracking and you still learn things about your climo. I think seeing the "why" helps you see things in a bit of a different way. After watching all the other enso states play out from a tracking vantage point...this is my first strong (but not ape super) Niño...so though I'm in my early 30s and have lived here all my life, I'm definitely still learning from THIS vantage point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Wxdood said: Honestly we need a bunch of rain to wash all the salt off the roads. It is mind blowing how much they dumped with the last couple storms. Very bad for our vehicles. I feel like they overdo it sometimes...the roads look like they need lotion! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 7 minutes ago, Wxdood said: Honestly we need a bunch of rain to wash all the salt off the roads. It is mind blowing how much they dumped with the last couple storms. Very bad for our vehicles. .....not to mention what it does to the natural world.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 It is what it is. Not much point to bellyaching. It'll be 65 Friday. Touch grass and enjoy it. Will whining change anything? 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 31 minutes ago, Fozz said: It was one of my favorites. Probably the closest we’ll ever get to a wall to wall winter. Pretty sure I recorded over 18 inches in each individual month from December through March and broke 90 inches for a total. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 37 minutes ago, CAPE said: Maybe the recent cooling near the MC will encourage a shift in the convection further eastward into the Central Pac. Rapidly weakening already set in motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Pretty sure I recorded over 18 inches in each individual month from December through March and broke 90 inches for a total. Sounds about right. I think there was a 6-8 week stretch from Jan-March where we had snow on the ground. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 11 minutes ago, anotherman said: .....not to mention what it does to the natural world.... 100%. Terrible for the creeks and ultimately the Chesapeake Bay i would imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, Wxdood said: 100%. Terrible for the creeks and ultimately the Chesapeake Bay i would imagine. and people's wells! I can attest that the salt on the roads have contaminated my well at my house. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 11 minutes ago, mappy said: Sounds about right. I think there was a 6-8 week stretch from Jan-March where we had snow on the ground. Different climate up your way; the longest recorded stretch with snow on the ground in DC is 29 days from Jan 20 to Feb 17, 1961 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Op generally looks like ensembles now. The question happens few days after this time period. Does -epo pop, does the ridge heights migrate to AO territory etc. it’s what the weeklies do so that’s the hope . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 29 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It is what it is. Not much point to bellyaching. It'll be 65 Friday. Touch grass and enjoy it. Will whining change anything? Nothing new for us. I went back as far as 1970 and found only 10 years where the high temperature for January did not reach 60 at DCA. Five of those years, the month topped out at 59, once at 58 and once at 57. About a third of those years there were days that reached 70+. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 14 minutes ago, mappy said: and people's wells! I can attest that the salt on the roads have contaminated my well at my house. That too... didn't realize it went that far. That's definitely awful, sorry to hear that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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