Terpeast Posted January 21, 2024 Share Posted January 21, 2024 On 1/21/2024 at 11:25 PM, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS. Still keeping an eye on late next weekend...not dead yet... Expand That’s a big step back from previous runs. Now looking like an interior north hit with rain down here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dendrimer77 Posted January 21, 2024 Share Posted January 21, 2024 On 1/21/2024 at 11:25 PM, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS. Still keeping an eye on late next weekend...not dead yet... Expand Sadly, that looks like shit now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 Looks like quite the extended break. Epic week however. Can’t complain even if this was it for winter. Need to detox anyway. Booze and models don’t mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 if Feb 6-March 7 looks like that…we should get more snow. Just have to wait a couple weeks. 17 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 12:38 AM, psuhoffman said: if Feb 6-March 7 looks like that…we should get more snow. Just have to wait a couple weeks. Expand Let’s hope this doesn’t get can kicked, we cannot afford that 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2024 Author Share Posted January 22, 2024 With the euro moving south, the GFS very close, the Canadian suppressed, I’d say there’s still a chance for the weekend. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 12:46 AM, Terpeast said: Let’s hope this doesn’t get can kicked, we cannot afford thatAs long as it falls at night….we can do well as late as March 21But we’ll worry about that after pd3@psuhoffman when is jb going to analog 93? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 The weekend event is a thread the needle but not impossible. There’s a N/S wave that dives SE across Canada. How that is timed with the southern wave etc will determine what happens. Euro actually brings the N/S piece out ahead which built in some HP and is why it showed a snow event for NYC etc. would really need a perfect timed scenario idk. Can see the two pieces of energy here, our main shortwave and the one in SE Canada . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 12:55 AM, Heisy said: The weekend event is a thread the needle but not impossible. There’s a N/S wave that dives SE across Canada. How that is timed with the southern wave etc will determine what happens. Euro actually brings the N/S piece out ahead which built in some HP and is why it showed a snow event for NYC etc. would really need a perfect timed scenario idk. Can see the two pieces of energy here, our main shortwave and the one in SE Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2024 Author Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/21/2024 at 9:33 AM, Ji said: Please stop posting garbage in the long range thread. There is a banter thread Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Expand Bump 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 Hopefully we can thread the needle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 12:09 AM, BristowWx said: Looks like quite the extended break. Epic week however. Can’t complain even if this was it for winter. Need to detox anyway. Booze and models don’t mix. Expand Yeah I need a break, too. I can’t imagine a year like 2013-14 while working remotely and taking care of my daughter who is almost 3. After a crazy week, I took a nap today and slept for almost 4 hours! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 1:32 AM, Ji said: Hopefully we can thread the needle We never do, lol. Wouldn’t get my hopes up for this one. It’s not impossible to see some flakes though especially interior. Rocking Feb incoming though let’s do that. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 1:44 AM, Terpeast said: Yeah I need a break, too. I can’t imagine a year like 2013-14 while working remotely and taking care of my daughter who is almost 3. After a crazy week, I took a nap today and slept for almost 4 hours! Expand I think I’d find a way to survive, lol, but yeah, I remember that year being exhausting. I also think the period from like mid January through early February in 2010 was tiring as well. But I’d be cool running that back! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 K Guys, we got model runs to discuss!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 WB 0Z EPS, still watching Sunday-Monday period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 Need a south trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 9:32 AM, Jebman said: Need a south trend. Expand Yup...or maybe the low intensifies off the coast faster and makes it just cold enough, there is nothing else to watch the next week so I will keep an eye on it....better than whining about the warmth etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 0z Euro Op run was close for northern MD for next Sunday. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 10:43 AM, Blizzard of 93 said: 0z Euro Op run was close for northern MD for next Sunday. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2024 Author Share Posted January 22, 2024 It certainly seems that the train wreck two weeks ahead has been embellished a bit. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 1:18 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: It certainly seems that the train wreck two weeks ahead has been embellished a bit. Expand I think we're gonna have another wintry period or two before the season's out and I don't think there's anything we can do about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 of course i was hoping it would be a feb 1 to Feb 20 window.....but it is what is. Feb 10-March 10. Lets see what happens. Area wide we are in the 10-13 inch zone right now One Mecs of 15 and one Secs of 8 puts us 33-36. Thats a very good winter One Hecs of 25 and one secs of 5 puts us 40-45 inches...that would be pretty epic around here One Hecs of 35 and a secs of 3....would put us over 50 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 2:08 PM, Ji said: of course i was hoping it would be a feb 1 to Feb 20 window.....but it is what is. Feb 10-March 10. Lets see what happens. Area wide we are in the 10-13 inch zone right now One Mecs of 15 and one Secs of 8 puts us 33-36. Thats a very good winter One Hecs of 25 and one secs of 5 puts us 40-45 inches...that would be pretty epic around One Hecs of 35 and a secs of 3....would put us over 50 Expand HECS or bust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 2:12 PM, osfan24 said: HECS or bust. Expand The expectation of every Moderate to Strong El Nino should be a a HECS. When is the last time we had one without a HECS or high end MECS? 97-98? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 1:18 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: It certainly seems that the train wreck two weeks ahead has been embellished a bit. Expand As you've been saying don't sleep on Sunday. Especially for The western and Northern crews. Could be a rain to snow scenario if things break right for our areas. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 2:15 PM, Ji said: The expectation of every Moderate to Strong El Nino should be a a HECS. When is the last time we had one without a HECS or high end MECS? 97-98? Expand 98 is showing up on d11+ analogs lol. But not at the top. Winter wx is making a small comeback on the analogs down the line already. That's encouraging considering how terrible they have looked last 5 days lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 2:15 PM, Ji said: The expectation of every Moderate to Strong El Nino should be a a HECS. When is the last time we had one without a HECS or high end MECS? 97-98? Expand On 1/22/2024 at 2:36 PM, Bob Chill said: 98 is showing up on d11+ analogs lol. But not at the top. Winter wx is making a small comeback on the analogs down the line already. That's encouraging considering how terrible they have looked last 5 days lol Expand We had “The Look” in 97-98 multiple times and got phasing southern stream coastal bombs 3 times I think? Just that temps were in the 40s and the rain/snow line was around frostburg… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 On 1/22/2024 at 2:39 PM, WxUSAF said: We had “The Look” in 97-98 multiple times and got phasing southern stream coastal bombs 3 times I think? Just that temps were in the 40s and the rain/snow line was around frostburg… Expand yep. lots of warmish rainstorms for the 95 corridor. fun to click through with this map: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2024 Share Posted January 22, 2024 I'm just glad we are not seeing a can kick, GEFS and EPS at the end of their runs are rolling to a better pattern. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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