Wxdood Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, paulythegun said: this analog for next weekend shows what might have possibly been with some cold air Wrong thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, frd said: LOL. Second time I believe. Don't tell @CAPE Poor Judah, weather does not exsist in a vacum. THE PV and the HL should become more favorable again with a decent Pac and plenty of threats to traffic I am very excited myself for the period Feb 10 th to March 10 th. all the seasonals had Feb as our best month....there might be a bit of a delay but now the ensembles and weeklies are seeing it. Plus the analogs support this....so yea i wouldnt cancel the winter now lol. People havent been trying to cancel this winter since Mid December 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 the stronger SPV doesn’t couple, so Judah’s point doesn’t even hold water 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: the stronger SPV doesn’t couple, so Judah’s point doesn’t even hold water Yeah, he misses the mark often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, dailylurker said: The way people were talking around here I thought we were in for 60's and 70's lol. I looked at my 10 day and it looks pretty normal. I saw one day of 60 degrees. Still deep winter today. someone can correct me, but i think the problem is not just that it's warm here. it's the fear that our cold source (canada) would get scoured out as well. so you've got mild air here with anomalously warm air north of it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Don't know why you guys think you can claim anything is true.. fast must mean right. here, this was a jet extension too. https://ibb.co/4ZStGKw oooo look at the fancy jet extension. bright colors https://ibb.co/vVrZZ8X "jet extension" has to be in the running for weenie term of the 23-24 winter.. which random twitter post did that one come out of? 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 looking at the euro weeklies 7 day precip anomolies there are above normal windows around Feb 6-10 then last week of feb into early March(i guess thatsn when we will have our HECS) no below normal windows though! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Lol another one.. Pacific jet extensions BAD. TORCH!! These fuckin guys. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Haven't checked in on the pattern post say 2/5, how's it looking after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I remember a lot of talk about upcoming SSW warming event and the great results forthcoming from it. Is that part of what benefited us over last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 15 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: I remember a lot of talk about upcoming SSW warming event and the great results forthcoming from it. Is that part of what benefited us over last week? I would say so. We had 2 Stratosphere warming events, 1st one occurred Dec 25- Jan 9. A 2nd one occurred Jan 13-21. The 12/25 one averages a +25 day lag to -NAO impact, but that can vary as much as +10-15 days. We had a solid -NAO 1-4 to 1-19, so that's +10 days after the first 10mb warming. Under that extreme "downwelled" -NAO we did see 2 waves stay suppressed, giving us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 WB 12Z EPS looks predominantly warm through February 6 at this time. Hopefully the few colder members will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 10 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Haven't checked in on the pattern post say 2/5, how's it looking after that? I think we will be tracking on FEb 8....for the following week. to get anything before Feb 10 from what i am seeing is going to be threading the needle....Feb 5-10 might offer a surprise but the goodness is after i think 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, Yeoman said: "jet extension" has to be in the running for weenie term of the 23-24 winter.. which random twitter post did that one come out of? It seemed to have started with that "Arabian jet" post and got legs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 WB EURO weeklies are less cold for Feb. 10-17 compared to 2 weeks ago, hopefully still cold enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 It’s been the same progression run after run now. We just have to hope once we get in range to the main ensembles they do the same. We from this…. Which is what end of ensembles look currently, to (second image) few days later. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 33 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB EURO weeklies are less cold for Feb. 10-17 compared to 2 weeks ago, hopefully still cold enough. less chance for supression and a 1973 type southern storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 30 minutes ago, Heisy said: It’s been the same progression run after run now. We just have to hope once we get in range to the main ensembles they do the same. We from this…. Which is what end of ensembles look currently, to (second image) few days later. . happy valentines day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Lol another one.. Pacific jet extensions BAD. TORCH!! These fuckin guys. mmm.. looks like the EPO and NAO are both + there. I bet as you trend closer to the event, it becomes more index-related Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The 18 z GFS is catching up with the ECM Weeklies.................................................................. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The 18 z GFS is catching up with the ECM Weeklies.................................................................. I think it’s actually ahead of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 34 minutes ago, Ji said: I think it’s actually ahead of it! Granted it's the op but the general idea after 240 is beautiful in the PAC. That Aleutian low not only pumps the EPO ridge but if you run a loop, that low is ejecting sw after sw into the stj and continental US. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 384hr looks good on the 18z GFS ensemble mean, +PNA trying to develop. We just have to get past our 2 waves of +EPO here in the next 9 days. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 OP gfs has a poleward ridge day 7 which ends up muting the warm up because shortwaves keep shooting down towards NE. Its own ensembles don’t really have that (they have a ridge but not as far N) and euro camp doesn’t so I’d be careful with rushing things. Maybe the first week of Feb isn’t as warm as we think, but we’ll see… . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Getting there. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Getting there.Man…20 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Man…20 days away 20 days to catch up on sleep. Who knows. We might luck into another appetizer before that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 20 days to catch up on sleep. Who knows. We might luck into another appetizer before that. Punting 20 days of winter in our prime is super fun! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 11 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: 20 days to catch up on sleep. Who knows. We might luck into another appetizer before that. You just might! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 You just might!I'd like a repeat of Feb 2003 please Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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