Terpeast Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS. Still keeping an eye on late next weekend...not dead yet... That’s a big step back from previous runs. Now looking like an interior north hit with rain down here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dendrimer77 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS. Still keeping an eye on late next weekend...not dead yet... Sadly, that looks like shit now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Looks like quite the extended break. Epic week however. Can’t complain even if this was it for winter. Need to detox anyway. Booze and models don’t mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 if Feb 6-March 7 looks like that…we should get more snow. Just have to wait a couple weeks. 17 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: if Feb 6-March 7 looks like that…we should get more snow. Just have to wait a couple weeks. Let’s hope this doesn’t get can kicked, we cannot afford that 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 With the euro moving south, the GFS very close, the Canadian suppressed, I’d say there’s still a chance for the weekend. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Let’s hope this doesn’t get can kicked, we cannot afford thatAs long as it falls at night….we can do well as late as March 21But we’ll worry about that after pd3@psuhoffman when is jb going to analog 93? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The weekend event is a thread the needle but not impossible. There’s a N/S wave that dives SE across Canada. How that is timed with the southern wave etc will determine what happens. Euro actually brings the N/S piece out ahead which built in some HP and is why it showed a snow event for NYC etc. would really need a perfect timed scenario idk. Can see the two pieces of energy here, our main shortwave and the one in SE Canada . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The weekend event is a thread the needle but not impossible. There’s a N/S wave that dives SE across Canada. How that is timed with the southern wave etc will determine what happens. Euro actually brings the N/S piece out ahead which built in some HP and is why it showed a snow event for NYC etc. would really need a perfect timed scenario idk. Can see the two pieces of energy here, our main shortwave and the one in SE Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 15 hours ago, Ji said: Please stop posting garbage in the long range thread. There is a banter thread Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Bump 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Hopefully we can thread the needle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Looks like quite the extended break. Epic week however. Can’t complain even if this was it for winter. Need to detox anyway. Booze and models don’t mix. Yeah I need a break, too. I can’t imagine a year like 2013-14 while working remotely and taking care of my daughter who is almost 3. After a crazy week, I took a nap today and slept for almost 4 hours! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Hopefully we can thread the needle We never do, lol. Wouldn’t get my hopes up for this one. It’s not impossible to see some flakes though especially interior. Rocking Feb incoming though let’s do that. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah I need a break, too. I can’t imagine a year like 2013-14 while working remotely and taking care of my daughter who is almost 3. After a crazy week, I took a nap today and slept for almost 4 hours! I think I’d find a way to survive, lol, but yeah, I remember that year being exhausting. I also think the period from like mid January through early February in 2010 was tiring as well. But I’d be cool running that back! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 K Guys, we got model runs to discuss!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 WB 0Z EPS, still watching Sunday-Monday period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Need a south trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 12 minutes ago, Jebman said: Need a south trend. Yup...or maybe the low intensifies off the coast faster and makes it just cold enough, there is nothing else to watch the next week so I will keep an eye on it....better than whining about the warmth etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 0z Euro Op run was close for northern MD for next Sunday. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 0z Euro Op run was close for northern MD for next Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 It certainly seems that the train wreck two weeks ahead has been embellished a bit. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 39 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It certainly seems that the train wreck two weeks ahead has been embellished a bit. I think we're gonna have another wintry period or two before the season's out and I don't think there's anything we can do about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 of course i was hoping it would be a feb 1 to Feb 20 window.....but it is what is. Feb 10-March 10. Lets see what happens. Area wide we are in the 10-13 inch zone right now One Mecs of 15 and one Secs of 8 puts us 33-36. Thats a very good winter One Hecs of 25 and one secs of 5 puts us 40-45 inches...that would be pretty epic around here One Hecs of 35 and a secs of 3....would put us over 50 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, Ji said: of course i was hoping it would be a feb 1 to Feb 20 window.....but it is what is. Feb 10-March 10. Lets see what happens. Area wide we are in the 10-13 inch zone right now One Mecs of 15 and one Secs of 8 puts us 33-36. Thats a very good winter One Hecs of 25 and one secs of 5 puts us 40-45 inches...that would be pretty epic around One Hecs of 35 and a secs of 3....would put us over 50 HECS or bust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: HECS or bust. The expectation of every Moderate to Strong El Nino should be a a HECS. When is the last time we had one without a HECS or high end MECS? 97-98? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It certainly seems that the train wreck two weeks ahead has been embellished a bit. As you've been saying don't sleep on Sunday. Especially for The western and Northern crews. Could be a rain to snow scenario if things break right for our areas. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 19 minutes ago, Ji said: The expectation of every Moderate to Strong El Nino should be a a HECS. When is the last time we had one without a HECS or high end MECS? 97-98? 98 is showing up on d11+ analogs lol. But not at the top. Winter wx is making a small comeback on the analogs down the line already. That's encouraging considering how terrible they have looked last 5 days lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 23 minutes ago, Ji said: The expectation of every Moderate to Strong El Nino should be a a HECS. When is the last time we had one without a HECS or high end MECS? 97-98? 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: 98 is showing up on d11+ analogs lol. But not at the top. Winter wx is making a small comeback on the analogs down the line already. That's encouraging considering how terrible they have looked last 5 days lol We had “The Look” in 97-98 multiple times and got phasing southern stream coastal bombs 3 times I think? Just that temps were in the 40s and the rain/snow line was around frostburg… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We had “The Look” in 97-98 multiple times and got phasing southern stream coastal bombs 3 times I think? Just that temps were in the 40s and the rain/snow line was around frostburg… yep. lots of warmish rainstorms for the 95 corridor. fun to click through with this map: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I'm just glad we are not seeing a can kick, GEFS and EPS at the end of their runs are rolling to a better pattern. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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